oversold、overboughtWhat do you use as an indicator of?
RSIYaRCI、StochasticsOscillator systems such as these are major, but the divergence rate with the 25-day moving average (25MA) =“25MA divergence rate”It is also often used.
andWhat makes wrong explanations even for professionals such as analysts and commentators is the “25MA divergence rate”It is.
At the 25MA divergence rate
・Overbought by +5% or more
・Oversold at -5% or less
It is commonly referred to as.
Therefore, it is explained that if the divergence with 25MA is +5% or more, it is overbought and will soon be on the ceiling, and if it falls below -5%, it is oversold and it will soon bottom out.
Is that really the case?
For example, consider the following two cases.
A pattern:
It has been in the range for 2 months, and the 25MA divergence rate has remained almost flat from -1% to +1%.
It began to drop rapidly from there, and it has dropped by 4% in the last 2 days...
With this, the 25MA divergence rate is -5%.
B pattern:
It has risen 2,500 yen in the last 2 months, fell 3000 yen, and although it went back 2000 yen, it has dropped 1500 yen. Yesterday today's...

Today 26th is the Bolivan reversal.
I talked about it as the only reversal expectation sign in last night's video, but I also talked about the condition that it is possible to recapture -2σ by a large margin or finish above -2σ on a closing price basis. The price increase is pretty heavy, isn't it?
Although yesterday's 2Q GDP recovered to 38310 yen, it was eventually sold and pushed back to the level of 37750-37850.
Currently, -2σ is around 37780 yen. 37850 as of 9:35. It is expected that the decline will stop once if it continues to be above -2σ.

Micron's business cycle
As a memory chip design and manufacturing specialist, Micron operates in a cyclical industry. The computer memory market is greatly affected by supply-demand dynamics in last-stage target markets such as smartphones, data center systems, and modern automobiles with large data processing capabilities.
Historically, Micron has experienced several periods of significant decline after rapid growth, which reflects an extensive semiconductor cycle. This cyclicality has the potential to make short-term investments difficult, but it is also an opportunity for long-term investors who can get through the recession.
Micron's recent financial performance appears cyclical at first glance. Despite excellent returns over the past year, the fall in stock prices from all-time highs suggests that market makers are wary of the next potential recession. However, this decline does not necessarily herald the end of Micron's recent swing back into a high-growth region.
Micron's business cycle
From a historical perspective, Micron's business cycle is rising...

Today's 25th is the Ichimoku Equilibrium Chart.
Since the last bastion of 38900 yen was split all at once, it hasn't stopped falling like an avalanche.
Even in the Ichimoku equilibrium table, it was at the level of 38150-38300 in the morning, and the clouds passed through to the lower limit, the red turning line dead-crossed the green reference line, and the yellow slow line also dead-crossed the candlestick.
With this, it went from a three-role turnaround to a three-role reversal all at once. It is unusual for 3 to reverse at the same time, and the market price is such a sharp turn.
I don't know where it will stop, and the tactic of going long with reversal expectations hasn't changed after confirming that the decline has stopped.

Today's 24th is the new Stochastics.
As expected, the drop was steep, so the new Stochastics broke the bottom of the lower bar.
It's turning red at the bottom line. It's a long sign when it goes back inside the bar and turns orange.
When this happens, it's almost time to sign the bottom.
However, the long IN only became an upward 5MA cross. An upward 5MA cross indicates a state where the yellow 5MA changes upward and is above the 5MA at the closing price.
If there is no sudden rebound as it is, it's likely to be a good rebound point once, but if you divide 39400 of 50MA by the closing price, it's GO to 39000.
I feel like I can just ride a long one with the intention of not hurrying and give me the tail, or just wait for the return sale.

Today's 23rd is a pullback+volume oscillator.
As I mentioned in the video last night, it was currently the only reversal expectation sign (for me), but the position of the volume oscillator is different from when it appeared on 7/19 last week. On 7/19, the volume oscillator was above the white dot zero line, but today it's below.
Originally, I would like to wait for the 5MA cross, but if it is firmly above 39900-40000 until today's closing price, it will be an immediate reversal.
However, the 25MA that was sold back is 40100. If we don't get past this point, we will immediately retreat.

Today's 22nd is 25MA and 50MA.
Although there was a big return from Friday's closing price of 39590 yen, it has moved by dividing 25MA, and it is becoming possible to stand between 25MA for the top and 50MA for the bottom.
And if the 25MA is clearly divided, even if it were to return, this 25MA would become a resistance and fall again... the movement would be as per the textbook.
Whether it can surpass the 25MA, which is at the 40000 yen milestone at an early stage, is becoming important.