$USD/JPY (USDJPY.FX)$
From what I hear at the press conference, it sounds like they are only carrying on with the policies of the Kishida administration on the surface. I think it's just for election strategy.
Well, in this current situation, there seems to be few negative factors until the election.
From what I hear at the press conference, it sounds like they are only carrying on with the policies of the Kishida administration on the surface. I think it's just for election strategy.
Well, in this current situation, there seems to be few negative factors until the election.
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$Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (7011.JP)$
Both Ishiba and Takashi somehow managed to escape with superficial wounds in terms of security...
Both Ishiba and Takashi somehow managed to escape with superficial wounds in terms of security...
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4
The largest decline rate since 1990 on the first day of trading after the LDP presidential election.
$Nikkei 225 (.N225.JP)$
The Ishiba market experienced a challenging start. Looking back at the first day of trading after the LDP presidential election, the 4.24% decline (based on closing price) during Junichiro Koizumi's re-election in 2003 was the largest since 1990. The morning decline rate of 4.6% on the 30th exceeded this.
The Ishiba market experienced a challenging start. Looking back at the first day of trading after the LDP presidential election, the 4.24% decline (based on closing price) during Junichiro Koizumi's re-election in 2003 was the largest since 1990. The morning decline rate of 4.6% on the 30th exceeded this.
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$Nikkei 225 (.N225.JP)$
Announcing the afternoon of October 27th, the voting for the election, according to the congratulatory market, might temporarily return to a weaker yen and higher stocks (since negative remarks are unlikely to be made during the election period (already showing a reluctance towards early interest rate hikes over the weekend)).
Not only banks, but there are also movements accepting Defense and Disaster Prevention related matters and new Prime Minister Ishiba, suggesting a temporary calm.
Announcing the afternoon of October 27th, the voting for the election, according to the congratulatory market, might temporarily return to a weaker yen and higher stocks (since negative remarks are unlikely to be made during the election period (already showing a reluctance towards early interest rate hikes over the weekend)).
Not only banks, but there are also movements accepting Defense and Disaster Prevention related matters and new Prime Minister Ishiba, suggesting a temporary calm.
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$Nikkei 225 (.N225.JP)$
From this level, it seems that the Nikkei average could be seen in the mid-36,000 yen range, but if there is a further decline from tomorrow's futures closing price of 37,440, it will truly become a Ishiba shock, and there will be no elections or anything, so it will probably be necessary to contain the situation.
In that case, if it continues to fall from the opening price tomorrow, there may also be a short-term rebound.
From this level, it seems that the Nikkei average could be seen in the mid-36,000 yen range, but if there is a further decline from tomorrow's futures closing price of 37,440, it will truly become a Ishiba shock, and there will be no elections or anything, so it will probably be necessary to contain the situation.
In that case, if it continues to fall from the opening price tomorrow, there may also be a short-term rebound.
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8
$USD/JPY (USDJPY.FX)$
If there are negative elements, strengthening financial income taxation, putting out the fire of income/corporate tax hikes, and a clear statement of succession to the Kishida line from savings to investment, the first time next week is probably a place to buy, and if not, it's probably a place where it's one step lower. The Kishida route, which includes wage increases → overcoming deflation, and investment promotion through NISA, etc. is highly evaluated by overseas investors. Additionally, if there is communication with the market about suppressing exchange rate volatility = the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike policy, evaluations from overseas will increase further. There seem to be many investors who say that the volatility of yen is too high to invest in Japanese stocks.
Ishiwari's economic/monetary policy expert expects interest rate normalization
(Excerpt below)
Managing Director of US Asset Management Company Advent Capital Management
Kevin Zau
Kevin Zau of Advent Capital Management
I was a little surprised that Mr. Ishiwari would be elected as the new president because according to the Shimouma review of the new president seemed to be the least likely of the three final candidates. The view of the person involved in the financial market is that Japanese stocks are financial reconstruction through corporate tax rate hikes, expansion of capital gains taxation, etc., and normalization of monetary policy...
If there are negative elements, strengthening financial income taxation, putting out the fire of income/corporate tax hikes, and a clear statement of succession to the Kishida line from savings to investment, the first time next week is probably a place to buy, and if not, it's probably a place where it's one step lower. The Kishida route, which includes wage increases → overcoming deflation, and investment promotion through NISA, etc. is highly evaluated by overseas investors. Additionally, if there is communication with the market about suppressing exchange rate volatility = the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike policy, evaluations from overseas will increase further. There seem to be many investors who say that the volatility of yen is too high to invest in Japanese stocks.
Ishiwari's economic/monetary policy expert expects interest rate normalization
(Excerpt below)
Managing Director of US Asset Management Company Advent Capital Management
Kevin Zau
Kevin Zau of Advent Capital Management
I was a little surprised that Mr. Ishiwari would be elected as the new president because according to the Shimouma review of the new president seemed to be the least likely of the three final candidates. The view of the person involved in the financial market is that Japanese stocks are financial reconstruction through corporate tax rate hikes, expansion of capital gains taxation, etc., and normalization of monetary policy...
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$USD/JPY (USDJPY.FX)$
The double punch of the Ishiba shock + concerns over US inflation easing.
Despite the significant drop due to the strengthening of financial income taxation immediately after Prime Minister Kishida took office, it's surprising to see it rekindled without learning a lesson...
If handled well like Prime Minister Kishida, it might be a good buying opportunity, but with no clear understanding of the brain behind it, and too much anxiety if Ishiba becomes the new president on his own.
The double punch of the Ishiba shock + concerns over US inflation easing.
Despite the significant drop due to the strengthening of financial income taxation immediately after Prime Minister Kishida took office, it's surprising to see it rekindled without learning a lesson...
If handled well like Prime Minister Kishida, it might be a good buying opportunity, but with no clear understanding of the brain behind it, and too much anxiety if Ishiba becomes the new president on his own.
Translated
$USD/JPY (USDJPY.FX)$
It depends on who will be appointed as ministers and who will become chief of staff, but the economy looks bad.
Well, if they propose fiscal reconstruction and increased burden on the public, they will definitely turn into a short-term administration. Japanese stocks may not perform well for a while.
It depends on who will be appointed as ministers and who will become chief of staff, but the economy looks bad.
Well, if they propose fiscal reconstruction and increased burden on the public, they will definitely turn into a short-term administration. Japanese stocks may not perform well for a while.
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9
$OSE Nikkei 225 Futures(DEC4) (NK225main.JP)$
I can't believe it has come to this...
I can't believe it has come to this...
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