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1975年以来最佳开局，最坏的时候过去了吗？
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bullrider_21 参与了话题 · 2023/02/20 10:39

Best opening since 1975: Is the worst over?

The Nasdaq had its best January performance since 2001 with a 10.7% gain. That's after plunging 33.1% in 2022. In fact, the Nasdaq was up more than 16% year to date as of Feb. 2, 2023. That's the best start to the year since 1975. So will this year be good for the Nasdaq?
I don't think so. I think the market is too optimistic. This is just a relief rally after tech stocks' rout last year. They have been rallying because the market is pricing in the Fed hiking rates for the last time by 25 basis points, pausing and then cutting rates in the second half of the year.
Recent reports have came in with higher than expected data. The January jobs report showed nonfarm payrolls increased by a surprisingly strong 517,000. The US labour market is not softening and the Fed may have to continue to hike agressively to tame wage inflation. January CPI rose by 6.4% on an annual basis and 0.5% on a monthly basis. January retail sales rose 3%, the largest one-month jump since Mar 2021. US PPI rebounded 0.7% in January, the largest increase since Jun 2022. These stoke worries that robust consumption combined with a higher-than-expected readings on consumer and producer prices may keep the Fed on a hawkish stance for longer.
The reality is that an earnings recession has now begun and that inflation may still pick up later this year. The strong rebound has come despite mixed Q4 earnings and outlooks, in addition to about 100,00 layoffs announced in Jan 2023. Analysts are expecting a recession later this year. But the market has only factored in about a 2% drop in corporate EPS. Corporate EPS drops about 20% in a typical recession. So stocks have room to fall.
China's reopening from its zero-Covid will result in greater demand for commodities and hence higher inflation. But China's increased demand for goods and services from the U.S. and EU may also result in a sllghtly shallower recession in these regions. So the Fed may have to hike rates higher for longer. There may not be any rate cuts this year. The markets may crash this year.
After closing a bad year in 2022, the Nasdaq rallied 10.7% in January. The Nasdaq usually ended the year positive if it rallied in January. Since the Nasdaq's inception in 1971, there have been 33 prior months where it rallied at least 10%. But the number of occurrences drops to just 16 when narrowed to rallies of that magnitude following a 12-month stretch in which the index was down, according to Bespoke Investment Group. In such cases, the Nasdaq's performance then tends to be positive over the next year, except in 2001, when there were 4 different (monthly gains of 10% or more) and the Nasdaq was lower one year later after all 4 of them.
This is shown in the chart below. The Nasdaq jumped 12.2% in January 2001, after plunging 39.3% over the prior 12 months. The index tumbled 30.2% over the next year.
Fig. 1. Nasdaq.
Fig. 1. Nasdaq.
There were multiple 10%-plus monthly gains in 2001 and they were all followed by eventual declines. The rally in January this year and the rout last year draw comparisons to the bursting of the dot-com bubble from 2000 to 2002. It could be 2001 all over again.
AI stocks may lead the rallies to very high valuations and the bubble may burst like the meme and dot-com bubbles. Tech and other stocks may follow them down and crash.
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