April's Must-See Financial Events: Bitcoin Halving, Inflation Rate, and Large Banks to Kick Off Earnings Season
In March, the bullish trend of the US stocks continued and broadened beyond the large-cap tech stocks, with cyclical industries such as industrials, finance, and energy also performing well. This collective strength supported the major US indices to reach new historical highs. Specifically, the $标普500指数 (.SPX.US)$ surged 3.10% during the month and broke through the 5,200 level, marking the first time in a decade that the index has risen for five consecutive months, with a cumulative gain of over 10% in Q1. The $纳斯达克综合指数 (.IXIC.US)$ and the $道琼斯指数 (.DJI.US)$ also rose by 1.79% and 2.08% respectively in March, with the $道琼斯指数 (.DJI.US)$ approaching the milestone of 40,000 points.
According to historical data, April has been one of the best-performing months for the stock market in the past 20 years, both in terms of the frequency of index gains and the average returns. The S&P 500 has an 80% probability of rising in April, with an average return of 2%. However, the market in April faces a series of disruptors, and investors are trying to find more clues for interest rate cuts from upcoming data such as March nonfarm payrolls, CPI, PPI, and PCE, as well as the FOMC Meeting Minutes. In addition, investors are closely watching the earnings of major banks such as JPMorgan, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo, which may set the tone for the new round of earnings season and influence market trends.
Furthermore, global investors are focusing on the Bitcoin halving event that is expected to occur in April. So far, Bitcoin has undergone three halvings in 2012, 2016, and 2020, and historical data shows that the price of Bitcoin has rapidly risen for 6 to 18 months after each halving, reaching new historical highs.
Check out key events in April here:
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