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102567931 保密 ID: 102567931
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    AlanticE downgraded BABA .. I think this Company either have no foresight or his a very very weak hearted old man. Now seriously!! when is already 118. just what is going through in your head. Lol
    这机构在118价位把阿里评价调低。。该公司不是没远见 就是有个蚂蚁大的心呗。AlanticE 啥也不是 tuitui
    $阿里巴巴(BABA.US)$ 
    1
    $AMC院线(AMC.US)$ 是的,到本周末,Amazing Spider-Man 已经计划向国际 B.O. 投入超过5亿美元的资金
    https://deadline.com/tag/spider-man-no-way-home/
    已翻译
    蜘蛛侠已经在关注超过5亿的世界大战了
    $标普500指数(.SPX.US)$  $标普500波动率指数(.VIX.US)$  $SPDR黄金ETF(GLD.US)$  $巴里克黄金(GOLD.US)$ 
    The market has been on a tear ever since its huge 35% correction in March 2020- S&P index drop from 3400 to 2200- due to the Covid 19 pandemic. It has more than doubled from the bottom to its current level at 4650.  
    So what's the outlook ahead?
    Is it on a never-ending trajectory to the moon?
    We will be looking at 6 indicators and the chart of S&P to give us some indication if things are getting way too hot that will lead to the imminent meltdown. 
    The power of the Fed printing machine has worked wonders. But is the market getting too complacent?
    Buffet Indicator
    Source: currentmarketvaluation.com
    The Buffett Indicator is defined as the value of a country's publicly traded stocks divided by its gross national product. The greatest investor of our lifetime, Warren Buffet, have used this indicator to assist him to gauge where the valuation of the market stands at any moment in time. 
    We are now way off the charts and looks excessively overvalued. If the market just reverts to the historical trendline, it could easily be a 50% correction. 
    Berkshire cash holdings of 149 billion are also at their all-time high and constitute around 17% of their total assets of 873 billion dollars.
    Shiller Cape Ratio
    Source: multp.com
    The next indicator we are looking at would be the Shiller Cape Ratio. It is the cyclical adjusted price-earnings ratio. 
    Due to the cyclical nature of the markets, an outlier pe ratio (a recession for the year) could distort the analysis of the market valuation. 
    Thus, Professor Robert Shiller came up with the CAPE ratio to adjust for cyclicality- taking the average of 10 years PE- and hence portray a more accurate picture of the valuation of the market.
    The current Shiller Cape Ratio is only surpassed by the dot com bubble in 2000. We are not in the value zone. 
    Some explanation for the high ratio could be due to the ultra-low interest rate environment that would enhance the valuation of the market- cash flow is discounted at lower rates which leads to a higher valuation. 
    With inflationary effects creeping in, where the US recently have hit an inflation figure of 6%, the days of low-interest rates might not be a certainty in the future.
    VIX- Volatility Index
    Source: Yahoo finance
    VIX is a measure of volatility or fear factor in the market. It is derived from the implied volatility of the S&P 500 options. There is a negative correlation between price moves and the VIX. 
    The VIX tends to increase when the market falls. The VIX has been recently showing some strength and has reached around the 30 levels just this week but it has since retraced back to the low 20s level. 
    A break above the 30 levels could signal the start of a market correction which is possible as the VIX seems to be building up momentum at the moment.
    Fed Balance Sheet
    Source: Tradingeconomics.com
    Looking at the Fed Balance Sheet, we could see the US money printing machine at full throttle. The amount is 8.66 trillion which have more than doubled since 2020. 
    The Fed balance sheet comprises mainly of treasuries that they have purchased through money printing. 
    The huge amount just highlights that things might be out of control and the only way to keep the party going is to print more and deleverage using this approach. Moreover, the government debt is also escalating to new records, it currently stands at 28 trillion dollars.
    The critical question that we have to ask ourselves would be when will the confidence of US dollars be eroded with the insane money printing machine at work?
    Our take is when we see China's treasuries holding fall below the 1 trillion mark- have been holding slightly above 1 trillion through the years- that could be a marker for us to be cautious.
    The Commitment of Traders for S&P 500
    Source: barchart.com
    The commitment of traders indicator is to gauge the positioning of the different players in the futures market. At this juncture, the large speculators which we deem as the smart money is still net long on the S&P 500 futures with an increasing position sizing.
    This could mean the rally might still have legs. 
    AAII Investor Sentiment Survey
    Source: AAII.com
    The last indicator we will be looking at will be the AAII investors survey sentiment. It measures the mood of individual investors. 
    Based on the latest statistics, it is showing the highest neutral sentiment in 2 years. The AAII sentiment is usually used as a contrarian indicator where an ultra bullish sentiment would be taken in negatively and a slant towards a market correction could be round the corner.
    Based on the current reading, it would be inconclusive.
    Chartist Point of View
    Source: Investing.com- S&P 500 chart
    The trend is your friend. The uptrend of the S&P 500 is intact. 
    First hints of weakness would only surface if it breaches below 4500 levels. The critical support would be at 4200-4300 levels which would be the first target if S&P retraces. 
    A deeper correction could be on the cards if the 4200 level does not hold, a medium-term target could see the S&P 500 testing the 3500 level.
    For now, as long as 4200 holds, we are still bullish as the uptrend is still intact.
    Summing Up
    In this write-up, we took a look at 6 indicators to gauge if the S&P 500 is looking peakish. They are namely:
    Buffet Indicator
    Shiller Cape Ratio
    VIX
    Fed Balance Sheet
    Commitment of Traders
    AAII Investor Sentiment Survey
    The first 4 indicators are showing signs of the market reaching peakish levelswith the indicators reaching levels that are way above their mean or even reaching all-time highs.
    However, as John Maynard Keynes famously quoted:
    "Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent."
    As for the Commitment of Traders, the smart money is still net long the S&P 500 while the AAII Investor Sentiment Survey is not showing any conclusive contrarian angle.
    Finally, the charts are still showing the uptrend is intact and we will be on the defensive when S&P 500 breaches the 4200 level.
    A piece of advice would be if the crash comes round, it could be fast and furious. 
    So with the market looking peakish, it is wise to have an allocation to gold as a defence mechanism. Moreover, gold is trading at a reasonable level. With the latest news of Monetary Authority of Singapore increasing their gold pile for the first time in decades, it further lends weight to this thesis.
    6 Indicators to Gauge if the S&P 500 is Peaking
    6 Indicators to Gauge if the S&P 500 is Peaking
    6 Indicators to Gauge if the S&P 500 is Peaking
    +5
    $Vinco Ventures(BBIG.US)$ 收于 3.10 上方,上行趋势大行其道...
    已翻译
    4
    sg's $利安-华侨证券中国龙头企业ETF(S$)(YYY.SG)$??但请注意区别在于他们的支出比率:
    Lion ochbc的yyy为0.62%,而贝莱德对2823hk的收费为0.35%
    $安硕A50(02823.HK)$
    已翻译
    1
    $特斯拉(TSLA.US)$
    煮豆持作羹,
    漉豉以为汁。
    萁在釜下燃,
    豆在釜中泣。
    本是同根生,
    相煎何太急。
    已翻译
    2
    作者:达尼洛
    嘿,mooer们!以下是你在开场钟声之前需要知道的事情:
    -周五早些时候,股票期货几乎没有变化,此前投资者从本周早些时候的市场反弹中撤出,并将注意力转向当天晚些时候公布的通胀数据。
    -截至11月,沃尔顿、马克·扎克伯格和谷歌联合创始人等高层管理人员和公司领导人已售出635亿美元,较2020年增长50%。此次销售是在市场估值飙升以及美国和一些州税法可能发生变化之前进行的。
    市场快照
    周五早些时候,股票期货几乎没有变化,此前投资者从本周早些时候的市场反弹中撤出,将注意力转向了当天晚些时候公布的通胀数据。
    与之挂钩的期货合约 $道琼斯指数(.DJI.US)$ 获得了 52 点积分。 $标普500指数(.SPX.US)$ 期货上涨13点和 $纳斯达克100指数(.NDX.US)$ 期货上涨0.3%。
    市场温度
    阅读更多:市场温度(12/10)
    热门新闻
    在通货膨胀数据公布之前,股票期货小幅上涨
    在新的通胀数据公布之前,美国股票期货和债券收益率上升,这可能会影响美联储减少刺激措施的时间表。
    参议院为提高债务上限扫清了关键障碍
    参议院投票决定清除提高债务上限的最大障碍,核心共和党人与民主党人一起朝着避免政府违约迈出了关键一步。
    美国证券交易委员会的 Gensler 寻求在 SPAC 和传统首次公开募股之间创造公平的竞争环境
    美国证券交易委员会负责人将目标对准了空白支票公司,称它们为普通投资者提供的信息不完整,针对利益冲突和欺诈的保护措施不足。
    申请失业救济人数降至52年来的最低水平
    上周首次申请的失业人数降至18.4万人。由于雇主在紧张的劳动力市场中留住工人,裁员人数仍然很低。
    马斯克和其他内部人士正在以历史水平出售股票
    截至11月,沃尔顿、马克·扎克伯格和谷歌联合创始人等高层管理人员和公司领导人已售出635亿美元,比2020年增长50%。此次销售是在市场估值飙升以及美国和一些州税法可能发生变化之前进行的。 $特斯拉(TSLA.US)$ $Meta Platforms(FB.US)$ $谷歌-A(GOOGL.US)$
    假日季开始时,Costco的销售额有所增长
    仓库零售商 $好市多(COST.US)$ 正在应对成本上涨和运输拥塞,这意味着一些玩具将在圣诞节后到达门店。
    布法罗地区商店的星巴克员工投票赞成组建工会
    咖啡师投票决定在这家咖啡巨头自己的美国咖啡馆成立了50年历史上的第一个工会。 $星巴克(SBUX.US)$
    阅读更多
    首席执行官和内部人士出售了创纪录的690亿美元股票
    凯西·伍德说我们正在进行 “自我反省”
    谷歌:我们不会提高工资以应对通货膨胀
    购买虚拟Gucci包要花多少钱?
    在华尔街上涨之前,有7只被忽视的股票值得购买
    本周重要活动
    资料来源:CNBC、道琼斯通讯社、彭博社
    已翻译
    钟声来临之前 | 马斯克和其他内部人士正在以历史水平出售股票
    钟声来临之前 | 马斯克和其他内部人士正在以历史水平出售股票
    钟声来临之前 | 马斯克和其他内部人士正在以历史水平出售股票
    +1
    3