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102567931 保密 ID: 102567931
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    AlanticE downgraded BABA .. I think this Company either have no foresight or his a very very weak hearted old man. Now seriously!! when is already 118. just what is going through in your head. Lol
    这机构在118价位把阿里评价调低。。该公司不是没远见 就是有个蚂蚁大的心呗。AlanticE 啥也不是 tuitui
    $阿里巴巴 (BABA.US)$ 
    1
    $AMC院线 (AMC.US)$ Yea Amazing Spider-Man already eyeing over half a billion dollars at the international B.O. by this weekend
    https://deadline.com/tag/spider-man-no-way-home/
    Spider-Man already eyeing 500M+ WW
    $标普500指数 (.SPX.US)$  $标普500波动率指数 (.VIX.US)$  $SPDR黄金ETF (GLD.US)$  $巴里克黄金 (GOLD.US)$ 
    The market has been on a tear ever since its huge 35% correction in March 2020- S&P index drop from 3400 to 2200- due to the Covid 19 pandemic. It has more than doubled from the bottom to its current level at 4650.  
    So what's the outlook ahead?
    Is it on a never-ending trajectory to the moon?
    We will be looking at 6 indicators and the chart of S&P to give us some indication if things are getting way too hot that will lead to the imminent meltdown. 
    The power of the Fed printing machine has worked wonders. But is the market getting too complacent?
    Buffet Indicator
    Source: currentmarketvaluation.com
    The Buffett Indicator is defined as the value of a country's publicly traded stocks divided by its gross national product. The greatest investor of our lifetime, Warren Buffet, have used this indicator to assist him to gauge where the valuation of the market stands at any moment in time. 
    We are now way off the charts and looks excessively overvalued. If the market just reverts to the historical trendline, it could easily be a 50% correction. 
    Berkshire cash holdings of 149 billion are also at their all-time high and constitute around 17% of their total assets of 873 billion dollars.
    Shiller Cape Ratio
    Source: multp.com
    The next indicator we are looking at would be the Shiller Cape Ratio. It is the cyclical adjusted price-earnings ratio. 
    Due to the cyclical nature of the markets, an outlier pe ratio (a recession for the year) could distort the analysis of the market valuation. 
    Thus, Professor Robert Shiller came up with the CAPE ratio to adjust for cyclicality- taking the average of 10 years PE- and hence portray a more accurate picture of the valuation of the market.
    The current Shiller Cape Ratio is only surpassed by the dot com bubble in 2000. We are not in the value zone. 
    Some explanation for the high ratio could be due to the ultra-low interest rate environment that would enhance the valuation of the market- cash flow is discounted at lower rates which leads to a higher valuation. 
    With inflationary effects creeping in, where the US recently have hit an inflation figure of 6%, the days of low-interest rates might not be a certainty in the future.
    VIX- Volatility Index
    Source: Yahoo finance
    VIX is a measure of volatility or fear factor in the market. It is derived from the implied volatility of the S&P 500 options. There is a negative correlation between price moves and the VIX. 
    The VIX tends to increase when the market falls. The VIX has been recently showing some strength and has reached around the 30 levels just this week but it has since retraced back to the low 20s level. 
    A break above the 30 levels could signal the start of a market correction which is possible as the VIX seems to be building up momentum at the moment.
    Fed Balance Sheet
    Source: Tradingeconomics.com
    Looking at the Fed Balance Sheet, we could see the US money printing machine at full throttle. The amount is 8.66 trillion which have more than doubled since 2020. 
    The Fed balance sheet comprises mainly of treasuries that they have purchased through money printing. 
    The huge amount just highlights that things might be out of control and the only way to keep the party going is to print more and deleverage using this approach. Moreover, the government debt is also escalating to new records, it currently stands at 28 trillion dollars.
    The critical question that we have to ask ourselves would be when will the confidence of US dollars be eroded with the insane money printing machine at work?
    Our take is when we see China's treasuries holding fall below the 1 trillion mark- have been holding slightly above 1 trillion through the years- that could be a marker for us to be cautious.
    The Commitment of Traders for S&P 500
    Source: barchart.com
    The commitment of traders indicator is to gauge the positioning of the different players in the futures market. At this juncture, the large speculators which we deem as the smart money is still net long on the S&P 500 futures with an increasing position sizing.
    This could mean the rally might still have legs. 
    AAII Investor Sentiment Survey
    Source: AAII.com
    The last indicator we will be looking at will be the AAII investors survey sentiment. It measures the mood of individual investors. 
    Based on the latest statistics, it is showing the highest neutral sentiment in 2 years. The AAII sentiment is usually used as a contrarian indicator where an ultra bullish sentiment would be taken in negatively and a slant towards a market correction could be round the corner.
    Based on the current reading, it would be inconclusive.
    Chartist Point of View
    Source: Investing.com- S&P 500 chart
    The trend is your friend. The uptrend of the S&P 500 is intact. 
    First hints of weakness would only surface if it breaches below 4500 levels. The critical support would be at 4200-4300 levels which would be the first target if S&P retraces. 
    A deeper correction could be on the cards if the 4200 level does not hold, a medium-term target could see the S&P 500 testing the 3500 level.
    For now, as long as 4200 holds, we are still bullish as the uptrend is still intact.
    Summing Up
    In this write-up, we took a look at 6 indicators to gauge if the S&P 500 is looking peakish. They are namely:
    Buffet Indicator
    Shiller Cape Ratio
    VIX
    Fed Balance Sheet
    Commitment of Traders
    AAII Investor Sentiment Survey
    The first 4 indicators are showing signs of the market reaching peakish levelswith the indicators reaching levels that are way above their mean or even reaching all-time highs.
    However, as John Maynard Keynes famously quoted:
    "Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent."
    As for the Commitment of Traders, the smart money is still net long the S&P 500 while the AAII Investor Sentiment Survey is not showing any conclusive contrarian angle.
    Finally, the charts are still showing the uptrend is intact and we will be on the defensive when S&P 500 breaches the 4200 level.
    A piece of advice would be if the crash comes round, it could be fast and furious. 
    So with the market looking peakish, it is wise to have an allocation to gold as a defence mechanism. Moreover, gold is trading at a reasonable level. With the latest news of Monetary Authority of Singapore increasing their gold pile for the first time in decades, it further lends weight to this thesis.
    6 Indicators to Gauge if the S&P 500 is Peaking
    6 Indicators to Gauge if the S&P 500 is Peaking
    6 Indicators to Gauge if the S&P 500 is Peaking
    +5
    $Vinco Ventures (BBIG.US)$ close above 3.10 and uptrend bbig goes.......
    4
    sg's $利安-华侨证券中国龙头企业ETF(S$) (YYY.SG)$??但请注意区别在于他们的支出比率:
    Lion ochbc的yyy为0.62%,而贝莱德对2823hk的收费为0.35%
    $安硕A50 (02823.HK)$
    已翻译
    1
    $特斯拉 (TSLA.US)$
    煮豆持作羹,
    漉豉以為汁。
    萁在釜下燃,
    豆在釜中泣。
    本是同根生,
    相煎何太急。
    2
    By Danilo
    嗨,mooer们!以下是您在开盘前需要知道的事情:
    - 星期五早上,股市期货略有变动,投资者在本周早些时候的市场反弹之后回调,并将注意力转向当天稍后公布的通胀数据。
    - 华尔顿家族、马克·扎克伯格和谷歌的联合创始人等高管和公司领导人在11月份以来卖出635亿美元,比2020年增长了50%。这些销售行为发生在市场估值飙升之际,也在美国和一些州税法可能发生变化之前。
    市场快照
    股票期货周五早些时候基本保持不变,投资者在本周早些时候市场反弹后收敛,将注意力转向当天晚些时候公布的通胀数据。
    与期货合同挂钩的 $道琼斯指数 (.DJI.US)$ $标普500指数 (.SPX.US)$ 期货上涨了13点, $纳斯达克100指数 (.NDX.US)$ 期货增加了0.3%。
    市场温度
    更多阅读: 市场走势 (12/10)
    头条新闻
    股票期货在通胀数据公布前小幅上涨
    美国股票期货和债券收益率在即将公布的新通胀数据前上涨,这可能会影响美联储缩减刺激措施的时间表。
    参议院为提高债务上限迈出重要一步
    参议院投票通过提高债务上限的最大障碍,一些共和党人与民主党人合作,迈出了避免政府违约的重要一步。
    SEC主席致力于平衡SPAC上市公司和传统IPO的竞争环境
    SEC主席批评空白支票公司,表示他们为普通投资者提供的信息不完整,对利益冲突和欺诈行为的保护不足。
    失业申请人数降至52年来最低水平
    上周初请失业人数下降至18.4万。在紧张的劳动力市场上,企业仍然保留了员工,裁员率保持较低水平。
    马斯克和其他内部人士正在以历史性水平出售股票。
    沃尔顿家族、马克·扎克伯格和谷歌的联合创始人等高管和公司领导人,通过11月份卖出了635亿美元,较2020年增长了50%。这些销售发生在市场估值飙升之际,也在美国和一些州税法可能发生变化之前。 $特斯拉 (TSLA.US)$ $Meta Platforms (FB.US)$ $谷歌-A (GOOGL.US)$
    好市多的销售在假期季节开始时上升。
    这家仓储式零售商 $好市多 (COST.US)$ 正面临不断上涨的成本和运输阻塞,这意味着一些玩具将在圣诞节后才能抵达它的店铺。
    水牛地区的星巴克员工投票赞成成立工会。
    咖啡巨头的这家美国咖啡馆的咖啡师们投票组建了第一个工会,这是其50年历史中第一次。 $星巴克 (SBUX.US)$
    阅读更多
    CEO和内部人士卖出创纪录的690亿美元股票
    凯西·伍德表示我们正在经历"寻找灵魂"
    谷歌:我们不会提高工资以匹配通货膨胀
    你愿意为一只虚拟的古琦包支付多少钱?
    在华尔街赶上之前买入的7只被忽视的股票
    本周重要事件
    来源: CNBC, 道琼斯新闻社, 彭博
    已翻译
    开市前|马斯克和其他内幕人士的股票交易创历史新高
    开市前|马斯克和其他内幕人士的股票交易创历史新高
    开市前|马斯克和其他内幕人士的股票交易创历史新高
    +1
    3