失业率上升了0.1个百分点，达到3.9%，略高于预期的3.8%。就业增长为17.5万，低于预期的24万。家庭数据显示，全职就业岗位增加了94.9万，而兼职就业岗位减少了91.4万。工资数据表明，自2021年6月以来，逐年工资增长率首次下降到4%以下，所有私人工资年度增长率为3.9%。
债券收益率的反应是显著下降，收益率"直线下跌"，这可能是由于联邦储备委员会的重点转向就业任务，通胀担忧减轻。股票在市场开盘时飙升。这是一段从鹰派转向鸽派情绪的最大变化。
债券收益率的反应是显著下降，收益率"直线下跌"，这可能是由于联邦储备委员会的重点转向就业任务，通胀担忧减轻。股票在市场开盘时飙升。这是一段从鹰派转向鸽派情绪的最大变化。
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The ADP employment report showed an increase of 192,000 in US employment in April, above the 180,000 expected. The service sector added 145,000 jobs, and the goods sector added 47,000 jobs. The leisure and hospitality sector saw the largest addition, with 56,000 jobs added. The report also showed sticky annual pay growth, particularly for job changers, up 9.3% Yoy which is down from 10.0% YoY in Mar but still up from 7.3% YoY in Feb.
The market is fading the ADP data which showed better-than-exp...
The market is fading the ADP data which showed better-than-exp...
2024年第一季度，ECI季度同比增长1.2%，同比增长4.2%，超出预期，与前一个季度的增长率相匹配。私人工资和薪金环比增长了1.1%，同比增长4.3%，与前一个季度持平。私人工资的增长在各个职业中都比较广泛，销售业经历了显著的环比增长1.9%。值得注意的是，州和地方政府的工资和薪金环比增长了1.4%，同比增长5.0%，得益于医疗服务和公共管理工作。
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Today's European data indicate a continued easing of inflation across European countries.
• Spain's CPI inflation for April presented lower than anticipated figures, with a headline CPI of 3.3% YoY versus an expected 3.3%, and a MoM growth of 0.7%. Core CPI also decreased YoY from 3.3% to 2.9%.
• The German CPI inflation similarly showed subdued results with it being slightly below expectations at 0.5% MoM and 2.2% YoY, with core CPI easing from 3.3% to 3.0% YoY.
• The European Economic Sentimen...
• Spain's CPI inflation for April presented lower than anticipated figures, with a headline CPI of 3.3% YoY versus an expected 3.3%, and a MoM growth of 0.7%. Core CPI also decreased YoY from 3.3% to 2.9%.
• The German CPI inflation similarly showed subdued results with it being slightly below expectations at 0.5% MoM and 2.2% YoY, with core CPI easing from 3.3% to 3.0% YoY.
• The European Economic Sentimen...
消费相当火爆，但收益主要受到能源价格上涨的影响。个人消费者支出（PCE）通胀反映了昨天意想不到的加速。收益率可能会在今天回调，但我不确定我们会看到这种变化变成持续的走势。
今年单利加息1次的定价感觉差不多合适。提醒一下，服务价格仍然固定不变。个人消费者支出（不含能源和住房）服务价格通胀在3月上涨到3.5%同比，而2月是3.4%同比，并且今年一直在加速。
额外的悲观数据：个人消费者支出（不含能源和住房）（...
今年单利加息1次的定价感觉差不多合适。提醒一下，服务价格仍然固定不变。个人消费者支出（不含能源和住房）服务价格通胀在3月上涨到3.5%同比，而2月是3.4%同比，并且今年一直在加速。
额外的悲观数据：个人消费者支出（不含能源和住房）（...
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白银正在测试上个十年8月份所设定的高点。
SLV昨日上涨3.7%，达到2.5年来的高点。TD证券的全球商品策略负责人认为，目前的联储政策对白银等贵金属有利，因为“在通胀目标达成之前，联储会大幅削减利率。”如果联储和其他央行削减经济增长，这可能对白银等贵金属产生积极的冲击。
$白银ETF-iShares (SLV.US)$
SLV昨日上涨3.7%，达到2.5年来的高点。TD证券的全球商品策略负责人认为，目前的联储政策对白银等贵金属有利，因为“在通胀目标达成之前，联储会大幅削减利率。”如果联储和其他央行削减经济增长，这可能对白银等贵金属产生积极的冲击。
$白银ETF-iShares (SLV.US)$
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巴尔的摩桥梁坍塌后，今天早上船舶行业受到了另一次打击。马士基（撞击桥梁的船舶的租船公司）和整个船舶行业很可能会面临下跌。
$Breakwave干散货航运ETF (BDRY.US)$ $A.P.莫勒 - 马士基 (AMKBY.US)$
$Breakwave干散货航运ETF (BDRY.US)$ $A.P.莫勒 - 马士基 (AMKBY.US)$
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Fed speakers this morning walking the hawkish tightrope:
• Downplaying CRE risks
• Magnifying risks of cutting rates too soon
• Wanting to see more progress on inflation
• Bostic sees 1 cut in 2024
• Goolsbee still seeing 3 cuts in 2024
Fed's Bostic:
• I want to avoid volatility from the balance-sheet runoff.
• The Fed is aware of CRE risks but doesn't see them as broad-based.
• Cutting rates too soon could be more disruptive.
Fed's Goolsbee:
• We're in a bit of a murky period with inflation.
• ...
• Downplaying CRE risks
• Magnifying risks of cutting rates too soon
• Wanting to see more progress on inflation
• Bostic sees 1 cut in 2024
• Goolsbee still seeing 3 cuts in 2024
Fed's Bostic:
• I want to avoid volatility from the balance-sheet runoff.
• The Fed is aware of CRE risks but doesn't see them as broad-based.
• Cutting rates too soon could be more disruptive.
Fed's Goolsbee:
• We're in a bit of a murky period with inflation.
• ...
日本央行自2007年以来首次加息约8小时后，JGb收益率普遍下降。投资者并不相信政策转变会进一步正常化。的确，日本央行给自己留下了足够的空间保持鸽派。
$日本10年期国债收益率 (JP10Y.BD)$ $日本5年期国债收益率 (JP5Y.BD)$ $日本3年期国债收益率 (JP3Y.BD)$
$日本10年期国债收益率 (JP10Y.BD)$ $日本5年期国债收益率 (JP5Y.BD)$ $日本3年期国债收益率 (JP3Y.BD)$
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PPI was hot and confirmed that inflationary pressures behind hot CPI are no joke. Yields jump, stocks dump. I think we're in for a little pain in March and maybe April too.
$SPDR 标普500指数ETF (SPY.US)$ $美国2年期国债收益率 (US2Y.BD)$
$SPDR 标普500指数ETF (SPY.US)$ $美国2年期国债收益率 (US2Y.BD)$
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