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Central China Securities: Focus on the improvement of the fundamentals of meat products brought about by the rebound in pork prices.
Central China Securities released research reports stating that in 2024, based on the market innovation vitality of emerging categories, Central China Securities recommends focusing on sectors: health products, soft drinks, baking, snacks, and other alcoholic beverages.
Donghai Securities: It is expected that hog prices will remain prosperous in the fourth quarter, and the performance of hog enterprises will improve quarter by quarter. The industry is entering a phase of profit realization.
Sow inventory began to decline from January 2023, leading to a gradual reduction in current supply pressure. With limited short-term supply increase and seasonal improvement in consumer demand, it is expected that pork prices will remain prosperous in the fourth quarter, with pig performance improving seasonally, and the industry entering a phase of profit realization.
In the fourth quarter, the pig prices staged a "ultimate showdown" between bulls and bears, determining whether the pork industry will be "fat or lean" next year. | Industry Observations
1. The price of pork has been continuously falling for two months during the traditional strong period, with a decline of more than 20%; 2. Behind the decline is the increase in slaughter caused by the expansion of piglets and the concentrated slaughter in the second fattening, forming a downward momentum together; 3. If the pork price in the fourth quarter is not good during the peak season, the pig cycle may either rise directly or come to an end. If the pork price realizes an upward pig cycle, pig enterprises and the breeding industry are still expected to have a prosperous year in 2025.
Huafu Securities: Pig prices are adjusting in a volatile manner, and the price difference between lean and fat continues to widen.
Looking ahead, with the decrease in national temperature, pork demand will gradually improve. Against the backdrop of limited supply growth and cautious breeding operations, pig prices are expected to rebound during the peak season at the end of the year, and pig farming profitability is expected to continue to increase.
In September, the group's pig farming enterprises actively slaughtered, and the profitability of Q4 breeding may continue | Industry Trends
1. The pig price continues to rebound, combined with the continued decline in costs, resulting in simultaneous increase in quantity and price of pig enterprises in the third quarter; 2. The average selling price of the group's pig enterprises in September is between 18.6 yuan/kg and 19 yuan/kg, with most pig farms' breeding costs around 14 yuan/kg, demonstrating considerable profitability for breeding enterprises; 3. It is widely believed within the industry that there is still profit potential for pig enterprises in the fourth quarter.
haitong sec: Holiday pig prices first suppressed and then rose, and the significant widening of the difference in fat price.
The benchmark supply of live pigs depends on the breeding sows and production efficiency, and November and December of 2023 and January of 2024 are the stages with the fastest capacity digestion. The breeding sows also decrease to a relatively low level, while it is also the most severe phase of winter diseases, corresponding to the insufficient benchmark supply in October.
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