DRAM Q3 growth exceeded expectations! Storage manufacturers' performance strongly rebounds. Will module factories benefit from stocking up?
Due to multiple factors such as active stockpiling by cloud vendors and original factory capacity planning, Q3 DRAM contract prices will be 5 percentage points higher than previously expected. This recovery is driven by structural factors, as the prices of consumer memory have been falling since May. Some module manufacturers are facing pressure from upstream and downstream businesses, but those who have sufficient inventory are under less pressure.
The battery inventory is a tale of two extremes under high pressure, with a stable leading position and shuffling at the tail end. | Jianzhi Research
Battery inventory reaches a new high for the year.
China EV Battery Installations in Jul: CATL's Share 47.3%, BYD 22.83%
Global EV Battery Market Share in H1 2024: CATL 37.8%, BYD 15.8%
Electrification In The Maritime Industry, Challenges And Prospects
When will the lithium salt industry be cleared out as prices drop below 8? | Jianzhi Research
The spot and futures prices of lithium carbonate hit a new low for the year, posing a challenge for lithium salt manufacturers to survive.
EVTank: In the first half of the year, the penetration rate of electric heavy trucks in China has greatly increased to 5.6%, driving the installed capacity of lithium batteries for heavy trucks to reach 11.4 GWh.
In the first half of 2024, the sales volume of electric heavy trucks in China was 0.028 million, a year-on-year increase of 141.8%, and the electrification of the entire heavy truck industry increased significantly to 5.6%. In January-June 2024, the installed capacity of lithium-ion batteries for China's electric heavy trucks was 11.4 GWh.
Founder Securities: Prices of non-ferrous industry and industrial metals are weakening, and gold prices are reaching new highs.
Domestic demand for industrial metals has entered the off-season, coupled with increasing expectations of a U.S. economic downturn. Industrial metal prices may remain weak, and attention can be paid to downstream demand changes in the off-season. In addition, the expectation of interest rate cuts is gradually fermenting, coupled with the weakening of the U.S. credit system, and the short-term gold price may maintain a high-level shock trend.
CITIC Securities: Domestic and foreign large storage demand continues to improve, pay attention to manufacturers with high proportion of overseas shipments.
The sustained increase in domestic and international energy storage demand is mainly due to factors such as policy support, cost reduction, new energy regulation demand, and electricity grid construction demand.
Cui Dongshu: In June, 43 GWh of lithium batteries were installed, with phosphate iron lithium batteries accounting for 74%, and the growth of ternary batteries slowing down.
In June, the shipment volume of lithium batteries was 43 GWh, a 30% YoY increase; the shipment volume of lithium iron phosphate batteries was 32 GWh, accounting for 74%, and the growth of ternary batteries slowed down. From January to June, the shipment volume of lithium batteries was 203 G, with a YoY increase of 34%.
The surplus situation is difficult to change, and the price of lithium carbonate continues to decline! How long can the cost line of 0.08 million yuan/ton last?
Approaching the cost line
Soochow Securities: domestic forklift lithium battery short delivery advantage can be sustained, bullish on increasing market share and structural optimization for going abroad.
In 2024, under the trend of tightening eco-friendly policies, the stock of National IV diesel vehicles will replace National II and below diesel vehicles, and the penetration rate of high-value lithium electric forklifts will increase. Domestic sales are expected to continue to grow, optimizing the structure.
The contradiction between supply and demand is prominent! The price of lithium carbonate continues to fall, and the cost line of 80,000 yuan/ton is in danger.
Due to oversupply and continuous insufficient demand, the price of lithium carbonate has been falling steadily in the recent period.
GGII: China's energy storage PCS shipment volume in the first half of the year was 24 GW, and it is expected to reach 52 GW for the whole year.
According to research statistics from the GGII Institute of High-Tech Industrialization, the PCS shipment of China's energy storage is expected to reach 24GW in the first half of 2024, with an estimated full-year shipment of 52GW.
Guotou Securities: production and sales volume increased year-on-year, lithium concentrate prices under pressure.
As global lithium mining exploration and production projects are gradually completed and put into operation, the continuous increase in resources has led to stable growth in production and sales of mining companies. However, the continuous decline in sales prices has further boosted sales while dragging down the company's performance.
Sodium-electric and semi-solid, half flame and half seawater | Jianzhi Research
Thanks to the new energy autos achieving a record high in delivery, the production, sales and installation volume of power batteries also hit a new high in June this year in all dimensions.
Revolutionary changes in lithium mining? IBAT has achieved commercialization of new lithium extraction technology for the first time.
The metal that is crucial for energy transition—lithium, has had a major breakthrough in mining technology. With the direct lithium extraction (DLE) technique, lithium production capacity is expected to double compared to current levels.
90,000, the last defense line of lithium prices? | Jianzhi Research
Has this round of liquidation just begun?
The lithium battery sector generally rose, with Ganfeng Lithium's (01772) up by 7.18%. Soochow Securities predicts that the demand for dynamic and storage batteries will increase by 31% and 23%, respectively, in 2024-2025.
Jingwu Finance | The lithium battery sector generally rose. As of the time of publication, Honbridge (08137) rose 7.88%, Ganfeng Lithium (01772) rose 7.18%, Tianqi Lithium Corporation (09696) rose 2.76%, and Chaowei Power (00951) and Leoch Int'l (00842) followed the trend. On the news front, Soochow Securities released research reports indicating that domestic demand is strong and China is still the most certain market for electric vehicles, with overseas demand expected to accelerate by 2025. Capital expenditures in the main industry chain have begun to decline, and from the second half of 2024, the stronger ones will continue to strengthen, with smaller factories gradually exiting, improving the supply-demand pattern, and the bottom of the industry's big cycle becoming clear.
China International Capital Corporation: Multi-dimensional marginal improvement drives energy storage capacity increase, and global energy storage demand is expected to maintain high growth.
From a short-term perspective, the improvement of the US economy promotes the marginal improvement of the large storage market, and tariff policies may bring a rush of orders. From a medium-term perspective, developments such as the US market's energy transformation, extreme weather, and AI will drive the upward demand for energy storage, and the safety of storage batteries will also receive more attention. Although Chinese enterprises face challenges, there are still good development opportunities.
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