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Dairy stocks collectively rebound, CHINA FEIHE (06186) rises by 3.11%. Goldman Sachs predicts a strong increase in the number of newborns in China in 2024.
Jinwu Financial News | Dairy stocks are collectively rebounding. As of the time of publication, AUSTASIA GROUP (02425) is up 7.37%, Youran Dairy (09858) is up 6.49%, CH MODERN D (01117) is up 3.61%, CHINA FEIHE (06186) is up 3.11%, and MENGNIU DAIRY (02319) is also increasing. On the news front, Goldman Sachs stated that in 2024, the number of newborns in China will reach 9.54 million, a year-on-year increase of 6%, higher than Goldman Sachs' expectations and the UN forecast, returning to the 2022 level and reversing the continuous decline trend since 2017, mainly due to the unexpected economic recovery after the pandemic and the Year of the Dragon.
Hong Kong stocks fluctuate | Dairy industry stocks warm up today as Goldman Sachs states that the number of newborns in 2024 exceeds expectations, which may ease pressures in the infant formula industry.
The dairy stocks have rebounded today. As of the time of this report, YouRan Dairy (09858) increased by 5.84%, reported at 1.63 HKD; CH MODERN D (01117) increased by 3.61%, reported at 0.86 HKD; CHINA FEIHE (06186) increased by 3.3%, reported at 5.32 HKD; MENGNIU DAIRY (02319) increased by 1.05%, reported at 15.4 HKD.
[Brokerage Focus] CITIC SEC indicates that the livestock Operation continues to face pressure and may welcome a new round of clearing after the holiday.
Kingwo Finance News | CITIC SEC stated that the elimination and clearance in the livestock Industry will continue to advance in 2024, with a 6.7% decrease in stock in major production areas from Q1 to Q3, and an overall raw milk production decline of 2.8% year-on-year. Due to the impact of inventory clearance in the channels after the 2024 Spring Festival, dairy companies are cautiously stocking up for the Spring Festival 2025, compounded by a weak recovery in terminal demand, with limited short-term rebound in raw milk demand. By mid-December 2024, the price of bulk milk in major production areas briefly reached a peak of 3 yuan/kg, but then quickly fell back, dropping to 2.3 yuan/kg in the first week of 2025, continuing pressure on livestock enterprises, and under the backdrop of declining milk prices, social pastures are clearly under pressure. Additionally, some
Hong Kong stocks are trending differently | Dairy industry stocks are among the top gainers as dairy companies actively prepare for the Spring Festival inventory. The supply and demand structure is expected to improve next year.
The dairy stocks are among the leading gainers. As of the time of reporting, MENGNIU DAIRY (02319) rose by 4.58%, priced at 17.8 HKD; Yoran Dairy (09858) increased by 3.11%, priced at 1.66 HKD; CH MODERN D (01117) grew by 2.22%, priced at 0.92 HKD.
Hong Kong stocks movement | Youran Dairy (09858) rose over 5% during the trading session. Industry volume and price still have room for growth, and the company's cost management has been remarkably effective.
Youran Agriculture (09858) rose over 5% during the trading session. As of publication, it has increased by 5.26%, priced at 1.6 Hong Kong dollars, with a trading volume of 11.8376 million Hong Kong dollars.
Huachuang Securities: The logic of improvement gradually unfolds, maintaining a neutral outlook on the possibility of a reversal in milk prices in Q3 2025.
First, after the Spring Festival, the destocking during the off-season is expected to accelerate, and then the raw milk cycle is expected to reverse in Q3 of 2025.
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