gtja: Bullish on the continuing cyclicality with high pork prices and slow production growth.
gtja released a research report stating that the current hog prices are high and the breeding profits have significantly improved compared to the same period last year. In the second quarter, breeding profits turned from a loss to a profit, and it is expected that breeding profits will continue to grow quarter on quarter in the third quarter.
Wen\'s Shares: 2024 Semi-Annual Report
Wen\'s Shares: 2024 Semi-Annual Report Summary
Express News | Wens Foodstuff Says It Returns to Net Profit of 1.3 Bln Yuan in H1
Minsheng Securities: Pig prices continue to fluctuate in the high prosperity range, waiting for positive transmission in the post-cycle.
The number of newborn piglets has a turning point since October 2023. Pushing back six months means that April 2024 will mark the turning point for the number of pigs slaughtered, with later pig supply pressures easing month by month.
How to deal with the strong reality and weak expectations of pork prices according to Changjiang Securities?
Pork prices are showing strong present reality and weak expectations. A comprehensive analysis of capacity digestion, second-child policy, and pressure from raising pigs, this round of price increase is mainly driven by supply and demand relationship.
Swhy Research: Pig prices hit new highs, grasp the profits of livestock and poultry breeding, pay attention to the bottom of the industry and the transformation of seed industry.
Under weak demand and expectations, Swhy research believes that the supply side has a "expectation gap" which is the core reason for the strong performance of pig prices in this round, exceeding the main expectations of the industry and the market.
Wens Foodstuff Group (300498.SZ): The completed pig farm has a production capacity of about 46 million heads.
Wens Foodstuff Group (300498.SZ) stated on the investor interaction platform on August 13 that the company's existing sow farms have a completed capacity of approximately 46 million heads (that is, when the company's sow farms are fully loaded, the expected output of commodity piglets according to normal production performance is about 46 million heads). The company's sales target for pork (including hogs and fresh meat) in 2024 is 30-33 million heads.
Open Source Securities: Pig prices start to rise rapidly, and the supply of live pigs is expected to continue to be tight in the fourth quarter.
During the hot season from July to August, the consumption of fat pigs is low, but there is still a high premium for fat pigs reflecting the tight supply of market hogs. It is expected that in the future market, as the temperature gradually decreases and the premium for fat pigs drives up, the average weight of market hogs may gradually increase.
Higher Pork Prices Drive Stronger-than-Expected Rise in China's July Consumer Prices
Wens Foodstuff Group Posts Higher Chicken, Pig Sales Revenue in July
Express News | Wens Foodstuff Says July Hog Sales up 51.2% Y/Y at 5.3 Bln Yuan
Wens Foodstuff Group (300498.SZ): In July, the sales revenue of broiler chickens was 2.627 billion yuan.
On August 6th, Gelonhui reported that Wens Foodstuff Group (300498.SZ) sold 97.3023 million broilers (including live chickens, fresh products, and cooked products) in July 2024, with a revenue of 2.627 billion yuan. The average selling price of live chickens was 13.20 yuan per kilogram, with monthly changes of 5.20%, 0.08%, and -3.51% respectively, and year-on-year changes of 2.77%, 0.42%, and -1.86% respectively.
Tianfeng Securities: The valuation is currently at a relatively low position, highlighting the value of the pig breeding sector.
In the situation where the previous production capacity has been fully utilized to drive the reversal of pig prices and the progress of supplementing the herd is limited, the industry has considerable profit space. Enterprises with strong cost control ability and high growth elasticity will obviously emerge as the bearish market leader with extended industry cycle length.
gtja Securities: strong reality, weak expectations, misalignment of pig cycle position and valuation level.
Under weak expectations but strong reality, the current spot price has already led the rise and exceeded expectations. Even if following the spot price, related companies still have room for valuation repair.
GTJA: The position of the pig cycle and the valuation level are mismatched, and the sector has room for valuation repair.
At this stage, the breeding sector is recommended based on the β angle, and the recommended symbols are Muyuan Foods (002714.SZ) and Wens Foodstuff Group (300498.SZ).
Wens Foodstuff Group (300498.SZ): In the first half of 2024, the company's average selling price of hogs increased by 5.09% year-on-year.
Wens Foodstuff Group (300498.SZ) stated on the investor platform that the company's main business is the breeding and sales of hogs and chickens. In the first half of 2024, the average selling price of the company's hogs rose by 5.09% year-on-year. Coupled with stable production, continuous improvement in production performance, and a decrease in the price of feed raw materials, the company's breeding costs decreased year-on-year. The profit of the company's hog farming business increased significantly year-on-year, reversing losses to profits. In the first half of 2024, the average selling price of the company's chickens rose by 1.51% year-on-year. In addition, the company's chicken raising business remained stable and core production performance indicators remained high.
Research Reports from Guosen Securities: Wens Foodstuff Group's performance is excellent, maintaining a rating of "outperform" compared to the market.
Guosen's research report pointed out that Wens Foodstuff Group (300498.SZ) is expected to have a net profit of 1.25-1.5 billion yuan attributable to shareholders in H1 2024, turning losses into profits YoY. The company's performance is believed to be outstanding. Based on calculations, it is expected that the average profit of hog farming per capita in Q2 2024 will be close to 220-240 yuan, corresponding to the complete cost of hog farming close to 14.5 yuan/kg and the cost will steadily decrease. The company has sufficient reserve capacity for hog production, and the completed capacity of existing boar farms is about 46 million heads, with an effective feeding capacity of about 35 million heads in the fattening stage. It is expected that future sales will maintain a steady growth and will benefit from the rebound in the hog price market.
China Post Securities: it is expected that the pig price will be more likely to rise than fall in the second half of the year, and the profitability of the industry may exceed the market expectations.
Although the current weak demand limits the rise of pork prices, the reduced supply will support the prices, and the relatively tight supply pattern may last for a long time. If demand improves slightly in the second half of the year, the stimulating effect on prices will be greater than before.
Hong Kong Stock Concept Tracking | Pig prices rise and costs decrease, the "scissors difference" expands, and many pig companies' profitability recovers. Is the turning point of the cycle here? (Attached Concept Stocks)
According to the sales report released by the pig industry, the recovery of pork prices has brought sustained repair of corporate profitability.
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