The trend of steel companies becoming more "outward" is significant, with steel exports exceeding 100 million tons, setting an eight-year record high.
① Due to the continuous decline in domestic Steel consumption, companies in the Steel Industry Chain are focusing on overseas markets as a key area for development. This year, steel exports exceeded 100 million tons, reaching a new high in eight years. ② Under policy guidance, the proportion of exports of medium to high value-added products has increased, showing a trend of change in the overall structure of domestic Steel exports from long products to flat products.
The steel industry has faced downward pressure for three years; under the new cycle, calls for "production cuts" are increasing, and there is a need for "synchronous resonance" to respond to challenges and opportunities.
① The steel industry has been declining for three consecutive years, with the market experiencing a negative feedback cycle. It is expected that the apparent consumption of crude steel will be about 0.9 billion tons in 2024, and demand may continue to decline in 2025. The industry is facing various challenges and continues to move forward under pressure while actively seeking new development opportunities; ② "My Steel" predicts a 3% increase in steel for machinery in 2025, a 1.5% increase for autos, a 6.4% increase for shipbuilding, a 2.8% increase for home appliances, and a 5.5% increase for energy.
Bank of America's outlook for the bulk market in 2025: Tariffs cast a shadow over the global market, crude oil enters an oversupply cycle, with gold shining alone, soaring straight to $3,000.
Bank of America Merrill Lynch expects that due to a significant increase in production from non-OPEC countries, coupled with the possibility of OPEC+ releasing more supply, the crude oil market may enter a surplus cycle, with the average annual price of Brent crude oil expected to be $65 per barrel. Basic metals are experiencing price fluctuations amid differentiated supply and demand. Driven by macroeconomic uncertainty and risk aversion sentiment, gold remains one of the most attractive precious metals in 2025.
French miners lament that the profitability of nickel mining business cannot be achieved without china technology and equipment.
① The multinational mining giant Ehmann stated that western companies cannot make a profit in the nickel mining business in Indonesia without relying on china's technology, equipment, and management experience; ② Ehmann and BASF have canceled the 2.6 billion dollar nickel-cobalt refining plant project in Indonesia due to it being 'economically unfeasible'; ③ Ehmann is collaborating with China’s Qingshan Holding to operate the nickel mine in Weda Bay, with the CEO stating that china's technology, expertise, and equipment are key to competitiveness.
Brokerage Morning Meeting Highlights: The historical bottom of real estate stock valuation may have been established.
At today's brokerage morning meeting, China Securities Co.,Ltd. proposed supply-side optimization, suggesting to focus on industries such as steel, photovoltaic, cement, coal, and rare earths; htsc stated that domestic sales of household appliances are improving with stable exports, focusing on two major themes for the year 2025; China International Capital Corporation believes that the historical bottom of real estate stock valuation may have been established.
Cancellation of aluminum and copper material export tax rebates; domestic and international prices show differentiation; leading enterprises accelerate overseas layout.
① Following the announcement of the cancellation of export tax rebates for aluminum and copper materials, aluminum prices showed a trend of "strong externally, weak internally"; ② In the long term, this will drive the industry to focus on high value-added product areas and the overseas expansion of enterprises.
102329055 : Do people still care what's going to be announce this Saturday?
Thelord 102329055 : Sure announce useless things and Monday gonna dump very hard again
102329055 Thelord : Can they afford to say useless stuff?
10baggerbamm 102329055 : are you kidding me I got news for you if China does not stimulate again the economy in a very big way Monday you're going to lose BIG%, it's going to be a gap down before you can even get out. if they do this monster gargantuan stimulus that's was supposedly going to happen on Monday if they do that on Saturday then it's an enormous Gap up on Monday morning it won't be as high as the last leg up the first time and that's because the first time you had huge shorts in the marketplace but you will see about a 50% retracement of what the former high was to the recent sell off the lows this week
Thelord 102329055 : They never fail to shoot at their own feet
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