Concerns about demand have become the main market tone. Brent crude oil fell to a six-month low at one point, while US oil fell more than 4% during trading hours.
Despite the significant escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East this week, which once briefly pushed up crude oil prices, the concern about economic recession has become the main market sentiment, and investors are worried about the demand for crude oil. Oil prices fell sharply on Friday, falling for four consecutive weeks, marking the longest decline since December last year.
Wall Street determines: Trump's bearish on oil prices.
Goldman Sachs and Citigroup both believe that Trump's tariff policy may bearish for oil prices. Goldman Sachs said that if tariffs severely affect the global economy, oil prices may fall by $11 to $19 per barrel next year.
OPEC Monthly Report: Oil supply shortages may occur in the coming months as countries such as Russia have not yet fulfilled their production cuts.
On Wednesday, according to the latest monthly report from OPEC, although Russia significantly reduced its crude oil production in June, the three main OPEC+ members, Russia, Iraq, and Kazakhstan, still supply tens of thousands of barrels per day more than their quotas set earlier this year.
Global commodity inventory is in a state of emergency: inventory days of available commodities outside of China experienced the largest month-on-month decline in 31 months.
JPMorgan said that the main reason for this decline was due to the decrease in crude oil and refined product inventories. The global available days of oil and refined products in June decreased sharply by 2.5 days, the largest monthly decline in four years.
Optimistic prospects for interest rate cuts have led to a general increase in major overseas asset classes such as US stocks, gold, silver, and crude oil. Weekly report on major overseas assets.
After the release of non-farm data for the week of July 1-5, the US stock and bond markets rose and the US dollar came under pressure. Upon realizing the 'data detail' that the data in the first two months before non-farm was cut by 0.11 million, US bonds sharply rebounded and the yield curve became steeper.
Is the oil price driver here? Category 4 Hurricane Belial is advancing into Texas, threatening major US refineries.
The hurricane season in the Caribbean Sea is threatening the operation of major oil refineries in Texas, the largest oil-producing state in the United States.
It's been a fierce summer, will oil prices rise? (Note: 看涨 translated as 'rise')
The American Automobile Association predicts that a record-breaking 71 million Americans will travel during the Independence Day holiday in early July by driving or flying. Will this wave of travel cause prices of rbob gasoline, which has been weak for a long time, to rise in the United States?
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The electric energy hidden underground is becoming a clean resource mine in the eyes of technology giants and conglomerates.
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The commodity boom came to an abrupt end! Basic metals fell across the board, copper and nickel fell sharply, and crude oil fell three times in a row
The minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting show that the Federal Reserve may postpone interest rate cuts due to continued inflation, thus suppressing market expectations of interest rate cuts, and crude oil prices fell in response. Lun Copper closed down 4.05%, while Lunn Nickel fell 4.4%. Some analysts pointed out that the main reason for the decline in copper prices may be related to investors starting to make a profit settlement after copper prices hit a record high, recent weakness in copper demand, and a possible increase in copper production in Peru in 2024.
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Russell Hardy, CEO of Vitol, said that trading companies mainly use AI in two ways: one is to improve business efficiency, and the other is to gain trading advantages through stronger analytical capabilities.
After keeping an eye on the Middle East for a week, oil prices finally “fluctuated” and returned to a “waiting mode”
Although oil prices have never surpassed the high before Iran attacked Israel last weekend, the volume of bullish Brent crude oil options soared to a record high. Brent crude oil futures fluctuated the most in a few months, leaving traders in almost the same situation as a week ago during the weekend, waiting for the next steps of Israel and Iran.
Oil Markets React to Reports of Israeli Attack on Iran
Goldman Sachs: $90 a Barrel Likely Ceiling for Brent Crude
Oil price crossroads! Goldman Sachs: How Israel responds will determine the direction of the market
Goldman Sachs believes that the market's outlook for crude oil depends on Israel's next move, which will determine the prospects for oil supply in the Middle East region. Preliminary calculations include a geopolitical risk premium of 5-10 US dollars/barrel.
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Oil prices have risen four times in a row, reaching 80 US dollars. Investment banks warn that “the market is more tight than current prices”
J.P. Morgan Chase and Standard Chartered Bank predict that global oil inventories will drop 1.6 million barrels per day this month, and oil prices will rise by $10 by May.
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What happened to the sudden surge in oil prices?
Yemen's Houthi armed groups say they attacked an American freighter, Ukrainian drones attacked Russian gas giants, and the combination of extremely short cold weather continues to hinder US crude oil production. “The market is finally beginning to worry about real supply disruptions.”