On the eve of the September interest rate meeting, a report ignited expectations of a 50 basis point interest rate cut, causing stocks, gold, and bitcoin to all rise.
"New Federal Reserve Communications Agency" article stated that Federal Reserve officials are considering whether to cut 25 or 50 basis points. Futures linked to the Federal Reserve's policy rate indicate that traders on Friday expect the probability of a 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve to rise to 47%, with a close to 50/50 chance, while the probability estimated on Thursday was only 28%.
Gold hits a new high, is it trading on the US election cycle? CitiBank: Expected to reach $3000 next year!
The spot gold price has reached new highs in recent days, with prices breaking through $2,580 per ounce in early trading on Friday, and New York gold futures surpassing $2,600 per ounce, both reaching historical highs. Spot gold is expected to have its best performance since 2020, with a year-to-date increase of over 24%. Citibank analysts say that due to the loose monetary policies of major central banks and the tense situation of the US presidential election, the price of gold is expected to reach $3,000 next year. Data shows that gold prices have soared during the terms of the recent several US presidents, starting from the time the new president takes office.
Breaking through 2580! The market is experiencing a "golden tsunami", and the expectation of interest rate cuts is the strongest driving force.
①Spot gold prices strengthened by more than $20 in the short term, hitting a high of $2583.36 per ounce, setting a new historical high; ②Traders have raised the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 50 basis points next week from 14% yesterday to 41%. Former New York Fed President Dudley said during the day, "The reasons for cutting 50 basis points are very sufficient."
Macquarie: The global oil market is expected to face "severe oversupply" by 2025.
According to the McKinsey supply and demand equilibrium forecast, the oil market will face a serious supply surplus in the next five quarters, triggering a situation similar to a 'price war', and oil prices may fall to around $50 per barrel.
Gold Sets A New Record As Prices Rise Higher
"Buy more as it falls!" Traders take advantage of the price drop to stock up, and the nickel industry may enter a phase of bottoming out | New cycle of csi commodity equity index
1. Some traders have indicated that the nickel price has already dropped to the psychological bottom range, and they are beginning to stock up on low stock price; 2. Currently, high-cost nickel production capacity is gradually being cleared out globally; 3. The future nickel price has limited downside potential, and may experience a phase of bottoming out.
Oil Price to Average $60 in 2025, Citigroup Says
Worse than the financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic! Illustration: To what extent has the oil market collapsed?
① As global benchmark Brent crude oil fell below $70, oil prices have reached their lowest level since December 2021; ② In fact, what is even more alarming to market participants than the sharp decline in prices may be the popularity of the crude oil market.
Did oil prices plunge due to oversupply? Senior commodity analyst: The market is "scared".
①Currie said at the annual Asia-Pacific Petroleum Conference in Singapore that the market's concerns about oversupply were "completely exaggerated," and "in terms of oil, this year's production in the USA remained stable"; ②"The key issue is that the market has seriously overestimated the extent of oil supply glut, and the record short positions reflect this... I have never seen this situation before."
Kunlun Energy Company Limited Goes Ex Dividend Tomorrow
It is reported that OPEC+ has agreed to suspend production increases, and US crude oil inventories have dropped to a low point in January, causing oil prices to rise and then fall back.
The analysis points out that although the crude oil inventory in the USA has plummeted, there is a risk of the Cushing inventory bottoming out, and OPEC+ has decided to postpone the production increase by two months, but the oil price rebound is weak because the bears are currently dominant.
Jeff Currie, a veteran of the commodity for 30 years, believes that the current copper price has a range of 8500 at the bottom and 9500 at the top. Whether it can break through this range depends crucially on china.
Currie said in mid-May that copper was the most attractive trade he had seen in his 30-year career, but three and a half months later, the copper price on the London Metal Exchange fell below $9,000 per ton. Currie believes that the current decline in copper prices is mainly due to the simultaneous increase in copper inventories in Asia and copper exports from China.
Stock markets are falling, but will gold rise? International gold price at $2500, with the expectation of Fed rate cuts, the logic of digging "gold" in September may still continue.
Although the rumor that "the stock market is falling and gold is still rising" can be seen as a joke, there are still relatively certain investment opportunities in gold ETFs, but we still need to be cautious of short-term fluctuations, especially when the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates for the first time. In the long term, with global central banks expected to cut interest rates, the expansion of balance sheets is likely to strengthen the monetary attributes of precious metals.
Gold will continue to shine! Goldman Sachs predicts that it will touch $2700 in early next year, based on three major reasons.
Goldman Sachs predicts that by early 2025, the price of gold will reach $2,700 per ounce, an increase of about 8%; ② Since the beginning of this year, the price of gold has risen by 21%, outperforming the S&P 500 index.
Goldman Sachs continues to be bullish on gold: hedging risks, central bank buying + Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, gold price rising to $2700 soon!
Due to the impact of the U.S. debt crisis, the Fed's interest rate reduction, and the hedging of value, Goldman Sachs believes that the price of gold still has over 8% room for increase by early next year, and if the U.S. debt concerns worsen, the gold price could even rise 15%.
Is the era of high interest rates coming to an end, with the nine major central banks globally entering into interest rate cuts in September?
Although inflation in the service industry remains a problem, it is widely expected that the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of England will continue to implement loose monetary policies in early 2025. Beat Wittmann, Chairman and Partner of Porta Advisors, stated that interest rate cuts may cause short-term volatility in U.S. stocks but still have investment value.
For seven consecutive years, there has been a 'September Crash' in the gold price! Can the gold price break this seasonal 'curse' this year?
Gold, which has been soaring to new heights since the beginning of this year, may face a severe "seasonal challenge" this month: Will the "September curse" reappear? Since 2017, the price of gold has fallen every September- during this period, the average drop in gold prices in September reached nearly 3.3%, making it undoubtedly the worst-performing month of the year.
Can gold break through the "September curse"?
Since 2017, gold has experienced a decline every September, with an average decline of 3.2%. September is the worst-performing month for gold during the year.
China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) semi-annual report summary data has a large blank space. Update: The incorrect announcement has been replaced.
①China Oil's semi-annual report summary announcement on the evening of the 28th has a major omission in the disclosure of financial data and other core content; ②Late that night, the erroneous announcement has been replaced, and the data disclosure in the announcement has been made up in authoritative release sources and designated disclosure platforms.
CNOOC's performance hits a new high for the same period in history, with a year-on-year increase of 25% in net income in the first half of the year | Financial Report News
Boosted by the double increase in oil & gas sales volume and international oil prices, CNOOC's performance has reached its highest level in the same period of history, with a 22% year-on-year increase in revenue and a 25% year-on-year increase in net income in the first half of the year.