Investors Dump Long-Dated Treasury ETF At Record Pace Ahead Of Trump's White House Return
What does a 1.7% yield on a 10-year government bond signify?
Xinda Securities believes that the recent pricing of the 10-year government bond yields reflects the potential for a decline in the OMO rate next year. Based on the economic outlook and monetary policy environment for 2025, it is anticipated that a reduction of 50 basis points in the OMO rate may be necessary to achieve a marginal easing similar to that of 2024, which suggests that the 1.7% yield on the 10-year government bonds does not appear to be overly priced.
Top ten macro events globally in 2024: The US and Japan central banks both pivot, China's Assets explode, and epic surge of Gold and Bitcoin.
This year, major global central banks, including the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, have all entered a path of easing, while the Bank of Japan announced the end of the negative interest rate era. The narrowing of the interest rate differential between Japan and the USA briefly spurred a reversal in yen carry trades. Chinese assets have strongly rebounded under the boost of policy 'combinations'. The US elections have driven the 'Trump trade' to become popular, with Bitcoin and Gold, the two major assets, dominating in chaotic times.
January's Must-see Financial Events: CES 2025, Q4 Earnings Season, and Trump's Inauguration Day
Is the next "explosive" market threshold for US Treasury bonds 4.75%?
Julian Emanuel, a strategist at Evercore ISI, stated that although long-term corporate earnings remain a driving force in the stock market, rising bond yields will pose the greatest challenge to the U.S. bull market. He expects that if the 10-year Treasury yield stays below 4.5%, the U.S. stock market will still have the ability to overcome pressure and continue to rise. However, if yields exceed 4.75%, it could trigger a longer and deeper stock market adjustment.
The best-performing major Assets in 2024 will be: Bitcoin, Gold, US stocks, and Chinese long-term bonds.
Huatai Fixed Income states that the leading Assets in 2024 will include Bitcoin, Gold, US stocks, and China long-term bonds, while lagging Assets will include domestic Commodities, Euros, and Crude Oil Product. From the perspective of the Industry and individual stocks, the leading Assets are backed by long-term trends such as changes in the AI Technology Industry Chain, China's emotional Consumer chain, and safe-haven Assets in an uncertain environment.