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After the USD index broke through 107, the offshore RMB returned to 7.25. The central bank once again mentioned exchange rate flexibility, with tolerance for volatility possibly increasing.
① The US dollar index rose and broke through the key level of 107. The offshore renminbi against the US dollar once again reached the 7.25 level, last time was at the end of July. ② The head of the International Department of the People's Bank of China stated that he insists on the decisive role of the market in the formation of exchange rates, maintains the flexibility of exchange rates, and strengthens expectation guidance. The tolerance of management for fluctuations in the renminbi exchange rate may be increasing. The market generally believes that 7.30 is the recent resistance level.
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The central bank today conducted a 981 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation for 7 days, with short-term fluctuations in liquidity being controllable, and the market expects a possible reserve requirement ratio cut in November.
①Today, 12.2 billion yuan reverse repos will mature, in addition to 1450 billion yuan MLF and 80 billion yuan of treasury cash deposits maturing. The central bank conducted a 981 billion yuan 7-day reverse repo operation. Industry insiders believe that under the new framework of the central bank, there may be a reserve requirement ratio cut once this year, possibly as early as November.
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Over 1.5 trillion funds will mature this week, and the market is once again calling for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts. Will the reserve requirement ratio be cut in late November to lower interest rates early next year?
1. Mid-term interest rate cuts are subject to dual constraints of exchange rates and net interest margins; it is more feasible to reduce the reserve requirement ratio in the short term, and it is expected to be announced in late November and implemented in early December. 2. To maintain flexibility, it is necessary to retain the possibility of offsetting the additional tariffs imposed by the United States through devaluation. 3. The best window for further interest rate cuts in China is expected to be before Q1 of 2025.
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① The median forecast for new RMB loans in October is 0.58 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 0.16 trillion yuan; ② The median forecast for new social financing scale in October is 1.47 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 0.38 trillion yuan; ③ The year-on-year reading of CPI in October may remain unchanged, while the year-on-year decline in PPI may narrow; ④ Fiscal policy will increase countercyclical adjustment efforts, and the central bank still has ample space for expanding its balance sheet.
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Caixin C50 Wind Index Survey: October crediting may be slightly tight, expected slight decrease in social financing growth.
①The median forecast for new RMB loans in October is 0.58 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year decrease in incremental growth of 0.16 trillion yuan; ②The median forecast for new social financing scale in October is 1.47 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year decrease in incremental growth of 0.38 trillion yuan; ③October CPI year-on-year reading may remain unchanged, while PPI year-on-year decline may narrow; ④Fiscal policy will increase countercyclical adjustment efforts, and the central bank still has a relatively large space for balance sheet expansion.
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Corporate loan interest rates hit a record low! In the first three quarters, the total financing provided by Beijing's financial system was nearly 950 billion yuan. In September, the weighted average interest rate for corporate loans dropped to 2.87%.
1. In the first three quarters of this year, the regions financial institutions in peking continued to show a growth trend in crediting. As of the end of September, the balance of various loans and deposits in RMB increased by 5.4% and 9.4% respectively year-on-year. 2. Since the beginning of this year, the average weighted interest rate for new corporate loans issued by financial institutions in peking has remained at a relatively low level, with the September average interest rate for corporate loans at 2.87%, reaching a new low in statistics.
The central bank: In September, various types of bonds totaling 7603.15 billion yuan were issued in the bond market.
On October 30, the People's Bank of China released the financial market operation situation for September 2024.