SA Asks: Will a Fed Rate Cut Impact Market Seasonality?
jpmorgan stands its ground as traders reignite expectations of a 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve
US Treasury traders have once again increased their bets on a 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve next week, a scenario that was almost completely ruled out just a few days ago. On Friday, the probability of a 50 basis point rate cut climbed to 40%, up from only 4% earlier this week. This repricing has intensified the rally in US Treasury bonds, leading to the largest gain in small-cap stocks in three weeks and putting pressure on the US dollar. Earlier this week, the possibility of a 50 basis point rate cut was almost completely ruled out, but traders' views have rapidly changed due to a report on Thursday that indicated Fed policy makers are considering a conventional 25 basis point rate cut.
Citigroup Options Spot-On: On September 13th, 107.59K Contracts Were Traded, With 2.41 Million Open Interest
BGC Group to Launch Investment Bank-Backed FMX Futures Exchange
The tightening policies in the banking industry are showing results. Overdue credit for US consumers is stabilizing.
Bankers and industry analysts have indicated this week that after an earlier rise in delinquent payments for US consumer credit cards and other loans, they have recently started to stabilize.
Market Chatter: US Consumer Credit, Loan Delinquency Rates Said to Decline In August
Citi: Lowering target price for the three major airlines, with Air China Limited as the top choice.
Citigroup released a research report stating that it downgraded China Eastern Airlines (00670) from "buy" to "sell", and lowered the target price from HK$2.53 to HK$1.7. China Southern Airlines (01055) was downgraded from "buy" to "neutral", with the target price reduced from HK$3.8 to HK$2.8. Although the bank maintained a "buy" rating and listed Air China (00753) as its top pick, the target price was reduced from HK$5.35 to HK$3.8. The report stated that the mainland aviation industry experienced weak prices despite a strong passenger volume growth of 12% compared to last year, according to CAAC statistics.
On September 12, Wells Fargo & Co was restricted from conducting new business and ranked among the top 20 in trading volume on the US stock market.
NVIDIA, the number one trading volume in US stocks on Thursday, rose 1.92%, continuing the strong upward trend from Wednesday, with a trading volume of 43.099 billion US dollars. NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang reiterated on Wednesday at the Goldman Sachs Technology Conference that the Blackwell chip is already in full production and will start shipping in the fourth quarter. Huang previously stated that there is strong demand for the Blackwell chip, and suppliers' production is catching up. Goldman Sachs reaffirmed its "buy" rating for NVIDIA and continued to include it in the conviction buy list with a target price of $135. Tesla, the second-place, rose 0.74% with a trading volume of 16.43 billion US dollars.
Citigroup Options Spot-On: On September 12th, 118.39K Contracts Were Traded, With 2.35 Million Open Interest
Unusual Options Activity: EQT, AR and Others Attract Market Bets, EQT V/OI Ratio Reaches 722.1
Huiyu will issue bonds to raise $14 billion for the acquisition of juniper networks.
Cloud computing service company Huize announced a series of measures on Thursday to raise $14 billion in financing for the acquisition of Juniper Networks, including term loans and a seven-part bond trade. According to a statement, Huize will offer 2-year fixed and floating rate notes, 3-year fixed rate notes, 5-year fixed rate notes, 7-year fixed rate notes, 10-year fixed rate notes, and 30-year fixed rate notes. The bond issuance is expected to raise $6.5 billion, with Citigroup, jpmorgan, and Mizuho serving as underwriters.
Largest U.S. Banks Will Catch a Break From Fed's Capital Rule Changes, KBW Says
Citigroup's Options: A Look at What the Big Money Is Thinking
Morgan Stanley Maintains Citigroup(C.US) With Buy Rating, Maintains Target Price $79
Citi: Reiterates 'buy' rating for Times Electric, with a target price of HK $43.2.
Citigroup's research report reaffirmed the buy rating for Times Electric (03898) with a target price of HKD 43.2. The bank expects Times Electric's ROE to gradually recover to 11% and 12.2% in 2024 and 2025, respectively, approaching the level of 2019. The management of Times Electric pointed out that the company has many positive factors, including a net profit of 0.708 billion yuan for its power semiconductor business in the first half of this year, of which 0.1 billion to 0.15 billion yuan is contributed by government subsidies. Therefore, the bank believes that the approximately 20% drop in the stock price after the second quarter results this year is not justified.
Citi: Initiates a 90-day upward catalyst observation period for Innovent Bio, with a target price of 62 Hong Kong dollars.
Citigroup released a research report stating that Innovent Bio (01801) has entered a 90-day upward catalyst observation period. The bank expects that driven by new products, Innovent Bio's strong growth momentum will continue. Taletrectinib (ROS1) / Mazdutide / IBI311 (IGF-1R) / IBI112 (IL-23 p19) are expected to be approved in the second half of the year or next year. The target price is 62 Hong Kong dollars, rated as "buy/high risk".
The central parity rate of the Renminbi is reported as 7.1214, down 32 points.
On September 12th, the central parity rate of the RMB was reported at 7.1214, down 32 basis points from the previous trading day's central parity rate of 7.1182. Citigroup's bet on the Fed's interest rate cut range to be lowered predicts a 25 basis point rate cut in September. Citigroup economists have abandoned their forecast of a 50 basis point rate cut at the Fed's meeting next week, instead expecting a 25 basis point cut while maintaining their expectation of a total of 125 basis points of rate cuts this year. Economist Andrew Hollenhorst wrote in a report that the August CPI data released on Wednesday "may only be sufficient to persuade the FOMC to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at next week's meeting, rather than 50 basis points."
Foreign headlines: Trump is not inclined to debate with Harris again. OpenAI is reportedly in talks to raise funds at a valuation of $150 billion. Citi expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September.
The global financial media's top headlines that were jointly focused on last night and this morning are mainly as follows: Trump: Not inclined to debate with Harris again. Donald Trump said he is not inclined to have another debate with Kamala Harris. Previously, he had proposed to have a few more debates in addition to Tuesday's debate for supplemental purposes. 'I am not inclined to do so because I won this debate, and the advantage is great,' the former president said in an interview with Fox News on Wednesday morning, refuting analysts' claims that the Vice President defeated him. 'I don't know if I want to debate again.' He also said Harris's request for more debates indicated that she was in weekly.
Citigroup Options Spot-On: On September 11th, 80,093 Contracts Were Traded, With 2.34 Million Open Interest
Express News | Citi Expects Lithium To Bounce 20-25% Over The Next 2-3 Months On Supply Curtailment Led Physical Rebalancing And Short Covering
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