AUD Can Fall Towards 0.6360/0.6340 – BBH
The australian dollar and the new zealand dollar are striving to remain stable, with the Reserve Bank of Australia expected to cut interest rates for the first time as early as February next year.
As the US dollar recedes from some of its recent gains, the australian dollar and new zealand dollar remained steady on Wednesday (November 20), having earlier reached a weekly high, with prospects of continuing the upward trend into the fourth trading day. The market is waiting to see whom incoming President Trump will select for Treasury Secretary and how likely this candidate will be in advancing Trump's comprehensive tariff and tax proposals, as the rise of the dollar has paused. The australian dollar continues to receive some support from stable interest rate prospects, as the last minutes from the reserve bank of australia's meeting indicated that the bank remains vigilant about inflationary risks. Analysts at jpmorgan wrote in a report: 'In relation to macro data
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Minutes of the australia Reserve Bank meeting: The current restrictive interest rates are appropriate.
The Reserve Bank of Australia believes that the current policy settings are appropriate to bring down the still "too high" core inflation. During a meeting two weeks ago, discussions focused on the possibility of needing to lower interest rates, raise them, or maintain higher rates for a longer period. In the minutes of the November 5 resolution released by the Reserve Bank of Australia in Sydney on Tuesday (November 19), it was stated: "Australia's monetary policy is assessed as restrictive, but to what extent it remains uncertain, and broader financial conditions have eased in recent months." The Reserve Bank of Australia's board noted that the staff forecasts released with the resolution are based on technical assumptions, namely that the cash rate will be in 2025.
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The monetary policy effectiveness of the Reserve Bank of australia is not stronger than other economies.
A senior official of the Reserve Bank of Australia said that despite Australian households holding a large amount of variable rate mortgage debt, the effectiveness of Australia's monetary policy is not stronger than that of other developed economies. Assistant Governor Christopher Kent stated on Monday (November 18) that the core estimates of GDP and inflation declines after unexpected interest rate hikes according to the RBA model are close to those derived from models in the USA, Eurozone, united kingdom, Canada, and Sweden. Chart: As other central banks begin to cut interest rates, the Reserve Bank of Australia keeps its rates unchanged (white is the Federal Reserve, blue is the Reserve Bank of Australia, purple is the Bank of England, yellow.
RBA's Kent: Forward Guidance in Australia Might Be Less Useful Than in the United States
RBA Policy Effect Is No Stronger Than Other Economies, Kent Says
Aussie Dollar Looking Attractive