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The Global bond market is experiencing a frantic sell-off, with US Treasury yields quickly approaching 5%.
The 20-year US Treasury yield has already broken through 5%, while the UK 10-Year Treasury Notes Yield has also risen to 4.82%, reaching a new high since 2008. Inflation worries have prompted traders to lower their expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England this year, and at the same time, the market is weighing the impact of President Trump's policies.
The last time the US bonds dropped like this, the US stock market also crashed.
Recently, the rise of the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is similar to the situation in 2022 and 2023, when the stock market experienced a substantial decline. Goldman Sachs stated that although the U.S. stock market is relatively stable now, the correlation between stock and bond yields has turned negative. If economic data falls short of expectations, the risk of a market correction in the short term may increase.
1/9 [Strong and Weak Materials]
[Bullish and Bearish Indicators] Bullish indicators: Dow Jones Industrial Average is rising (42,635.20, +106.84); 1 dollar = 158.30-40 yen; VIX index is decreasing (17.70, -0.12); active Share Buyback; requests from the Tokyo Stock Exchange for corporate value enhancement. Bearish indicators: Nasdaq Composite Index is falling (19,478.88, -10.80); Nikkei average is falling (39,981.06, -102.24); Chicago Nikkei Futures are falling (39,935, -25); SOX index is falling (5,162.35, -49).
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U.S. stock market close: the three major indexes varied in performance; Huang Renxun's remarks caused a collapse in the Quantum Computing Sector.
① The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index fell by 0.67%, with most China Concept Stocks declining; ② Wildfires ravaged California, and Electrical Utilities provider Edison International fell by 10%; ③ Jensen Huang stated that a "very useful" quantum computer may take several decades to arrive; ④ Intel: will continue to focus on the independent graphics card market.
S&P 500 Positive for 'First Five Days,' Huang Sees Decades till Quantum | Wall Street Today
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The farewell message from the SEC Chairman of the USA: the Cryptos field is filled with "bad practitioners."
The chairman of the USA Securities and Exchange Commission, Gary Gensler, stated that Cryptos are a field built on a foundation of "non-compliance", where the influence of market sentiment far exceeds the fundamentals, and most Crypto projects ultimately will not survive.
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Oak Tree Capital's Marks: New things are prone to bubbles, currently private equity buying S&P 500, with a 10-year yield of only ±2%.
Max recently released a memorandum titled "Revisiting the Bubble," stating that investors are currently betting on the leading high-tech companies to maintain their dominance. However, he believes that it is not easy to stay ahead, as new technologies and competitors can surpass existing market leaders at any time. When people assume that "things can only get better" and Buy based on that, the impact of negative news can be particularly severe. He specifically pointed out the frenzy over AI and how this positive sentiment may spread to other Technology sectors.
Howard Marks on Bubble Watch: Stock Valuations High but Not Nutty