usa crude oil market lit up with a red light for the first time in nine months: warning of oversupply sounded!
The global oil market once again sends a warning signal of oversupply, with an important indicator in the usa crude oil market — the prompt price difference falling to a negative value for the first time.
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Stocks, bonds, and other assets are already expensive relative to historical levels. Trump's trade protectionism policy may lead to a resurgence of inflation and force the Federal Reserve to maintain interest rates at high levels for a longer period of time. In addition, the US economy is facing continuously expanding fiscal deficits and a labor market that is already showing signs of fatigue, which could put pressure on the economic growth outlook.
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IEA: Crude oil demand growth in 2024 may be halved, with a surplus of over one million barrels of crude oil expected every day next year.
In terms of demand, the IEA expects that this year, global oil consumption will increase by 0.92 million barrels per day, which is less than half of the growth rate in 2023. By 2025, demand will grow by 0.99 million barrels per day. However, the IEA predicts that supply growth will continue, with production from countries such as the usa, Brazil, Canada, and Guyana increasing by 1.5 million barrels per day this year and next.