Has the Indian stock market hit bottom? There is a divergence on Wall Street.
Since the peak last September, India's benchmark stock index Nifty 50 Index has fallen over 10%, entering a correction zone. Some believe that slowing corporate earnings will drag down India's stock market performance this year, but most opinions remain bullish on Indian stocks, expecting a possible decline in the fiscal deficit rate, increased government investment in infrastructure, and a return of Indian stock valuations to a reasonable range to support the recovery of Indian stocks.
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Is the new low just the beginning? Former India central bank officials hint at "relaxing Forex controls". How much further will the rupee fall?
Former central bank officials hinted at "easing Forex controls," causing the rupee to briefly dip below the 86 mark. Mitsubishi UFJ believes that the current account deficit as a percentage of GDP is widening, foreign direct investment (FDI) performance is disappointing, and under the risk of Trump 2.0 tariffs, the rupee will fall to 86.80 in the first quarter and to 88.50 in the fourth quarter.
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With corporate profits slowing and foreign investment withdrawing, the Indian stock market is expected to underperform against major Global peers in 2024.
The Nifty 50 Index and the Sensex Index rose by 8.8% and 8.2% respectively this year, marking the ninth consecutive year of growth.
The demand for India's ten-year government bonds is strong, with yields recording the largest annual decline in four years.
The India 10-Year Treasury Notes Yield experienced the largest decline in four years in 2024.
The secrets to the long bull market in the Indian stock market are: T+0 Trade, strict regulation, a healthy "repurchase culture," and widespread participation of mutual Funds...
Guosen believes that the complete structure and institutional development of the Indian securities market are the fundamental reasons for its long-term bull market. A diversified competitive market structure, simplified IPO processes with low Market Cap requirements, strict (Delisted) regulations, a flexible trading system with T+1 as the main and T+0 as a supplement, stable repurchases and dividends, widespread participation of mutual Funds, and so on, are all the secrets to the Indian stock market achieving a long bull run.
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