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Wall Street macro traders see worst annual performance since the epidemic outbreak.
Global banks' forex and interest rate trading revenue is expected to hit the lowest level since the pandemic, influenced by narrowing profit margins and a challenging macroeconomic environment. According to data collected by Coalition Greenwich, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Citigroup, Morgan Stanley, and over 250 other companies' G-10 interest rate trading is projected to collectively generate 32 billion USD in revenue, while forex trading revenue is expected to be 16.7 billion USD, representing year-on-year reductions of approximately 17% and 9%, respectively. Investor confidence in making significant macro trading views has declined this year, as unexpected economic data has undermined expectations of interest rate cuts from major global central banks.
J.P. Morgan: Maintains netease-S "shareholding" rating, target price raised to 185 Hong Kong dollars.
JPMorgan released a research report stating that the expectation of accelerated gaming revenue and strong shareholder returns could support the re-evaluation of Netease-S (09999) valuation in the next 6 to 12 months, maintaining a "shareholding" rating. The adjusted earnings per share forecast for the next fiscal year has been raised by 5% to 57.6 RMB. In response to the strong performance of the gaming business, it continues to be listed as a preferred stock in the digital entertainment sector, with the target price raised from 170 HKD to 185 HKD. The report states that Netease's stock price has risen by about 8% this month, outperforming the performance of Chinese internet stocks during the same period, which is believed to be due to better-than-expected gaming revenue in the third quarter, and in the face of macro uncertainties, investment
Express News | JPMorgan Revises Expectation for Brazil's Interest Rate in the End of the Current Cycle to 14.25% From 13%
Express News | JPMorgan Sees Brazil's Central Bank Hiking Rates by 100BP in Next Meeting - Report
JPMorgan Chase & Co. Stock
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Jpmorgan strategist: It is expected that the trend of polarization in the stock market will continue.
jpmorgan stated that the current stage of polarized performance in the regional market may continue until the first half of 2025, as investors will need to digest the potential heating trade uncertainties. Strategists like Mislav Matejka noted that the direction of the dollar and bonds yields is also crucial, and with the rising geopolitical uncertainties, the performance of the stock market at the beginning of the year may be more mixed. It was mentioned that the multiples in the international market do not appear excessive, while the usa valuations remain relatively high, but the relative spreads may stay elevated for a longer time. Due to extreme differences in inventory, valuations, and prices, the international stock market in 2025 may fare differently compared to the usa stock market.
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The rise in stock prices has triggered a chain reaction! Deutsche Bank warns that major Wall Street firms may reduce share buybacks.
Deutsche Bank stated that US bank stocks have rebounded since the end of September.
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jpmorgan: As the dollar rises, the euro will surpass parity in 2025.
jpmorgan stated in the "2025 Global Forex Outlook" released on Tuesday that due to the "reinforcement of the usa exceptionalism, high interest rates, enhanced productivity, and widening innovation gaps," the dollar will strengthen and reach new highs, while the euro is expected to break parity in early 2025. The market has not yet fully absorbed the usa elections, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts are insufficient to reverse the recent strength of the dollar; growth outside the usa seems unlikely to rebound, which helps support the dollar. jpmorgan expects the euro to usd exchange rates to reach 0.99 by the end of March, followed by a rebound to 1.08 by the end of the year; the market in the first quarter will further digest the situation.