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The short position of jpmorgan's usa treasury clients has risen to the highest level in a month.
JPMorgan's survey of US Treasury clients shows that as of the week ending November 25, both long and short positions increased by 2 percentage points each, while neutral positions decreased by 4 percentage points. Short positions reached their highest level since October 28, while neutral positions hit their lowest point since October 21. All clients (November 25 compared to November 18): Long: 22 vs. 20; Neutral: 67 vs. 71; Short: 11 vs. 9; Net long: 11 vs. 11. Active clients long: 22 vs. 22; Neutral: 78 vs. 78; Short: 0 vs. 0; Net long: 22 vs. 22.
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Overnight news: US stocks closed higher, Dow hit a new high, escalation of Russia-Ukraine conflict boosted oil prices, Tesla is preparing for the Cybertruck to enter the China market
For more global financial news, please visit the 7×24 hours real-time financial news market close: The Dow Jones closed over 400 points higher, setting a new historical high. All three major indices recorded gains this week. On November 22, the top 20 transactions in the US stock market: It is reported that Tesla is preparing for the Cybertruck's entry into the china market. On Friday, china concept stocks showed mixed results, with WeRide rising 9.2% and pdd holdings falling 3.9%. The crude oil in the usa rose 6.5% this week, while the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict pushed oil prices higher. Spot gold rose 5.7% in five days, regaining the $2,700 mark. European stocks all closed higher, with Germany's DAX 30 index up 0.84%. Macro.
European Central Bank rate cut bets surge, Euro falls to lowest level since 2022.
The euro fell to its lowest level in two years, with traders betting that the European Central Bank will have to cut interest rates significantly to boost the local economy. Data on Friday showed that the business activities of the two largest economies in the euro area shrank more than expected, causing the euro to fall more than 1% against the dollar to touch a low of 1.0335 since November 2022. The market's implied probability of a 50 basis points rate cut by the European Central Bank next month has surged from around 15% on Thursday to over 50%. "This report does make a 50 basis points rate cut a possibility," said Matthew Landon, global market strategist at JPMorgan Private Bank, adding that shorting the euro is.
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Viewpoint Summary: jpmorgan expects oversupply of oil next year. ECB officials discuss interest rate prospects.
European Central Bank officials expressed different opinions on the interest rate outlook. Vice President Guindos believes that the path is more important than the magnitude of the cuts. Governing Council member Villeroy stated confidence in achieving inflation targets, while Council member Centeno pointed out that if risks materialize, larger rate cuts could be considered. jpmorgan expects that even if OPEC+ extends production cuts, the oil market will still face a significant oversupply. The Vice President of the European Central Bank stated that the path of interest rate cuts is more important than the magnitude of the cuts. Luis de Guindos emphasized that the central bank is clearly on the path of rate cuts, but the magnitude of the cuts at each monetary policy meeting has not been substantial.
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jpmorgan expects the average price of Brent crude oil to be $73 per barrel in 2025.
JPMorgan stated in a report on Friday that the bank expects the average Brent oil price to be $73 per barrel in 2025 and predicts it will be comfortably below $70 per barrel by the end of this year, with US crude oil at $64 per barrel. "Our outlook for 2025 has remained largely unchanged over the past year: we expect a significant surplus of 1.3 million barrels per day, and the average price of Brent crude oil will reach $73," the report said. The bank believes that the growth rate of global oil demand will decline from 1.3 million barrels per day this year to 1.1 million barrels per day next year, adding that China is expected to lead oil demand for the last time.
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