MSFMAIN Micro CHF/USD Futures(MAR5)
- 1.1130
- -0.0024-0.22%
Micro CHF/USD Futures(MAR5) News
SNB Stayed Out of FX Markets Despite Third-Quarter Franc Rally
USD/Swiss Franc analysis: After the Swiss National Bank unexpectedly cut interest rates by 0.50%, the Swiss Franc declined.
On Thursday (December 12), during the European session, USD/Swiss Franc rose by 0.8% in the morning, reaching a two-week high, after the Swiss National Bank unexpectedly cut interest rates by 50 basis points (from 1% to 0.50%), while the market generally expected a 25 basis points cut. This marks the fourth policy easing in 2024 after three 0.25% cuts in March, June, and September, and it is also the largest rate cut in nearly a decade. The Swiss National Bank indicated it will continue to monitor the situation and take appropriate actions to maintain price stability and keep inflation within the target Range of 0%-2% (the inflation rate in November was 0.7%).
The Swiss Franc Central Bank has implemented its largest interest rate cut since the "Black Swan" event in 2015, nearly returning to a zero interest rate.
① The extent of this interest rate cut exceeded the expectations of most economists; ② The mainstream view holds that, faced with low inflation and the pressure of the European Central Bank continuing to cut rates, the Swiss National Bank will return to "zero interest rates" next year; ③ Due to the weakness of the European economy, political crises in France and Germany, and the risk effect from Trump, funds are flowing into the Swiss Franc for safe-haven and speculation, and the Swiss Franc/Euro has reached a new high in nearly 10 years.
Under the dual pressure of the strong Swiss Franc and low inflation, the Swiss National Bank is gradually moving towards zero interest rates.
As the Swiss National Bank may lower borrowing costs this week, the Swiss Franc's two-year period of positive interest rate policy is nearing its end.
Swiss Franc Could Turn Weaker as Rate Differentials Outweigh Safe-Haven Demand -- Market Talk
SNB Set for Half-Point Cut After Inflation Data Undershoots Forecasts -- Market Talk
Swiss Inflation Edges Up as SNB Readies Rate Cut -- Update
Swiss Franc Might Remain Firm on ECB Rate Cuts, Safe-Haven Demand -- Market Talk
swiss franc inflation fell in October, and the probability of a significant interest rate cut in November increased!
Swiss inflation has once again fallen, raising the possibility of the Swiss National Bank implementing negative interest rates. In October, Switzerland's Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell by 0.1% month-on-month, with the year-on-year growth rate dropping to 0.6%, below the Swiss National Bank's expectation of 1.0% average inflation for the fourth quarter. Following the news release, the Swiss franc depreciated against all G10 currencies. Deutsche Bank forex analyst George Saravelos said: "Swiss inflation data further fell into deflationary territory, and we believe the likelihood of negative interest rates has once again increased." The next Swiss National Bank decision will be held on December 12 at 16:30 Beijing time.
Swiss inflation drops to the lowest level in three years, the central bank is determined to cut interest rates in December.
In October, the inflation rate in swiss franc decreased to the lowest level in more than three years, indicating that the Swiss National Bank will further cut interest rates in both this year and 2025.
Swiss National Bank Vice President Martin: further interest rate cuts may be implemented this year, eventually considering a negative interest rate.
Swiss National Bank Vice President Antoine Martin said on Thursday that the Swiss National Bank may cut interest rates again this year due to the moderate economic growth and low inflation rate in Switzerland. "Due to Switzerland's relatively low inflation rate, and economic growth can be faster, this tends to lower the policy rate," Martin said at an event organized by the Swiss Financial Analysts Association in Zurich. Martin mentioned the remarks of other officials from the Swiss National Bank who stated last month that they may cut interest rates again. Martin
Swiss Market Index Joins European Rally
swiss franc inflation rate in September fell to a new low in three years, swiss franc central bank is expected to further cut interest rates.
Swiss franc inflation rate in September dropped to the lowest level in over three years, indicating that the country's central bank is expected to further loosen monetary policy.
The Swiss National Bank persists in steadily lowering interest rates to curb the strength of the Swiss franc.
The Swiss National Bank has lowered the policy interest rate by 0.25 percentage points to 1.0% to address the easing of Swiss inflationary pressures. The central bank also warns that if necessary, more measures will be taken to curb the strength of the Swiss franc.
The Swiss National Bank has cut the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 1%.
The Swiss National Bank lowered its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 1%, marking the third consecutive rate cut, in line with market expectations.
One graph: 21 central banks have cut interest rates by more than 50 basis points. How will the Swiss National Bank's decision affect the Swiss franc?
The Swiss National Bank will release its interest rate decision at 15:30 on Thursday, September 26th, Beijing time. The median expectation from media surveys indicates that the Swiss National Bank is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points to 1.00%. However, some market players are betting that the Swiss National Bank will cut rates by 50 basis points. Let's take a look at the latest developments in central bank decisions in 168 countries/regions globally, as well as an analysis of the USD/CHF exchange rate.
Swiss franc central bank meeting: Will there be a rate cut of 25 basis points or 50 basis points?
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) is once again ready to cut interest rates. The market currently believes that there is a 49% chance that the SNB will choose to cut interest rates by 50 basis points on Thursday, completely ruling out the possibility of a third consecutive 25 basis points cut to 1.0%.
Swiss authorities sharply lowered their inflation forecasts for the next two years. The Swiss central bank is expected to lower interest rates again next week.
The Swiss government significantly lowered its inflation expectations on Thursday, in line with market expectations that the Swiss central bank will cut interest rates again at its policy meeting next week.
Institutions: Switzerland will cut interest rates three more times this year, but the Swiss franc will continue to perform well!
Swiss private bank J. Safra Sarasin economists forecast that the Swiss National Bank will cut interest rates in September, December, and March. However, the highly uncertain global macroeconomic outlook, the pullback in global bond yields, and the uncertainty of global geopolitics will support the Swiss Franc, and the Swiss Franc is expected to continue to perform well. The institution predicts that by the end of 2024, the USD/CHF exchange rate will be 0.87, by the end of the first quarter of 2025 it will be 0.86, by the end of the second quarter of 2025 it will be 0.85, and by the end of 2025 it will be 0.82.
Weak Swiss franc inflation paves the way for further interest rate cuts.
The Swiss franc's inflation rate in August fell from 1.3% the previous month to 1.1%, lower than the expected 1.2%. In April and May, the year-on-year price increase rose to 1.4%, but then began to decline, falling by 0.2% in the past three months.