"Rate cut trade" and "Trump trade" led the entire market, small-cap stocks rose strongly and csi commodity equity index fell across the board. | Overseas major asset weekly report
The U.S. stock market continues to witness a "big shift" in the market, as investors accelerate their exit from large technology stocks. The "Trump trade" has raised concerns about inflation and pushed up the yield on U.S. long-term bonds, putting pressure on the dollar, and most commodity prices have fallen.
Williams of the US Federal Reserve: Long-term economic trends in the USA support maintaining low neutral interest rates.
Federal Reserve Bank of New York President Williams pointed out that the long-term trend of the neutral interest rate level decreasing before the outbreak of the epidemic still exists.
Economists lower US inflation expectations, is the timing of Fed rate cuts becoming more mature?
Economists have lowered their inflation expectations for the first half of 2025 in the USA and expect a slight uptick in unemployment, which they believe will prompt the Federal Reserve to begin cutting interest rates.
New Zealand: 2Q24 Inflation Eases Faster Than Expected – UOB Group
Inflation in New Zealand slowed more than expected in 2Q24, and it is cooling faster than expected, UOB Group economist Lee Sue Ann notes.
NZD/USD: Next Support Level Is at 0.6005 – UOB Group
he New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is likely to decline.
New Zealand Shares End Roughly Flat; Warehouse Leaps -- Market Talk
0543 GMT - New Zealand's NZX-50 index ended Friday close to its overnight level after a large postsession adjustment, cementing a 1.6% gain for the week as a whole.
New Zealand's Credit Card Spending Falls 0.7% in June; Credit Card Balances Rise 0.1%
Total credit card billings in New Zealand on a seasonally adjusted basis fell 0.7% month on month in June to NZ$4.3 billion, according to statistics released Friday by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
USD/JPY Surges, US Treasury Yields Rise, Stocks Slump
The US Dollar surged against the Japanese Yen despite talk of suspected intervention by Japanese officials. At the close of trade in New York, the USD/JPY pair was up at 157.30 from 156.20 yesterday.
Another important leading indicator has been triggered! How far is the USA from recession?
The current unemployment rate is only a step away from triggering the Sarn Rule, but it has triggered another recession indicator, the Dudle's Rule.
Fed's Daly: Inflation target not yet achieved, job market at turning point.
San Francisco Fed Chair Daly said that some recent inflation data was "very good," but that the Fed has yet to achieve price stability.
Labor market becomes the latest focus. The Fed may lower interest rates in September.
Federal Reserve officials are shifting their focus from inflation to the labor market.
Fed's Powell: May need to cut rates quickly to avoid further deterioration in the labor market.
Goolsby said that the central bank may need to lower borrowing costs as soon as possible to avoid further deterioration of the labor market, which has been cooling down in recent months.
NZD/USD Price Analysis: Pair Stuck in 0.6050-0.6070 Range, Bears in Control
During Thursday's session, the NZD/USD dropped by 0.60% to touch the 0.6050 level.
The issuer of the loan is waiting for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates.
Leveraged loan issuers are taking advantage of strong investor demand to push for clauses to lower future loan costs and provide a buffer against the Fed's high interest rates. They are increasingly requesting the addition of so-called rate-reduction provisions in loans that can lower their rates by typically a quarter of a percentage point if they hit certain targets, which usually include initial public offerings, credit rating upgrades, or reduced debt burdens. According to data, 14 leveraged loan deals with rate-reduction provisions priced in June, the most this year and the largest amount since January (1).
US Dollar Rebounds Despite Concerns Over Labor Market, Rate Cut Expectations Steady
On Thursday, the US Dollar measured by the DXY index experienced a rebound, closing in on the 104.00 mark, despite concerns over the labor market.
Fed's Goolsbee: Inflation Fight Is Not Done but I Feel a Lot Better
In an interview with Yahoo Finance on Thursday, Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee noted that they have had multiple months of better inflation data. Goolsbee noted that he feels a lot better on inflation but added that the fight is not done yet.
NZD/USD Price Analysis: Exhibits Volatility Contraction Near 0.6070
Investors expect that the Fed will start reducing interest rates in September.
US: Initial Jobless Claims Increased More Than Estimated Last Week
US citizens that applied for unemployment insurance benefits increased by 243K in the week ending July 13 according to the US Department of Labor (DoL) on Thursday.
US Dollar Index Rises Toward 104.00 as Yields Improve, Awaits ECB Decision
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against six other major currencies, rebounds due to improved US Treasury yields.
USD: A Good Central Banker Is Like Whipped Cream – Commerzbank
There is probably a broad consensus in the market that a second Trump term would be inflationary.