Apollo's chief economist: In the coming weeks, the USA economy will face a series of shocks.
Torsten Slok stated that the recent soft data in the USA is showing signs of weakening economic activity, which may soon affect the performance of hard data; the current USA economy also faces two major shocks from government layoffs and increased tariffs, and inflation levels are expected to remain high for a long time. It is anticipated that Powell will express more concerns about the "weakness of hard data" at the FOMC meeting on the 19th, focusing on growth issues.
Tariffs intensify inflation, deepening concerns over an economic recession, and consumers in the USA are starting to struggle.
The USA consumer market is showing signs of weakness, with spending becoming more cautious from supermarket consumers to high-end travelers. Several industry giants have warned in their earnings reports meetings that first-quarter sales fell short of expectations, and the outlook for the year may be more severe than Wall Street predicts. High interest rates, sustained inflation, fluctuating tariff policies, and government layoffs are exacerbating market uncertainty, leading to a noticeable decline in consumer confidence.
US Equity Futures Gain Premarket as Risk of Government Shutdown Eases
Fed Expected to Cut Rates Twice This Year, Starting in September
"The new bond king" Gundlach: The possibility of a recession in the USA this year has risen to 60%.
① CEO of DoubleLine Capital, Gundlach, predicts a 60% probability of a recession in the USA this year and believes the dollar will devalue; ② He points out that Gold may surge to $4000 per ounce, and Copper and other CSI Commodity Equity Index commodities are performing strongly; ③ Gundlach also advises international diversification, recommending to Hold European Stocks and Other non-US stocks, as these markets may continue to perform well.
Bank of America reveals the motivation behind Trump's reform: one-third of GDP comes from fiscal expenditure, and 85% of new jobs rely on the government...
Bank of America pointed out that in the past, the growth of the USA economy has relied on unsustainable government support and protectionist policies. The Trump administration is trying to shift the USA economy's growth from an inefficient, debt-driven government growth model to an efficient, self-funding private sector growth model. Bank of America believes that this is a difficult but necessary process.