As fears around Trump rise, the trends in Emerging Markets MMF and Gold diverge.
Amid expectations of Trump possibly returning to the White House, the 30-day correlation between Gold and the MSCI Emerging Markets MMF Index has dropped to its lowest point in nearly three years. Over the past three years, these two Assets have been positively correlated 86% of the time, but now they are experiencing a 30-day negative correlation, which has occurred for only the fifth time in three years.
Gold Futures End Higher Amidst Ongoing Geopolitical Tensions
Gold Price Holds Ground Due to Safe-haven Demand Amid Rising Tensions in Middle East
Gold welcomes a "good start" in 2025! Wall Street envisions the gold price soaring to 3,000 USD in 2025.
Financial giants on Wall Street generally predict that the soaring gold prices in 2024 will rise further in 2025.
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Investors Sell Gold ETFs for Fourth Year Even With Fed Easing
Gold Trade Reminder: Gold prices achieved their best annual performance since 2010; pay attention to USA employment data during the day.
In the early morning of Thursday (January 2nd) in the Asian market, spot Gold fluctuated in a narrow range and is currently trading around 2623.38 USD/ounce. On Tuesday, Gold prices rose by 0.72%, closing at 2624.28 USD/ounce, contributing to a 27% increase in Gold prices in 2024, marking the largest annual gain since 2010, driven by safe-haven demand and interest rate cuts by central banks; however, market sentiment may become more cautious depending on policy shifts during Trump's second presidential term. Additionally, the USD hit a two-year high on Tuesday, and the 10-year yield in the USA recorded its best annual increase in two years, which also impacted Gold.
Gold Futures End Mixed
Gold Continues To Be Safe-Haven For Investors During Market Uncertainties
Gold Price Outlook: Key Levels to Watch for Potential Upside
Gold Trade Alert: The gold price has fallen below the 100-day moving average, possibly aiming for the 200-day moving average?
On Tuesday (December 31), at the beginning of the Asian market, spot Gold was fluctuating within a narrow range, currently trading around USD 2606.57 per ounce. Gold prices fell by 0.6% on Monday during quiet trading, briefly dropping below the USD 2600 mark to USD 2595.98 per ounce, closing at USD 2605.62 per ounce, below the critical position of the 100-day moving average near USD 2619. The USD index briefly hit a one-week high, putting pressure on Gold prices. However, most traders are waiting for new catalysts, including next week’s USA economic data, which could affect the Federal Reserve's interest rate outlook for 2025, as well as the incoming president.
The three major U.S. stock index futures fell, European stocks were mixed, and Japanese stocks closed with the Nikkei 225 Index rising 19% for the year.
The Europe Stoxx 50 Index fell by 0.46%, the DEGUODAXZHISHU rose by 0.68%, the UK FTSE100 Index fell by 0.36%, and the France CAC40 Index decreased by 0.39%.
Will Gold continue to shine in 2025? A review from five key dimensions.
In 2024, there will be few types of investments that can outperform Gold, which is about to have its strongest year since 2010 and one of the largest annual increases in history. Many Gold bulls on Wall Street believe that the price of Gold is expected to rise further in 2025.
The best-performing major Assets in 2024 will be: Bitcoin, Gold, US stocks, and Chinese long-term bonds.
Huatai Fixed Income states that the leading Assets in 2024 will include Bitcoin, Gold, US stocks, and China long-term bonds, while lagging Assets will include domestic Commodities, Euros, and Crude Oil Product. From the perspective of the Industry and individual stocks, the leading Assets are backed by long-term trends such as changes in the AI Technology Industry Chain, China's emotional Consumer chain, and safe-haven Assets in an uncertain environment.
Gold Trade Reminder: Gold prices are precariously holding the 100-day moving average, and this week will welcome the New Year holiday. Pay attention to the PMI data.
Spot Gold closed down 0.48% last Friday (December 30), ending at $2,620.96 per ounce, barely holding above the 100-day moving average of $2,616.01, due to rising U.S. Treasury yields, which diminished the appeal of non-yielding gold amid thin trading during the holiday. The market is focused on the return of President-elect Trump and the potential impact of his inflationary stimulus policies on the Federal Reserve's outlook before 2025. According to Bob Haberkorn, senior market strategist at RJO Futures, "Treasury yields are now slightly higher, and gold will remain under pressure in the short term... their action".
Thin Trading In Gold Futures Likely To Persist Into Next Week
Gold Declines as US Jobs Data Offer Few Clues on Fed's Rate Path
Gold Futures End Slightly Higher
Gold Climbs Amid Weaker Dollar and Rising Geopolitical Tensions
Gold Trade Reminder: Gold prices fluctuate in a narrow range on Christmas Eve, with the market focused on the Federal Reserve's actions in 2025.
On Wednesday (December 25), the Gold market will be closed for the Christmas holiday; Gold prices remained stable on Tuesday during light holiday trading, with investors looking ahead to the Federal Reserve's interest rate strategy and the tariff policies of President-elect Trump, which may impact the trend of Gold next year. Spot Gold fluctuated narrowly on Tuesday, closing up 0.16% at $2616.74 per ounce, with a daily range of only $11.36. Zain Vawda, a market Analyst at OANDA MarketPulse, said: "The current sideways movement seems to be mainly driven by a low liquidity environment."