Will July Retail Sales Confirm a Soft Landing -- or Fuel Recession Fears?
US inflation has cooled for four consecutive months in July, and employment data has become the "roadblock" to the last interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve.
In July, the inflation rate in the USA has dropped for the fourth consecutive month, which gives the Federal Reserve the possibility to decrease interest rates next month.
Goldman Sachs: The US CPI in July is of great concern, but more sensitive to retail sales and jobless claims data this week.
Goldman Sachs Senior Market Consultant Dom Wilson said on Tuesday that investors are preparing for the release of US CPI data for July on Wednesday, but as concerns about economic growth intensify, investors will also remain sensitive to other data this week.
A major shift in global capital funding! The proportion of stock allocation has dropped sharply, and the era of 'cash is king' is coming.
Bank of America's global fund manager survey released on Tuesday showed that institutional investors have increased their allocation to cash assets since August, as global economic growth expectations hit an eight-month low and U.S. recession expectations rose.
Will the rebound of the US stock market be inevitably rocky with the arrival of "Super Data Week"?
It is now market consensus that inflation is declining. This week's retail and first application data may be more important than PPI and CPI. "From now on, the data will tell us about the US economy: whether it is gradually slowing down or plummeting abruptly."
The most accurate analyst on Wall Street: It's no longer about “to cut or not to cut”, or “when to cut”, but rather “whether cutting interest rates is still effective”.
According to Michael Hartnett, Chief Strategist at Bank of America, significant interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve are necessary to prevent a recession. If certain key indicators are breached, the Wall Street narrative will shift from a soft landing to a hard landing. Hartnett recommends focusing on the US NFIB Small Business Confidence data, which will be released on Tuesday.
Will the financial market welcome a "heavy bullish"? The Federal Reserve may end this round of asset reduction by the end of this year.
Since June 2022, the Federal Reserve began implementing quantitative tightening policy, known as shrinking its balance sheet (QT); some Wall Street strategists have said that even though the pace of the balance sheet reduction has slowed recently, it is unlikely that a sudden announcement to end the balance sheet reduction will be made.
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Market liquidity flashing red again! The scale of overnight reverse repurchase agreements by the Fed has dropped to a new low of more than three years.
Over the past three trading days, as the repurchase market returned to normal after the pressure on balance sheets at the end of the month and settlement of treasury auctions, demand for the Federal Reserve's overnight reverse repurchase agreements decreased by about 97 billion US dollars. Many market participants and central bankers view the popularity of reverse repos as a sign of excess liquidity in the financial system, and vice versa.
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"Bond King" Gross: Value will win over growth in the long term unless AI can create a new era of productivity.
Bill Gross says if artificial intelligence-related companies can increase the productivity of the United States from the historical level of 1-2% of the past few decades to 2-3%, growth stocks may significantly outperform value stocks. But he thinks this is still a bet and advises investors to hold both value and growth stocks and not let any one stock dominate.
The demand continues to decline, and the prosperity of the US manufacturing industry is fading.
Producers of durable goods such as automobiles, agricultural machinery, and washing machines all anticipate a challenging business environment for the remaining time this year as consumer demand in the USA slows down, and have begun to lay off employees and reduce production.
Trump claims that a strong US dollar has severely damaged American manufacturing, but Yellen responded that interest rates are determined by the market.
According to former US President Trump, a strong US dollar is devastating for American manufacturing, but for US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, things are not that simple.
Brokerage research: What impact will the change of US presidency have on the structure of US stocks?
Xingye Securities released research reports stating that recent Trump's shooting events have increased his chances of being elected.