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It's not just about interest rate cuts, Wall Street also expects the Fed to stop shrinking its balance sheet.
In the face of the complex economic situation in the USA, it is worth paying attention to how much pressure the balance sheet of the Federal Reserve can bear as it shrinks, and the upcoming interest rate cuts may also have a reverse effect on reducing the balance sheet.
Citi: Don't panic about the sharp decline in chip stocks, now is a good time to buy.
Citibank pointed out that although there has been a sharp decline in US chip stocks, this is mainly due to macroeconomic factors and high expectations. Semiconductors markets are still bullish, mainly because the demand for AI and storage markets remains strong. It is expected that DRAM prices will increase by 62% YoY in 2024, and Micron's performance guidance may be revised upward.
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Will the financial market welcome a "heavy bullish"? The Federal Reserve may end this round of asset reduction by the end of this year.
Since June 2022, the Federal Reserve began implementing quantitative tightening policy, known as shrinking its balance sheet (QT); some Wall Street strategists have said that even though the pace of the balance sheet reduction has slowed recently, it is unlikely that a sudden announcement to end the balance sheet reduction will be made.
Morgan Stanley: The lack of "urgency" by the Fed will lead to more risks for the US stock market.
Dubravko Lakos-Bujas, JPMorgan's new head of market strategy, wrote in his first report that the recent collapse of the US stock market has dissipated some of the bubbles in the market, but if economic growth continues to slow down and the Fed does not show urgency in monetary easing, then holding positions and valuations still face risks.
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8/9 [Strength material]
[Bullish and Bearish Materials] Dow Jones Industrial Average rose (+683.04) to 39446.49, Nasdaq Composite Index rose (+464.22) to 16660.02, 1 dollar = 147.20-30 yen, Chicago Nikkei Futures rose (35575, +795 compared to Osaka), SOX Index rose (+303.74) to 4730.01, VIX Index decreased (-4.06) to 23.79, US crude oil futures rose (+0.96) to 76.19, expectations of subdued inflation in the US, active share buybacks.