Facing the impact of election day: the usa stock, bond, and currency markets are entering a 'battle state'!
①As the polls continue to show intense competition in the usa presidential election, on the first trading day of the "super week" entering the election and the Fed interest rate decision, US stocks, the US dollar, and US Treasury yields have all fallen; ②At the same time, traders in various cross-asset fields have already entered the final preparation mode before election day...
Traders are withdrawing from the "Trump trade" and are no longer betting on expectations of rising inflation.
On Monday, usa Vice President Harris received the final support of voters in key states, while participants in the bonds market have withdrawn from the 'Trump trade' and are no longer betting on rising inflation expectations.
No matter who becomes president, goldman sachs trading department: regardless of the outcome, CTA will sell stocks this week.
Last week, CTA has already sold $8 billion worth of global equity. goldman sachs trading department predicts that in the market's decline, the E-mini s&p 500 index will experience an outflow of $11.2 billion, and will have an outflow of $0.94 billion in the case of an increase.
How to trade after the election? When trading U.S. stocks, you need to pay attention to U.S. bonds.
Wall Street strategists generally believe that the yield on US Treasury bonds will determine the trend of the US stock market after the US election. If Trump wins and the Republicans sweep Congress, it is expected that the 10-year US Treasury bond yield will experience limited fluctuations, bullish for the stock market; if Harris wins and Congress is divided, consumer stocks and wind power stocks affected by tariffs may benefit in the short term.
U.S. Election, Central Bank Decisions Likely to Keep Bond Markets Volatilie This Week -- Market Talk
Corporate Bond Issuance Surges in 2024, on Track to Hit $1.5T in 2025 - Goldman Sachs
