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ProShares UltraPro Short S&P500 ETF Newsroom
Be careful of a significant pullback in the U.S. stock market! Goldman Sachs sounds the alarm for 2025: three major risks loom.
Goldman Sachs warned on Thursday that U.S. stocks will face a series of risks in 2025, which increase the likelihood of a significant market correction at some point this year; The three main risks are: a sharp rise in U.S. stocks in 2024, overly high U.S. stock valuations, and high or increased market concentration risk within the investment portfolio.
Goldman Sachs strategists warn: The pricing of U.S. stocks is at a "perfect level" and is likely to experience a pullback.
Goldman Sachs' Chief Global Equity Strategist Peter Oppenheimer warned that as investors digest the uncertainty surrounding rising Bond yields, overvaluations, and further interest rate cuts, the current "perfect" earnings market environment may be difficult to sustain.
Quietly, the Federal Reserve has given more attention to this "new" inflation Indicators.
Including Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, senior officials of the Federal Reserve are increasingly focusing on a lesser-known inflation Index—the market-based version of the Personal Consumer Expenditure Price Index, which excludes a range of service industry data that its collectors cannot measure directly and must estimate. Currently, this Index is closer to the Federal Reserve's 2% inflation target, potentially indicating that the threshold for further interest rate cuts is lower than the market anticipates.
Trump's Day 1: Incoming President Looks Set to Act on Tariffs, Crypto, Energy and Immigration
Quantum computing, Nuclear Power, Cryptos, cannabis! Retail investors' "beloved" in the USA all fell last night.
① Although the three major stock indices in the USA fluctuated on Wednesday, the S&P 500 Index, which performed the worst, only fell by 0.16%—a performance that cannot be considered terrible. ② However, for many American retail investors who enjoy the thrill of speculating on meme Stocks, this Wednesday seems to have been a disastrous day: because many of their favorite investment symbols experienced a remarkable collapse.
Options Market Statistics: IonQ Stock Plunges After Nvidia CEO Sees 'Useful' Quantum Is Decades Away; Options Pop
The Global bond market is experiencing a frantic sell-off, with US Treasury yields quickly approaching 5%.
The 20-year US Treasury yield has already broken through 5%, while the UK 10-Year Treasury Notes Yield has also risen to 4.82%, reaching a new high since 2008. Inflation worries have prompted traders to lower their expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England this year, and at the same time, the market is weighing the impact of President Trump's policies.
The last time the US bonds dropped like this, the US stock market also crashed.
Recently, the rise of the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is similar to the situation in 2022 and 2023, when the stock market experienced a substantial decline. Goldman Sachs stated that although the U.S. stock market is relatively stable now, the correlation between stock and bond yields has turned negative. If economic data falls short of expectations, the risk of a market correction in the short term may increase.
U.S. stock market close: the three major indexes varied in performance; Huang Renxun's remarks caused a collapse in the Quantum Computing Sector.
① The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index fell by 0.67%, with most China Concept Stocks declining; ② Wildfires ravaged California, and Electrical Utilities provider Edison International fell by 10%; ③ Jensen Huang stated that a "very useful" quantum computer may take several decades to arrive; ④ Intel: will continue to focus on the independent graphics card market.
Federal Reserve meeting minutes: Officials tend to slow the pace of interest rate cuts as inflationary risks increase.
The minutes from the Federal Reserve's December meeting show that officials decided to slow the pace of interest rate cuts in the coming months due to high inflation risks; participants expect inflation to continue approaching 2%, but it may take longer than expected, and the process of returning inflation to target may have temporarily stalled; regarding interest rate cuts, officials emphasized that future policy actions will depend on the development of data rather than a fixed timetable.
Oak Tree Capital's Marks: New things are prone to bubbles, currently private equity buying S&P 500, with a 10-year yield of only ±2%.
Max recently released a memorandum titled "Revisiting the Bubble," stating that investors are currently betting on the leading high-tech companies to maintain their dominance. However, he believes that it is not easy to stay ahead, as new technologies and competitors can surpass existing market leaders at any time. When people assume that "things can only get better" and Buy based on that, the impact of negative news can be particularly severe. He specifically pointed out the frenzy over AI and how this positive sentiment may spread to other Technology sectors.
Howard Marks on Bubble Watch: Stock Valuations High but Not Nutty
December ADP US Private Payrolls Rise Less Than Expected Ahead of Friday's BLS Data
US Morning News Call | Nvidia CEO's Remarks Trigger Pre-Market Plunge in Quantum Stocks
Express News | Trump Considering National Economic Emergency
Even the Federal Reserve has issued a rare warning! Understand in one article: How expensive are U.S. stocks right now?
① This Monday, the rare warning from Federal Reserve Governor Cook regarding the "overvaluation of the U.S. stock market" has garnered widespread attention on Wall Street; ② This clearly raises curiosity: from the perspective of the valuation models commonly used by the Federal Reserve, how expensive is the U.S. stock market right now?
The Federal Reserve's hawkish expectations are rising, and inflation and the rate hike trajectory are back in focus!
The ISM Services Index and job vacancies in the USA exceeded expectations, showing resilience in the economy and the labor market, driving the dollar stronger and US bond yields higher. Inflation data from Europe and the Swiss Franc indicates a slowing trend, while the labor market in the Eurozone remains robust. The Global market is sensitive to expectations regarding US policy, with significant impacts on the bond and Forex markets.
Howard Marks: Is there a bubble in the U.S. stock market now?
Max believes that the U.S. stock market may have some bubbles, but it is not out of control. The expected PE for the S&P 500 Index is 23.6 times, and compared to valuation parameters, a more effective way to determine bubbles is through psychological diagnosis. Currently, there is no talk from people saying 'there are no prices that are unreachable,' which is a clear indicator of irrational thinking and a sign of bubbles.
Wall Street's New Year interest rate "gamble": from several rate cuts, it has changed to whether rates will remain unchanged or not...
On Tuesday, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, known as the "anchor of Global asset pricing," further reached its highest level in eight months; the betting game surrounding the Federal Reserve's interest rate direction seems to have completely shifted from several rate cuts this year to whether further cuts will actually happen...
Options Market Statistics: Jensen Huang's Major Product Presentation Failed to Lift Nvidia Shares; Options Pop