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This Fed-based Market Signal Is Flashing a Warning for the First Time in Over a Decade. Here's Why It Matters.
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As US bond yields soar, how much longer can the US stock market party last?
Currently, there are no signs of a bear market in the US stock market, but the surging yields on US Treasury bonds may become a turning point for the situation. Bank of America Merrill Lynch states that when the 10-year US Treasury yield exceeds 5%, investors tend to shift from the stock market to the bond market, limiting the rise of US stocks. This yield has climbed by 80 basis points since mid-September, although the bank indicates that the current interest rate risk is manageable.
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With Trump's inauguration approaching in January, Bank of America Merrill Lynch advises investors to adjust their portfolios: focusing on U.S. bonds, Central and Eastern European stock markets, and gold.
Bank of America advises investors to adjust their portfolios before Trump's inauguration in January, focusing on US Treasury bonds, China and Europe stock markets, and gold.
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"Trump trade" remains popular, but how much longer can it last.
Stocks, bonds, and other assets are already expensive relative to historical levels. Trump's trade protectionism policy may lead to a resurgence of inflation and force the Federal Reserve to maintain interest rates at high levels for a longer period of time. In addition, the US economy is facing continuously expanding fiscal deficits and a labor market that is already showing signs of fatigue, which could put pressure on the economic growth outlook.
Trump Rally Fades As Investors Await Powell's Remarks, Bitcoin Drops Below $90,000: What's Driving Markets Thursday?
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