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Morgan Stanley: The results of the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting and forward guidance are more hawkish than expected.
According to the committee's median, it is currently only expected that there will be two rate cuts in 2025, two rate cuts in 2026, and one rate cut in 2027.
Pryce: It is expected that medium to long-term USA treasury yields will rise, and the yield curve will become steeper.
With the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts setting a lower limit for short-term yields, it is still expected that medium- and long-term Treasury yields will rise, leading to a steeper yield curve.
Huachuang Securities: The Federal Reserve signals a pause in interest rate cuts, Emerging Markets MMF and CSI Commodity Equity Index have room for further decline.
In the December interest rate meeting, the Federal Reserve announced a rate cut of 25 basis points, and the overnight reverse repo rate was lowered by 5 basis points. The latest dot plot indicates that the Federal Reserve may cut rates twice in 2025.
Wall Street collapsed overnight! What kind of "poison" did the Federal Reserve unleash on the market?
① Apart from the US dollar, everything in sight—US stocks, US bonds, Gold, and Bitcoin all plummeted yesterday; ② This "indiscriminate" sell-off in the market reflects investors' extreme fear of the Federal Reserve's decision last night.
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The Federal Reserve's "expectations management" severely impacts rate cut expectations, with US Treasury yields and the dollar entering a "bull run mode."
The Federal Reserve gives traders reason to expect only one rate cut in 2025, yields on U.S. Treasury bonds soar violently across all maturities, and the USD rises to its highest point since 2022.
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Is the market too conservative? Bond traders expect the Fed to cut rates four times in 2025.
In terms of interest rate Options, some traders bet that the market's view is too hawkish, and the Federal Reserve will be closer to its September forecast: four rate cuts in 2025, each by 25 basis points, which would bring the implied federal funds target rate down to 3.375%. Some analysts believe that if Powell adopts a hawkish tone during the press conference, the rise in Bonds yields may be disrupted.
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Short-End Expected to Drive U.S. Treasury Yield Curve Steepening in 2025 -- Market Talk