Before Thanksgiving, the usa market will face two major tests: key inflation indicators and the Federal Reserve's November minutes.
① With Thanksgiving approaching, this week the american financial market is set to have a short trade week: the US stock market and US bonds will be closed all day on Thursday; on Friday, they will close early. ② However, from the news perspective, this short trade week may still not be calm: the minutes from the Federal Reserve's November meeting and the Federal Reserve's most favored inflation indicator, the PCE price index, will be released on local time on Tuesday and Wednesday.
US Consumer Sentiment Rises, Highlights Post-Election Partisan Shift
Dollar Declines As Trump's Treasury Pick Eases Market Concerns
After Janet Yellen was nominated as the US Treasury Secretary, the rise of the US dollar paused, and the US dollar index fell below 107.
The US dollar weakened against the currencies of the G10 countries.
US Dollar Falls as Treasury Pick Tempers Trump Bets
October's PCE in the usa is expected to show persistent inflation, which may reinforce the Federal Reserve's strategy to slow down the easing.
This inflation data favored by the Federal Reserve is believed to show persistent price pressures and will reinforce the Fed's cautious attitude toward future interest rate cuts.
Dollar's Year-End Strength to Give Way to Murky 2025
Dollar's Sizzling Rally Cools as Bessent Nominated for Treasury
Inflation Won't Hit Fed's Target in 2025. Rates Will Still Drop. -- Barron's
Fed's Williams Sees Inflation Cooling Further -- Barron's
Wall Street is closely watching Trump's potential tariff policy, which could "completely change the market landscape."
The usa stock market is performing strongly, but the incoming President Trump may introduce inflationary tariff policies.
The possibility of US inflation dropping to 2% next year is very small, but the Federal Reserve may still insist on a rate cut path.
The likelihood of US inflation falling to the Federal Reserve's annual target of 2% in 2025 is small, but this is unlikely to change the current interest rate cut path of the Federal Reserve.
The US election is settled, consumer confidence is lower than expected, long-term inflation expectations exceed the range's upper limit.
In November, the final value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in the usa was 71.8, although it remains the highest level since April this year, it is significantly lower than the expected 73.9, with an initial value of 73 before the election results were announced. Short-term inflation expectations hit the lowest level since 2020, but long-term inflation expectations reached 3.2%, showing signs of easing once again.
Desjardins Maintains Call For 25 Basis Point Cut In December After Retails Sales Update
USD/CAD Turns Upside Down on Steady Canadian Retail Sales Growth, US Dollar Retraces
Canada September Retail Sales Rise as Expected; Advance October Estimate Sees Bigger Gain
USD/CAD: CAD Softer but Outperforms Most Peers – Scotiabank
USD Surges on Weak European Data – Scotiabank
USD: Moderately Hawkish Remarks From Williams – ING
The forex market bets on the resurgence of "volatile trading". Did the dollar enter a "frenzy state" after Trump took office?
Hedge funds have begun to purchase options that can profit from increased forex volatility; traders expect a policy divergence between the usa and europe.