Sister Mu issued another warning: the USA economy will fall into recession within one or two quarters!
① The investor known as "Wood" warns that due to Americans increasing savings rather than spending, the USA economy may continue to experience negative growth in the next one or two quarters; ② Wood believes that the economic downturn will prompt the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates and provide an opportunity for the Trump administration's tax reduction policies; ③ She also anticipates that the USA's economic downturn will give the Federal Reserve greater room for rate cuts, likely exceeding market expectations.
Is the market currently exaggerating expectations of a recession in the USA?
Morgan Stanley believes that investors' panic over a USA economic recession is likely exaggerated, and the real economic slowdown has yet to fully manifest. There is still significant uncertainty (such as immigration policy) that has not materialized, and investors should focus on hard data, especially non-farm payroll data.
Zhitong Special Supply | Morgan Stanley Federal Reserve FOMC Meeting Summary: Seeking a balance between inflation and growth risks.
Morgan Stanley maintains a "long position on U.S. bonds" recommendation, believing that interest rates will continue to decline in the medium term. The dollar is under short-term pressure, and policy uncertainty will continue to dominate market fluctuations.
There are numerous uncertainties during Trump's term! European officials are weighing whether they can still rely on the Federal Reserve to provide dollars.
① Officials from the European Central Bank and regulatory authorities have questioned the Federal Reserve's ability to provide dollar financing when the market is under pressure and are considering seeking alternative Institutions; ② Officials discussed the possibility of the US government pressuring the Federal Reserve to suspend the concept of dollar guarantees, although they believe the probability of the Federal Reserve not providing funding support is extremely low.
Stocks Poised for Higher Open -- Barrons.com
Cathie Wood Says the US Is in a 'Rolling Recession' as Money Velocity Collapses, but That Will Help Unlock Fed Rate Cuts and Lower Taxes
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