Market Uncertainty Spikes as the VIX Pops to Its Highest Level Since March 2023
Wall Street's Volatility Gauge Hits Highest Level Since Mid-April
"Bond King" Gross: Value will win over growth in the long term unless AI can create a new era of productivity.
Bill Gross says if artificial intelligence-related companies can increase the productivity of the United States from the historical level of 1-2% of the past few decades to 2-3%, growth stocks may significantly outperform value stocks. But he thinks this is still a bet and advises investors to hold both value and growth stocks and not let any one stock dominate.
The demand continues to decline, and the prosperity of the US manufacturing industry is fading.
Producers of durable goods such as automobiles, agricultural machinery, and washing machines all anticipate a challenging business environment for the remaining time this year as consumer demand in the USA slows down, and have begun to lay off employees and reduce production.
Trump claims that a strong US dollar has severely damaged American manufacturing, but Yellen responded that interest rates are determined by the market.
According to former US President Trump, a strong US dollar is devastating for American manufacturing, but for US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, things are not that simple.
Brokerage research: What impact will the change of US presidency have on the structure of US stocks?
Xingye Securities released research reports stating that recent Trump's shooting events have increased his chances of being elected.
US Stocks Suffered a 'Black Wednesday': How to Hedge Risks in Market Turbulence?
Technology stocks encountered a "Black Wednesday", USA's "hard landing" should not be ignored!
Some popular recession indicators are continuously alarming, and the yield curve has been inverted for two years, releasing recession signals of unemployment rate. The market is paying attention to whether the second quarter GDP to be released on Thursday will trigger a red light warning.
US stocks closed with all three major indices falling, with the S&P Nasdaq index seeing its largest weekly decline in three months. Technology stocks weakened, with Tesla down more than 4%, Nvidia down more than 2%, and CrowdStrike down more than 11%.
Investors accelerated their escape from technology stocks, with stocks and bonds in Europe and the United States being hit hard for two days. This week, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq fell by about 2% and 3.7%, respectively. The Nasdaq stopped its six-week continuous rise, while the Dow and small-cap indices rose by 0.7% and 1.7%, respectively. Chip stocks fell more than 3% on Friday and nearly 9% for the week. Nvidia also fell more than 8.7% for the past three months, making it the worst performer. The "seven sisters of technology" all fell for the week, and cybersecurity leader Crowdstrike, which triggered a global technology outage, fell 11% on Friday, the worst in nearly two years. The VIX panic index rose more than 32% for the week.
Two officials of the Federal Reserve indicated that it is necessary to reform the discount window tool.
Boorman, a director of the Federal Reserve, and Logan, the president of the Dallas Federal Reserve, suggested that the Federal Reserve should assess to what extent its emergency lending tools can meet the liquidity needs of the banking system, implying the need to reform the discount window.
Uncertainty Sets in With Traders as the VIX Pops to Its Highest Level in 6 Weeks
Fed's First Rate Cut Will Most Likely Come in September - SA Sentiment Survey
How do high officials of the Federal Reserve view the significant cooling of inflation in the USA?
Two senior officials from the Federal Reserve spoke on Thursday, stating that inflation is making progress. The president of the St. Louis Reserve stated that the current policy interest rate is appropriate at this stage. The president of the San Francisco Reserve stated that given recent employment and inflation data, the Federal Reserve may need to make interest rate adjustments, but did not provide a specific schedule for rate cuts.
"Xinmei Federal Reserve News Agency" evaluates CPI in June: Mild inflation opens the door for a rate cut in September.
According to Timiraos' article, after the release of CPI, investors have increased the possibility of rate cuts in September, November, and December this year. A major question at this month's Fed meeting is how much basis Fed officials have laid for a rate cut in September. This year's FOMC voter, President of the San Francisco Fed, Daly, expects that it may be reasonable to cut interest rates soon after the announcement of the CPI, but also said that more information needs to be collected.
No longer a case of "The Boy Who Cried Wolf"? The New York Federal Reserve comments that this time, "Powell Pivot" will be more sustainable than at the end of last year.
Nowadays, the threshold for Fed rate cuts is lower than in previous months and the situation has changed. Powell believes that inflation is returning to normal and the labor market is clearly weakening, further weakness is unnecessary and unwanted.
Yellen and Powell agree: the US labor market is weakening the push for inflation, and inflation pressures may continue to ease.
The current labor market is no longer the primary factor driving inflation in the US economy, as it was in the early stages of the pandemic recovery.
From "to cut or not to cut interest rates" to "who will be elected", predicting this business has become popular!
From new movie reviews to key economic data, from Federal Reserve rate cuts to US elections... Predicting markets is quietly rising.
The US Federal Reserve has been slow to cut interest rates, and the size of the US money market has surpassed 6.15 trillion US dollars, reaching a new high.
In the week ending on the 2nd, there was a inflow of approximately $51.2 billion into the US fund market, the largest inflow in three months. Some analysts pointed out that as long as the Federal Reserve continues to hold steady, funds will continue to flow into currency funds.
The US election has stirred up the market! The speculation around Biden's withdrawal continues to ferment, and Wall Street turns to 'Trump's trade'.
Traders are adjusting their positions.
Is the US labor market showing signs of losing momentum? Investors are closely watching two key reports this week.
The hot labor market has always been a key obstacle preventing the Fed from cutting interest rates.