JPMorgan: How to adjust your portfolios to different scenarios?
There are three scenarios that can be considered in the current economic atmosphere: the bull case, the bear case, and the base case. Different portfolios can be constructed accordingly to achieve desirable returns while limiting risk exposure. Here are some investment suggestions JPMorgan has outlined for those three cases.
Bull Case
A mix of cyclicals and commodities would be included among the overweights. Consider such as $Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLF.US)$, $Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLI.US)$ as the mix of longs, which represent financial and industrial sectors respectively. Hedges could include defensive ETFs like $The Health Care Select Sector SPDR® Fund (XLV.US)$ and $Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLU.US)$, targeting health care and utilities sectors.
Financial and industrial sectors are two of the best beneficiaries of economic booms, and defensive sectors can withstand market slips pretty well.
Base Case
Using a balanced strategy with longs in Tech and commodity-related sectors to enjoy the development of economy. For example, investors can utilize a mixed ETFs of $Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ.US)$, $iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV.US)$, $VanEck Oil Services ETF (OIH.US)$, $United States Oil Fund LP (USO.US)$, and $SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF (XME.US)$, to express the long view. QQQ and IGV track tech companies embodying high growth potential.
OIH, USO and XME follow commodities such as oil and metals. Against this portfolio, consider $Ishares Iboxx $ Investment Grade Corporate Bond Etf (LQD.US)$, which constitutes excellent corporate bonds with low risks and returns, and short-selling $SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY.US)$ as primary hedges. A market-neutral strategy that takes tactical advantage of bull and bear runs may be perferred.
Bear Case
Secular Growth and Defensives may outperform in this environment. Secular companies show long-term growth ignoring economic recessions such as FAANG and clean energy companies. So consider longs in Tech, Pharma, Staples, and Utilities. Hedges should be constructed by having a short position in SPY and QQQ. Cyclicals likely underperform in this environment so could consider things such as XLI and XLF as shorts. $Meta Platforms (FB.US)$ $Amazon (AMZN.US)$ $Apple (AAPL.US)$ $Netflix (NFLX.US)$ $Alphabet-A (GOOGL.US)$
JPMorgan's View
Analysts from JPMorgan predict the market to go through a base case scenario, as some assume that a resolution to the Ukrainian War will materialize sooner rather than later. Then the supply snarls will ease to bring down prices of commodities, worries about high inflation will dissipate in turn and the market will return back on an even keel. Therefore, allocating capital to high-growth techs like QQQ and shorting SPY should be reckoned with.
Disclaimer: Investing involves risk and the potential to lose principal. Past performance does not guarantee future results. This is for information and illustrative purposes only. It should not be relied on as advice or recommendations.
Source: JPMorgan's notes
Disclaimer: Moomoo Technologies Inc. is providing this content for information and educational use only.
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71360646 : Great Tips!
I’m using this information right away!!!
You can’t Win! If You ain’t “In!” THE MARKET
RDK79 : PRETTY LURING HEADLINE. DON’T TRUST THEM. They froze my brokerage account a few months ago without telling me in advance because they didn’t like how I adjusted my portfolio as it didn’t meet their stock standards (which were never told to me) and didn’t free up my account to make buys until I spoke with them on the phone and reevaluated the ‘labels’ they had previously stuck to my (their) ‘settings’. What a great brokerage… NOT
103894820 : Frozen without warning? what have you done?