It is calculated by discrete-time Markov chain and Markov transition probability matrix that once the Tesla stock price rises to 414.70, an exponential bounce curve trajectory will appear.
The all-out all-defensive delicate egoist and so-called Day Trader have mostly sold off or hold only a small amount of chips. In the spectacular epic uptrend market, the primary and secondary trends, short-term trends, and medium to long-term trends are indistinguishable. Superficial knowledge, even lacking any knowledge, but adept in scheming, acting recklessly and arbitrarily, with a presumption of inevitable results.
Tesla announced that it will launch the Model Q in the first half of next year, with a price lower than 0.03 million US dollars after North American subsidies.
On December 8, according to foreign media GuruFocus News, during an investor meeting hosted by Deutsche Bank, Tesla's investor relations manager Travis Axelrod revealed that Tesla plans to introduce an entry-level model called "Model Q" in the first half of next year, with a price lower than 0.03 million US dollars after North American subsidies (Note by IT Home: currently around 0.218 million yuan).
Tesla further stated that its goal is to expand its market in china by launching more models, including the three-row long wheelbase Model Y, and achieve a sales revenue growth of 20-30% by 2025.
Model Q, internally referred to as 'Redwood,' is approximately 3988 millimeters in length, 15% smaller than Model 3 and about 30% lighter. The new car will use lithium iron phosphate batteries with capacities of 53kWh and 75kWh, offering single electric motor and dual electric motor options, with EPA range of up to 500 kilometers.
Model Q, internally referred to as 'Redwood,' is approximately 3988 millimeters in length, 15% smaller than Model 3 and about 30% lighter. The new car will use lithium iron phosphate batteries with capacities of 53kWh and 75kWh, offering single electric motor and dual electric motor options, with EPA range of up to 500 kilometers.
Tesla investor meeting: new car models will be launched in the first half of next year, with a target of 20-30% sales growth for the whole year. The computing power will greatly improve FSD, and there is no competitor in automatic driving in Europe and America.
Tesla once again emphasized that the sales growth target for 2025 is 20-30%, this growth is based on the ability to maximize the utilization of existing production capacity. The significant improvement in FSD over the past year is attributed to the increase in training computing power, from 20,000 GPUs to approximately 90,000 GPUs in just 10 months.
Recently, as part of the deutsche bank autonomous driving day, Deutsche Bank held an investor meeting with Tesla's investor relations representative Travis Axelrod.
The focus of the meeting is on fully automatic driving (FSD), robotaxis, and Optimus, while also discussing the status of new car models in 2025 and the positive and negative impacts on profit margins. $Tesla (TSLA.US)$ The meeting focused on fully automatic driving (FSD), robotaxis, and Optimus, while also discussing the status of new car models in 2025 and the positive and negative impacts on profit margins.
Following the meeting, Deutsche Bank raised Tesla's target stock price from $295 to $370, mainly reflecting a higher valuation for Tesla's autonomous driving efforts. Since the beginning of the year, Tesla's stock price has risen by 57%.
The focus of the meeting is on fully automatic driving (FSD), robotaxis, and Optimus, while also discussing the status of new car models in 2025 and the positive and negative impacts on profit margins. $Tesla (TSLA.US)$ The meeting focused on fully automatic driving (FSD), robotaxis, and Optimus, while also discussing the status of new car models in 2025 and the positive and negative impacts on profit margins.
Following the meeting, Deutsche Bank raised Tesla's target stock price from $295 to $370, mainly reflecting a higher valuation for Tesla's autonomous driving efforts. Since the beginning of the year, Tesla's stock price has risen by 57%.
Deutsche Bank summarized the key points of this investor meeting in the report:
Introduce new vehicle models in the first half of next year, with a full-year sales growth target of 20-30%.
New Car Model Release Plan: Tesla plans to launch a new model called 'Model Q' in the first half of 2025, with a subsidized price lower than 0.03 million US dollars, i.e. if the US electric vehicle tax exemption policy is canceled, the price will be 37,499 US dollars. In the second half of 2025, Tesla also plans to launch other new models to expand its potential market size. It is speculated that one of them may be a long-wheelbase Model Y variant introduced in China.
Capacity expansion: All these new car models will be manufactured on existing production lines. Tesla once again emphasizes that the sales growth target for 2025 is 20-30%, and this growth range is based on the ability to maximize the utilization of existing production capacity.
Supply chain and capacity: Tesla states that achieving the high end of the growth range essentially requires flawless execution, and expresses confidence in the rapid expansion capability of the supply chain in the Chinese market, which may be more challenging in North America.
Mexico Factory Plan: Tesla's factory plans in Mexico will continue to depend on geopolitical dynamics and tariff situations under the new Trump administration.
The launch of new products will disrupt profitability.
Product launches and profit margin: Tesla explains that 2025 will be a year of product launches, and whenever this happens, due to the early stage of product development, the absorption efficiency of fixed costs is low, which will disrupt profitability.
Cost reduction: however, this impact may be offset by the reduction in commodity sales costs brought by more affordable products.
Demand curve and profit margin: The profit margin in 2025 will also depend on the average selling price (ASP) determined based on the demand curve.
Growth target: The main goal is to focus on increasing sales volume and additional gross profit, rather than targeting a specific gross margin percentage, at least achieving overall free cash flow (FCF) balance.
Launch of autonomous taxi operations next year.
Autonomous taxi service: Tesla still expects to launch autonomous taxi services in California and Texas next year using existing vehicles (Model 3/Y), providing paid ride-sharing services.
User interface and value chain: In terms of user interface, the company plans to use internally developed ride-hailing applications and control the "value chain".
Regulatory challenges: Tesla believes that regulation is the biggest obstacle to the widespread deployment of autonomous taxis, and the company hopes to adjust through updates to federal-level rules.
Fleet adjustment: Management intends to initially fully utilize the company's own fleet, and eventually dynamically adjust supply based on customer demand/traffic patterns.
Introduce new vehicle models in the first half of next year, with a full-year sales growth target of 20-30%.
New Car Model Release Plan: Tesla plans to launch a new model called 'Model Q' in the first half of 2025, with a subsidized price lower than 0.03 million US dollars, i.e. if the US electric vehicle tax exemption policy is canceled, the price will be 37,499 US dollars. In the second half of 2025, Tesla also plans to launch other new models to expand its potential market size. It is speculated that one of them may be a long-wheelbase Model Y variant introduced in China.
Capacity expansion: All these new car models will be manufactured on existing production lines. Tesla once again emphasizes that the sales growth target for 2025 is 20-30%, and this growth range is based on the ability to maximize the utilization of existing production capacity.
Supply chain and capacity: Tesla states that achieving the high end of the growth range essentially requires flawless execution, and expresses confidence in the rapid expansion capability of the supply chain in the Chinese market, which may be more challenging in North America.
Mexico Factory Plan: Tesla's factory plans in Mexico will continue to depend on geopolitical dynamics and tariff situations under the new Trump administration.
The launch of new products will disrupt profitability.
Product launches and profit margin: Tesla explains that 2025 will be a year of product launches, and whenever this happens, due to the early stage of product development, the absorption efficiency of fixed costs is low, which will disrupt profitability.
Cost reduction: however, this impact may be offset by the reduction in commodity sales costs brought by more affordable products.
Demand curve and profit margin: The profit margin in 2025 will also depend on the average selling price (ASP) determined based on the demand curve.
Growth target: The main goal is to focus on increasing sales volume and additional gross profit, rather than targeting a specific gross margin percentage, at least achieving overall free cash flow (FCF) balance.
Launch of autonomous taxi operations next year.
Autonomous taxi service: Tesla still expects to launch autonomous taxi services in California and Texas next year using existing vehicles (Model 3/Y), providing paid ride-sharing services.
User interface and value chain: In terms of user interface, the company plans to use internally developed ride-hailing applications and control the "value chain".
Regulatory challenges: Tesla believes that regulation is the biggest obstacle to the widespread deployment of autonomous taxis, and the company hopes to adjust through updates to federal-level rules.
Fleet adjustment: Management intends to initially fully utilize the company's own fleet, and eventually dynamically adjust supply based on customer demand/traffic patterns.
The cost of building a CyberCab is expected to be less than 0.03 million US dollars.
Manufacturing cost: By adopting boxless manufacturing processes, the cost per vehicle is expected to achieve a reduction of about 0.02-0.03 million US dollars under the operating rate, which is not achievable with current traditional manufacturing processes.
CyberCab production: It is expected that when CyberCab starts production in 2026, it will be the first product to use boxless manufacturing, and any subsequent products are also expected to use boxless technology.
Production cost target: The company expects the cost of building a CyberCab to be less than 0.03 million US dollars at full production capacity.
Service and charging facility investment: With the launch of CyberCab in 2026, the company will need to invest in its service/cleaning and charging facilities (for example, installing wireless charging). Texas and California may be the first states to introduce such services as they are close to manufacturing facilities and headquarters.
Computing power drives significant improvements in Full Self-Driving.
FSD Version 13: FSD Version 13 has been released to early users and typically takes 2-3 weeks to be rolled out to a wider audience if no issues are found.
Performance improvement: This version should demonstrate a 3-5 times performance improvement over v12.5 from the perspective of critical intervention miles (approximately once every 10,000 miles).
Unsupervised version of FSD: Management continues to target the release of the unsupervised version of FSD in the second to third quarter of next year, coinciding with the start of autonomous taxi operation.
Training computing power increase: The significant improvements seen in the past year can be attributed to the increase in training computing power, increasing from 20,000 GPUs to approximately 90,000 GPUs in just 10 months.
FSD adoption rate: Tesla's comments indicate that after the release of the V12 version in North America, the adoption rate has increased (exceeding 20%), compared to April of this year, and further increased during the 10/10 event.
No rivals in autonomous driving in Europe and the USA.
USA/Europe competition: Management does not see any real competition in the USA/Europe from a cost/scale perspective.
Waymo and Cruise: In efforts like Waymo and Cruise's purely autonomous taxi services, Tesla believes that they fundamentally rely on using more sensors (such as lidar) to compensate for the deficiencies in rule-based software.
Data generation and scale: Different from Tesla, which has a large customer fleet, Waymo relies on a very small fleet that cannot generate enough data to effectively train large end-to-end models.
Competition in China: In China, Tesla has observed more entities adopting similar end-to-end vision architecture methods.
European regulatory challenges: For Europe, the regulations on autonomous driving pose a challenging background, as drivers must approve the automatic response of the vehicle, which will undermine the purpose of autonomous driving.
Third-generation Dojo chip: The third-generation Dojo chip expected to be launched in 2028 will be another major driving factor, as the first generation cannot compete with Nvidia in terms of cost/performance, and the second generation (2026) still cannot compete in performance (but should achieve cost parity).
Optimus progress: Deploying over 1000 humanoid robots internally in 2026.
Deployment target: The target is to deploy over 1000 humanoid robots internally in the factory by 2026, then to sell to external customers.
Optimus smart development: From a development perspective, the 'smart' aspect of 'Optimus' will continue to improve and should at some point reflect the rapid improvements in FSD over the past year.
Manufacturing goal: The ambitious goal is to reduce the Bill of Materials (BoM) to approximately 0.03 million USD.
Sales strategy: When selling to customers, the strategy may be to sell or lease robots along with hardware and software.
其它
Demand for Megapack: The demand for Megapack is still very strong, and the company is sticking to its expectation of more than 100% growth this year, which means a production of approximately 27 GWh.
Legal litigation: The company believes that the recent court ruling rejecting Musk's compensation plan is erroneous, and will appeal the decision, although there is no response timeline.
Manufacturing cost: By adopting boxless manufacturing processes, the cost per vehicle is expected to achieve a reduction of about 0.02-0.03 million US dollars under the operating rate, which is not achievable with current traditional manufacturing processes.
CyberCab production: It is expected that when CyberCab starts production in 2026, it will be the first product to use boxless manufacturing, and any subsequent products are also expected to use boxless technology.
Production cost target: The company expects the cost of building a CyberCab to be less than 0.03 million US dollars at full production capacity.
Service and charging facility investment: With the launch of CyberCab in 2026, the company will need to invest in its service/cleaning and charging facilities (for example, installing wireless charging). Texas and California may be the first states to introduce such services as they are close to manufacturing facilities and headquarters.
Computing power drives significant improvements in Full Self-Driving.
FSD Version 13: FSD Version 13 has been released to early users and typically takes 2-3 weeks to be rolled out to a wider audience if no issues are found.
Performance improvement: This version should demonstrate a 3-5 times performance improvement over v12.5 from the perspective of critical intervention miles (approximately once every 10,000 miles).
Unsupervised version of FSD: Management continues to target the release of the unsupervised version of FSD in the second to third quarter of next year, coinciding with the start of autonomous taxi operation.
Training computing power increase: The significant improvements seen in the past year can be attributed to the increase in training computing power, increasing from 20,000 GPUs to approximately 90,000 GPUs in just 10 months.
FSD adoption rate: Tesla's comments indicate that after the release of the V12 version in North America, the adoption rate has increased (exceeding 20%), compared to April of this year, and further increased during the 10/10 event.
No rivals in autonomous driving in Europe and the USA.
USA/Europe competition: Management does not see any real competition in the USA/Europe from a cost/scale perspective.
Waymo and Cruise: In efforts like Waymo and Cruise's purely autonomous taxi services, Tesla believes that they fundamentally rely on using more sensors (such as lidar) to compensate for the deficiencies in rule-based software.
Data generation and scale: Different from Tesla, which has a large customer fleet, Waymo relies on a very small fleet that cannot generate enough data to effectively train large end-to-end models.
Competition in China: In China, Tesla has observed more entities adopting similar end-to-end vision architecture methods.
European regulatory challenges: For Europe, the regulations on autonomous driving pose a challenging background, as drivers must approve the automatic response of the vehicle, which will undermine the purpose of autonomous driving.
Third-generation Dojo chip: The third-generation Dojo chip expected to be launched in 2028 will be another major driving factor, as the first generation cannot compete with Nvidia in terms of cost/performance, and the second generation (2026) still cannot compete in performance (but should achieve cost parity).
Optimus progress: Deploying over 1000 humanoid robots internally in 2026.
Deployment target: The target is to deploy over 1000 humanoid robots internally in the factory by 2026, then to sell to external customers.
Optimus smart development: From a development perspective, the 'smart' aspect of 'Optimus' will continue to improve and should at some point reflect the rapid improvements in FSD over the past year.
Manufacturing goal: The ambitious goal is to reduce the Bill of Materials (BoM) to approximately 0.03 million USD.
Sales strategy: When selling to customers, the strategy may be to sell or lease robots along with hardware and software.
其它
Demand for Megapack: The demand for Megapack is still very strong, and the company is sticking to its expectation of more than 100% growth this year, which means a production of approximately 27 GWh.
Legal litigation: The company believes that the recent court ruling rejecting Musk's compensation plan is erroneous, and will appeal the decision, although there is no response timeline.
Disclaimer: Community is offered by Moomoo Technologies Inc. and is for educational purposes only.
Read more
Comment
Sign in to post a comment
成熟投资者：格局，概率，取舍。没有格局必然急功近利。不计概率会把运气当技术。不懂取舍，有所不为，最后必落入陷阱和圈套。
1345Followers
71Following
7509Visitors
Follow