Moo Preview| Before the release of CPI, what is your expectation?
HI，Mooers！![]()
![]()
The CPI and PPI data will be released on the 11th and 12th. Since this will be the last CPI data release before the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting on September 18th, it will directly influence the extent of the rate cut, and its importance needs no further elaboration!![]()
![]()
The insights provided by mooers in the previous discussions and comments on the non-farm payroll employment rates have impressed us deeply.
🔍 Spotlight on the insightful mooers:
Here are those mooers who have a higher expectation for a mild dovish rate cut.
@Sherry922
Here are those mooers who have a higher expectation for a mild dovish rate cut.
@Sherry922
As for the trend of the market this week, I am overall bearish. Everyone has their own choice whether to go short or not, but after the Federal Reserve meeting on September 17, it should return to bullish thinking in stages.
Personally, I lean towards a 25 basis point cut unless absolutely necessary, as a larger cut would only reinforce recession fears.
The Fed is more likely to adopt a "dovish rate cut" of 25 basis points. But for a 50 basis point rate cut to be a realistic possibility, there would have to be a major downside surprise.
The U.S. is currently not in danger of recession, corporate layoffs have not significantly increased due to the economic slowdown, and prices and wages still have some upward pressure, which may limit the magnitude of future Federal Reserve rate cuts.
Also, we got some mooers holding slightly different insights about market trends:
The drop has only started. $SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY.US)$ Closing below 537.45 any day next week gives it a good chance for an additional drop.
I believe that there is a dip opportunity. If you wish to enter into trade, trade with caution and keep an eye out for any golden opportunities in the month of September. There are reasons why the September effects we see a lot of downtrend.
Share your views on the August CPI expectations and the interest rate cut in the discussion area, and let the mooers know what you think!
And as an added incentive: if your comment related with this issue which ignites a vibrant interaction, such as like, reply from others, we'll reward you with 20 points! 🎉
Hurry, the Market Awaits Your Insight!🌟
Disclaimer: This presentation is for information and educational use only and is not a recommendation or endorsement of any particular investment or investment strategy. Before investing, please consult a licensed professional. See this link for more information.
Hurry, the Market Awaits Your Insight!🌟
Disclaimer: This presentation is for information and educational use only and is not a recommendation or endorsement of any particular investment or investment strategy. Before investing, please consult a licensed professional. See this link for more information.
Disclaimer: Moomoo Technologies Inc. is providing this content for information and educational use only.
Read more
Comment
Sign in to post a comment
Moomoo Community Official Account
Bringing you insights, inspiration and the hottest content.
152KFollowers
1202Following
63KVisitors
Follow
噜噜牛 : i tend to agree 25 basis points cut.
Money365D : The CPI would lower this time.
102334963 : All data is illusory, only the interest rate meeting is real.
Mr Willy from philly : Bullish
Philip Sim : wait for cpi to cool down to enter pairs with USD
735919637 102334963 : Well but it's does affect the market regardless. So important from that perspective
RichTraid : agree, series of 25 BP cuts is more likely than 50 BP cut
CNNT : CPI data are very misleading as they can pick and choose what goes into the basket.
Based on our 'own personal basket', we know that inflation is much higher than what is reported in many countries.
If the rate cut is too steep, the stimulated consumption on the discresionary items will increase and create further inflation.
It's a catch-22 when underlying problems are not solved, eg. high military spend, trade war, actual war, wealth gap, poor infrastructure investment, poor human capital management, etc., to name just a few.
In a nutshell, there is a lot of correctional work to be done.
Ockhams Razor : Rate cuts
mean market topping. Generally a bear market follows.
524773 : 25 basis points seemed more likely. better to be conservative for now. a larger cut may give the impression that economy is not doing too well and will affect business sentiment