The sustainability of such an upward angle channel is very poor.
Changing trajectory and reducing the occurrence of upward angles is a high probability event. Unfortunately, people are too eager for success and seek immediate gains.
The question was initially like this: "Why are people afraid of day trading? In the past 7 years, my monthly returns have reached 50-100%."
Is the so-called Elliott Wave Theory used for arbitrage? (In the eyes of applied mathematicians, wave theory is bullshit.)
Really? Have you been earning 50-100% every month for the past 7 years?
Suppose your monthly earnings over the past 7 years have been 50%, with an initial capital of $1000. We also assume that you have not withdrawn any funds from the account.
There are 84 months in 7 years.
1.5^84=6*10^14. Your initial investment would be worth 0.6 billion dollars, exceeding the entire global economy.
Due to certain reasons, I don't trust you.
What is the full-time income of an ordinary independent day trader?
I am a professional stock trader who has witnessed the careers of hundreds of aspiring traders. Do you want to know what happens behind the scenes?
Bad traders - 90-95% of people will lose money and become exhausted.
Lucky traders - among the traders who have made profits in the past three years, half of them have lost money and become exhausted. Even those who have made seven-figure profits.
Great traders - earn $0.15 million. If they earn less, they won't be able to cope with the ups and downs of the year.
Great traders - earn $350,000 - $750,000. In very special years, income can reach $1 million - $4 million.
Outstanding traders - earn $1 million to $3 million. In special years, they can earn $5 million to $20 million.
Fund managers - the only way to earn hundreds of millions or billions of dollars is to be willing to embrace the complexity of clients and employees and have access to other people's money.
Let's take a look at some of Buffett's quotes in the 2010 shareholder letter:
"When leverage works, it magnifies your gains. Your spouse thinks you're brilliant and your neighbors get envious."
"But leverage can be addictive. Once you profit from its miracles, few people will return to more conservative practices."
"But leverage can be addictive. Once you profit from its miracles, few people will return to more conservative practices."
Therefore, Buffett clearly understands the advantages of leverage, but considers its disadvantages to be greater.
Basically, through leverage, you will eventually face the risk of permanent capital loss. The higher the leverage ratio, the greater the possibility of capital loss.
Buffett achieved miracles without leverage through conservative investment methods, and he is one of the richest people in the United States. Therefore, although Buffett understands that leverage can make money quickly, he also knows that the speed of losses is just as fast. It is unlikely that this will happen with conservative investment, so he tells the public not to do it.
Having said that, Buffett himself occasionally uses leverage and has tried various stock options contracts. However, he does so in limited situations and only when the odds are clearly in his favor.
Buffett is a master at understanding investor psychology. He knows that most people cannot do what he can do. Therefore, he tells people to stay away from leverage. This is most meaningful for most people and also beneficial for a more stable economy.
Buffett is not a fool. He benefits from a stable, growing economy. He also benefits from doing the same things as most people, while doing what he wants to do. He can do it, he is Warren Buffett.
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成熟投资者：格局，概率，取舍。没有格局必然急功近利。不计概率会把运气当技术。不懂取舍，有所不为，最后必落入陷阱和圈套。
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