In Musk's political controversy, Tesla may report a slight delivery failure in the third quarter - Mansi explained why this will not harm stocks.
Tesla may release its third-quarter delivery report on Tuesday or Wednesday, and most sellers have an optimistic view on the company's performance exceeding expectations.
What happened: Technology venture capitalist and Deepwater Asset Management managing partner Gene Munster stated in an article on X that he is simulating a slight miss. He won't lose sleep over this. "This should be the head of Tesla's victory, they won't lose the tail," as deliveries should resume growth.
Munster said, The Street currently estimates Tesla's third-quarter deliveries at 465,000 units, a 7% increase year-on-year. The tech investor mentioned that the final figure could be 452,000, slightly below consensus but still achieving a 4% growth.
Munster stated that if Tesla hits the Street's numbers, investors will see it as a double positive. He mentioned, firstly, Tesla may have turned the situation around from a 9% decline in the March quarter and a 5% decline in the June quarter. Secondly, he added that despite CEO Elon Musk's "increase in political speech, which turned away some buyers," Tesla still managed to increase deliveries.
Munster said, without the political speeches, the information would be better.
The tech entrepreneur mentioned that if Tesla misses consensus estimates, as long as delivery volumes grow yearly, investors should be fine. He said, first, this would mark the first recovery of delivery growth this year, and second, most errors could be attributed to Musk's political speeches. He added that these political speeches should ultimately take a step back, or the rate of political rhetoric should decrease, or buyers are just getting used to it.
Munster cited comments from CFO Vaibhav Taneja during the second-quarter earnings call, stating that Tesla is confident in its growth recovery. The analyst pointed out that this executive mentioned that the factors improving growth from March to June should "persist into the September quarter".
Tesla's robot axis will be officially launched on October 10th. Although expectations for this event have been slightly lowered, most analysts are optimistic about the robot taxi service when it finally launches.
Why it matters: One reason for the expected strong performance is Tesla's strength in China. Future Fund LLC Managing Partner Gary Black commented on the strong Tesla insurance vehicle registration data from China, stating that deliveries in the third quarter increased by 18.5% year-on-year in the past 12 weeks, compared to a 19.9% increase in the previous quarter. He added that Tesla still looks set to report its best quarter ever in China.
Sell-side analysts like Barclays' Dan Levy and Wedbush's Daniel Ives are calling for caution compared to expectations, citing China's strength.
In the past week, Tesla's stock price has experienced a good recovery in light of these optimistic forecasts, with anticipation building for the Robotaxi Day on October 10th. Tesla's stock has been in the red for most of the year and turned to profit last week. Sustained upward momentum will depend on delivery numbers, the Robotaxi Day announcement, and the third-quarter earnings report typically released in late October.
According to data from Benzinga Pro, Tesla closed at $260.46 on Friday, up 2.45%. The stock has risen by 4.82% so far this year.
Tesla's Chinese competitor Nio received a $1.9 billion investment from its parent company and strategic investors when entering the mass market.
What happened: Technology venture capitalist and Deepwater Asset Management managing partner Gene Munster stated in an article on X that he is simulating a slight miss. He won't lose sleep over this. "This should be the head of Tesla's victory, they won't lose the tail," as deliveries should resume growth.
Munster said, The Street currently estimates Tesla's third-quarter deliveries at 465,000 units, a 7% increase year-on-year. The tech investor mentioned that the final figure could be 452,000, slightly below consensus but still achieving a 4% growth.
Munster stated that if Tesla hits the Street's numbers, investors will see it as a double positive. He mentioned, firstly, Tesla may have turned the situation around from a 9% decline in the March quarter and a 5% decline in the June quarter. Secondly, he added that despite CEO Elon Musk's "increase in political speech, which turned away some buyers," Tesla still managed to increase deliveries.
Munster said, without the political speeches, the information would be better.
The tech entrepreneur mentioned that if Tesla misses consensus estimates, as long as delivery volumes grow yearly, investors should be fine. He said, first, this would mark the first recovery of delivery growth this year, and second, most errors could be attributed to Musk's political speeches. He added that these political speeches should ultimately take a step back, or the rate of political rhetoric should decrease, or buyers are just getting used to it.
Munster cited comments from CFO Vaibhav Taneja during the second-quarter earnings call, stating that Tesla is confident in its growth recovery. The analyst pointed out that this executive mentioned that the factors improving growth from March to June should "persist into the September quarter".
Tesla's robot axis will be officially launched on October 10th. Although expectations for this event have been slightly lowered, most analysts are optimistic about the robot taxi service when it finally launches.
Why it matters: One reason for the expected strong performance is Tesla's strength in China. Future Fund LLC Managing Partner Gary Black commented on the strong Tesla insurance vehicle registration data from China, stating that deliveries in the third quarter increased by 18.5% year-on-year in the past 12 weeks, compared to a 19.9% increase in the previous quarter. He added that Tesla still looks set to report its best quarter ever in China.
Sell-side analysts like Barclays' Dan Levy and Wedbush's Daniel Ives are calling for caution compared to expectations, citing China's strength.
In the past week, Tesla's stock price has experienced a good recovery in light of these optimistic forecasts, with anticipation building for the Robotaxi Day on October 10th. Tesla's stock has been in the red for most of the year and turned to profit last week. Sustained upward momentum will depend on delivery numbers, the Robotaxi Day announcement, and the third-quarter earnings report typically released in late October.
According to data from Benzinga Pro, Tesla closed at $260.46 on Friday, up 2.45%. The stock has risen by 4.82% so far this year.
Tesla's Chinese competitor Nio received a $1.9 billion investment from its parent company and strategic investors when entering the mass market.
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成熟投资者：格局，概率，取舍。没有格局必然急功近利。不计概率会把运气当技术。不懂取舍，有所不为，最后必落入陷阱和圈套。
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