World famous quote: Sell an electric bike, is the stock worth $300?
FREE, FREEDOM.
Night trading and pre-market quotes: often the prelude to the main trading session (not absolute, sometimes completely opposite), like flares rising in the dark of night and before dawn.
Shorting is not as good as doing chicken, cock crowing, dogs stealing, stealing chickens and touching dogs.
Anti-rebel: Make trouble, fail, make trouble again, fail again, until extinction.
Shorting Tesla for 6 years ended in a disastrous failure: going from shorting a market cap of 30 billion USD to 800 billion USD, left with nothing but one's own behind, not even able to sell it as it's considered foul-smelling and inappropriate.
The mind's thinking has already been soaked, swollen, and diseased by the wrong filth, making it difficult to operate effectively and determine right from wrong. In the end, as adults, one is responsible for all their own investment and trading actions.
Flirtatious and confused:
I started to get in touch with Tesla in 2010, but unfortunately did not treat it as an investment symbol, but only as a general speculative arbitrage symbol.
Even in 2015, not only did I not wake up, but I also naively believed some of Wall Street's words.👄The worst report from an unknown financial institution -- Tesla is worth at most $50, indulging in its speculative and opportunistic nature of arbitrage.
Always thinking only about eating meat and keeping oneself unscathed. Stubborn and rebellious, fickle, picky,
QuantumScape, OXY, Palantir, AAPL, GOOGLE, ASML, NOC, ISRG, GSIT, LMT, ......
It was not until one day reading a book introducing Musk, and then reading the "Bible · New Testament", that I fully realized that only by solving my own understanding issues, cognitive problems, can I reverse the passive situation.
Realizing Tesla's investment value was something that happened after 2017, and it was also a gradual process. After 2020, I simply focused on Tesla. In 2022, seeing the professional evaluation of the nine projects of Elon Musk by the three Nobel Prize winners in Physics that year, I decided to change my style from speculation to a more precise and value-oriented investment approach.
I want to ask the vast earth: how much is a butt worth?
James Steven Chanos (born December 24, 1957) is an American investment manager. He is the President and founder of Kynikos Associates, a New York City-based investment adviser focused on short selling. As an art collector, he has appeared in the BBC Four documentary "The Banker's Guide to Art".
James Steven Chanos was born in 1957 to a Greek immigrant family in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, where they ran a chain of dry cleaning stores. He graduated from Wylie E. Groves High School and received a Bachelor's degree in Economics and Political Science from Yale University in 1980.
Chanos currently resides in Florida. He is a finance lecturer and Bekenstein Fellow at the Yale School of Management, teaching a course on the history of financial fraud. He is a trustee of the Nandigam-Bamford College and the New York Historical Society, and has served as Chairman of the Browning School Board.
In 1982, Chanos began his professional career at Gilford Securities. There, he conducted cash flow analysis and made sell recommendations, leading to the exposure of Baldwin United Bank, which filed for bankruptcy in 1983. Soon after, Chanos was recruited by Deutsche Bank, where he analyzed Michael Milken's junk bonds and Drexel Securities.
After serving as an analyst at multiple companies, Chanos founded Kynikos in 1985 with $16 million, specializing in short selling. One of the key roles he held at Kynikos was shorting Enron.
He described his investment strategy as "in-depth stock research", looking for fundamental flaws in market valuations, overlooked or unreported flaws in a stock's business or market, then taking a large short position and being willing to hold it long-term - which may be in stark contrast to Warren Buffett's famous "fundamentals + long-term holding" investment strategy. Some say his commitment resembles more of whistleblowing than most speculative activities, such as his heavy shorting of Baldwin-United Corporation and Enron.
Throughout the 2010s, Chanos and other short sellers faced a challenging environment during a period of boom in mergers and record stock buybacks. In 2015, The New York Times introduced several short sellers, claiming that Chanos and others were "waiting with bated breath" for the bull market to end. The same profile mentioned that Chanos' Kynikos Associates saw its market cap shrink by over half in the past five years, from $6 billion to $2.5 billion, forcing Chanos to pitch "a new fund that would take long positions portfolio, covering their traditional short positions." According to Institutional Investor, 2020 was a particularly bad year for Chanos and other short sellers, with their firms "not the same as they used to be." The magazine noted that as of the end of 2020, Kynikos' assets were only $0.405 billion, down from $2 billion in 2018.
In November 2023, The Wall Street Journal reported that Chanos would close his hedge fund by the end of the year and return external capital to investors. As of the time of publication, the S&P 500 index had risen nearly 20% year-to-date, with Chanos' noteworthy short position on Tesla increasing by almost 117%.
Enron's bankruptcy.
Chanos famously predicted Enron's bankruptcy before its filing in 2001, becoming known as a short seller since then; he was short on Enron throughout 2001, increasing his short positions as more information surfaced. Kynikos profited from this trade.
The collapse of China's real estate market.
Chanos frequently made statements predicting the collapse of China's real estate market. In January 2010, The New York Times quoted Chanos' prediction that the Chinese economy was on the verge of collapse, a scale equivalent to "Dubai's 1,000 times, or even worse". In April 2010, Chanos asserted on the Charlie Rose show that China was on a "treadmill to hell" and would eventually collapse due to a "world-class" real estate bubble.
The predicted Chinese real estate collapse in 2010 did not materialize, and financial media also questioned his investment wisdom. In December 2017, Bloomberg pointed out in an article that 'Chanos recently made wrong bets on the US stock market and the Chinese stock market.' The Financial Times of the United Kingdom quoted his 'Dubai times 1000' reference in an article in October 2017, as one of the 'terrible predictions' about the Chinese real estate market, but these predictions did not come true, indicating that this topic is 'difficult to understand for foreign investors and experts.' The Economist pointed out in an article about the prosperity of the Chinese real estate market in January 2021 that since Chanos likened Chinese real estate to 'a Dubai on steroids,' house prices doubled, 'enough homes have been built for 0.25 billion people.' According to The Economist, the failure of collapse predictions indicates that the market is 'more complex than described by bubbles.'
The New York Times pointed out in an article in September 2021 about the crisis in the Chinese real estate industry (2020-present): '... American investor Jim Chanos warned that China's overdevelopment in real estate has put it on a 'treadmill to hell,' with bubbles ready to burst at any time. But the bubble did not burst in 2010. It did not burst in 2011, and it has not burst in the past decade - unless it starts to burst this week.'
In an interview in October 2021, Chanos once again predicted that the Chinese real estate market is on the verge of collapse. Chanos said the situation is 'unprecedented.' 'Perhaps like 1989 in Tokyo? But this time it is worse. Worse than Spain in 1906 or Ireland in 1906.'
China's Economy and Stock Market
Since 2009-2010, Chanos has been critical of the Chinese economy, starting with pessimistic predictions for China's real estate market. In September 2009, Chanos stated on CNBC that China's economic miracle was 'increasingly unbelievable' and predicted China would follow the path of the 'former Soviet Union.'
By 2015, Chanos had short positions in Chinese stocks accounting for about one-fifth of Kynikos Global Fund holdings. During the turbulent period of the Chinese stock market in 2015-2016, the Chinese stock market plummeted, and the company profited.
In the late 2010s, Chanos reduced the company's bets on the Chinese stock market. At Schechter Wealth forum event in December 2017, he noted, 'In the past few years... we have reduced our short positions in China and the positions of the global fund to the lowest levels.'
In September 2023, Chanos explained that his company no longer heavily shorted the Chinese market, unlike his approach 10-12 years ago, because the Chinese stock market has been 'basically flat' for 12 years, making shorting less attractive. In September 2023, during an interview with Bloomberg TV, he clarified that his position is not that the Chinese economy is heading into 'perdition,' but that there must be a 'slowing of the growth rate' from an investment-driven model to a consumption or service-driven model, with severe 'speed bumps' appearing.
Caterpillar
In 2013, at the CNBC Institutional Investor Delivering Alpha Conference, Chanos revealed that his company had short sold Caterpillar. Chanos explained that due to the completion of construction in China, Caterpillar was enjoying a 'once-in-a-lifetime' prosperity in infrastructure investments. In 2016, Chanos insisted on CNBC that his company was still short selling Caterpillar. Chanos stated that the 'collapse has not happened' as China's debt and real estate bubble have not burst.
Tesla
Since 2013, Chanos has been bearish on Tesla, but announced his short sell in 2016. From 2015 to 2021, Tesla's stock price has risen by over 2200%. In 2020, Chanos' fund suffered significant losses from shorting Tesla: 'According to the annual ADV document filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, Kynikos' assets under management at the end of 2020 were approximately 0.405 billion USD, down from 0.932 billion USD the previous year.' In an interview in 2020, Chanos claimed he was still shorting Tesla but admitted the massive losses were 'obviously painful'. In an interview in 2023, he claimed he was still shorting Tesla, describing the same unfavorable factors as in the previous years: shrinking profit margins and increased competition.
Luckin Coffee.
In 2020, Chanos followed the advice of Carson Block from Muddy Waters Research to buy and cover his short position in Luckin Coffee Inc. In April 2020, Luckin Coffee disclosed in a securities filing that its COO had falsified about 2.2 billion RMB (0.31 billion USD) in 2019 sales, leading to a 70% drop in the company's stock price. Chanos commented on CNBC, 'How many times will investors lose from these unbelievably great companies? They grow at 40% to 50% annually and engage in all sorts of strange transactions with affiliated companies.'
Wirecard AG
Chanos bought and covered his short position in Wirecard AG. In June 2020, Wirecard AG's auditor EY revealed that the company had lost around 2.1 billion USD, causing the company's stock price to plummet by approximately 96%. Wirecard announced that the 2.1 billion USD (1.9 billion euros) may not exist. Chanos told Bloomberg that he believed 'Wirecard has never been profitable'.
Hertz Corporation
Chanos bought and closed his short position in Hertz Corporation. Before Hertz went bankrupt, Chanos closed his position. When Chanos discussed his closing of the short position in Hertz, he stated that he did not believe the company could survive the next economic downturn.
Beyond Meat
Chanos holds a short position in Beyond Meat. In an article in the Financial Times, Chanos commented: "'Beyond Meat' still has a PE ratio of 10 times. The valuation of this company is still very high. The market PE ratio is 2.5 times, successful consumer companies PE ratio is 4 times." Chanos further commented: "Beyond Meat is no longer a growth company." As of July 2022, the company's stock price has fallen by 54% since IPO, as investors are concerned about increasing pressure on Beyond Meat's profit margins, which was mentioned by CFRA analyst Arun Sundaram in the Financial Times article.
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成熟投资者：格局，概率，取舍。没有格局必然急功近利。不计概率会把运气当技术。不懂取舍，有所不为，最后必落入陷阱和圈套。
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