Today, September 2nd, is a breakout point.
As discussed in yesterday's member video, the upper limit of the range that appeared on August 30 is 38,827 yen.
If today's closing price is above this, the potential for an upward breakout increases.
At the moment, the movement is like a sideways market today, but it is worth paying attention to whether it can go above 38827 at the closing price.
The last upward breakout was on 6/26. After that, it became a skyrocketing market toward the July SQ. Although I think it will be difficult to reproduce this in the current market conditions, caution is needed for the movement to reach 39500 or 40000 by September SQ if it breaks upward.

Today, on the 30th, I would like to talk about the need to pay attention to the significant decline in the US S&P 500, which forms a double top in July.
After the decline of the US Growth Value Index (IVW/IVE) and the divergence, the stock prices have also turned downward. This pattern can be the starting point of a significant decline. When a top was formed on July 11, it developed into a sharp decline after semiconductors collapsed and growth weakened.
The current SP500 still has room to the 25MA, so it is important to be cautious of any pullback to the 25MA.
If this trend continues, Japanese stocks will also face resistance and it will be difficult for them to stay above 38,500 for a long time.

Today, on the 29th, we will see if the downtrend 5MA cross is reflected in the closing price.
As of 9:30 in the morning, the 5MA is near 38,250 yen. If it falls below this level, the 5MA will automatically turn downwards, resulting in a downtrend 5MA cross.
Even though NVDA's earnings did not meet expectations, it did not plummet, holding steady at around 38,000 yen. Depending on the exchange rate, if it becomes a downtrend 5MA cross, it is likely to become a temporary dip.

Today, on the 28th, let's keep an eye on the inversion of the 2-year and 10-year US yields.
Japanese stocks are in a battle of the 5MA, but this is the same as yesterday, so let's look at this before the NVDA yesterday.
Since the end of last week, the yield spread between the 2-year and 10-year bonds has narrowed, and the bond market is moving again towards eliminating the inversion.
The red line in the middle of the chart is a bullish breakout above the white zero line, indicating a reversal of the yield curve.
If there is any negative impact on the stock market due to NVDA's earnings announcement tomorrow, there may be a reversal of the yield curve, a decline in stock prices, and a slowdown in the economy.
Not only NVDA's earnings, but also US interest rates are being closely watched.

Today, the 27th, the battle between the 5MA is important, but let's also keep an eye on the new MACD.
The new MACD has already turned negative, and if it continues to be negative at the closing price, it will be the first time it has turned negative in this return phase.
Furthermore, the 5MA is declining, and if it doesn't break above 38,130 yen, it will be a bearish 5MA cross. However, there may also be buying pressure below 38,000, so whether it will collapse or not will depend on today's developments.

Today's 26th is 5MA.
A chart of the Aroon Oscillator has been shown, but it has fallen more than expected at the beginning of the week, so we first interrupted the 5MA. This is due to the rapid appreciation of the yen this morning.
As of today, the 5MA is still not going downward unless it falls to 37165 yen. However, if things are soft today, it will be a 5MA cross that will fall tomorrow as well. If that happens, it will be an exciting development.

Today 8/23 is the Aroon Oscillator.
The upper limit bar has been exceeded, so the ceiling sign is on right now. This is the second after MACD Mk2.
The 5MA has leveled off at the 37950 level. If it doesn't rise again from here, around 38000 will be the support line.
When 38000 is broken, it becomes a falling 5MA cross, and it is a development that pushes for a moment.
Above is a 75MA 38600 that has been pushed back at the tip.
It's strong in spite of the sharp drop in NY yesterday (NASDAQ in particular). The rest is up to Mr. Ueda...

The 2-market margin balance has been updated, and the status of last week's credit buyback balance is known.
While stocks returned strongly last week, I was expecting to see how far the remaining credit buybacks were resolved, but it was only about 11 million yen resolved.
With this, it has been reduced to 3 trillion853.5 billion yen, but it can also be said that there is still 3.85 trillion yen left.
The credit ratio dropped to 5.9 times due to an increase in credit sales of 123.7 billion yen amid the rise, but the essential part of credit buybacks did not decrease much.
February to March this year is still in the middle of a big rise, and the amount of buying balls piled up around here will soon reach 6 months.
Furthermore, yesterday's Prime Market trading volume was 3.4 trillion yen. There seems to be just as little movement in the front today.
Institutional investors' arbitrage balance is 1 trillion567.1 billion yen. Although it decreased to 1.34 trillion yen last week, it increased by 220 billion yen last week.
There was a 1.1 trillion yen reduction in arbitrage backlogs from where there was no need to worry, but there are still some credit buybacks left.
While overall turnover is declining, if there are still 3.8 trillion yen left over credit purchases, it is above 38200...