Today, on 11/22 (Fri), Mr. Takebe from Okasan Securities was on Radio NIKKEI.
"There are 12,000 contracts of PUT36000 stacked up! Furthermore, PUT35000 has exceeded 9,000 contracts!"He proudly stated this with a smug look, implying that it is currently dropping and may continue to drop.
For those involved in options trading,"This is ridiculous!" "Why are you talking like an amateur?"It's a story, so I'll write a little here.
First, please look here.
I often check, so I was able to post it on X immediately because of such a stupid statement.
As mentioned here, if it's within the major exercise price range of 12,000 shares of Major SQJust a very ordinary levelIt is.
On the contrary, P35000 is.It has not even exceeded 0.01 million sheets yet.It is.
Although the stock price level has risen compared to the past, the impact of a single exercise price has weakened. However, even at a level 3000 to 4000 yen below the November SQ value of 39901 yen, it would not be strange to have about 15000 sheets, a decrease of 8% to 10%.
P33,000 and P32,000 have exceeded 0.01 million contracts, sparking discussions of a crash on YouTube...

Today, the 22nd, is WaveTrend. This is the chart introduced by the Kabu Labo member.
As the green line has not yet broken through the bottom of the red, the bottom reversal is still uncertain, but it is starting to resemble the bottoming out pattern of September.
If the white cloud turns sunny, there will be expectations for a rebound. As of 9:30, it has rebounded to 38,280 yen, but if it can maintain around 38,300 yen, I think it will turn sunny in the first half of next week.

Today, on the 21st, there was talk that 38500 has become the immediate upper limit.
The stock price did not see a major fluctuation following this morning's NVIDIA earnings announcements. In the Japanese market this morning, despite many gainers, there is a decline, with futures leading the sell-off.
The yellow line is the breakout point, and the lower limit of 38540 has become a resistance.
Unable to return to just 25MA, it is a battle around 38,500 resistance, and there may be a further drop to a level of 500 yen above and below 38,000 with 38,000 as the axis. In any case, after breaking 38,000, there is a possibility of bouncing back at 37,750 of the 75MA.

Today's nasdaq advance decline ratio.
As I mentioned at Kaburabo yesterday, the lower histogram shows the nasdaq stock advance decline ratio.
Red represents over 50%, indicating that the number of rising stocks has exceeded the number of falling stocks. While the light blue indicates more falling stocks. A tactical approach is that after light blue lasts for 4 days or more, followed by red, it is likely to form a bottom and reverse upward trend.
Since it turned red yesterday, there is a high possibility of a temporary halt to the decline from here.
However, NVIDIA's financial results will be released in the early hours tomorrow. This time, there are single option positions expecting a movement of over 8% up or down, so a significant movement in either direction is expected. It is advisable to be cautious until the NVIDIA financial results settle.

Today's the 19th, it's the ANN line.
NY was almost flat last night, but it's quite stable in Japan time. Considering the stability of the exchange rate, there is a sense of security with a decent rebound.
However, both the ANN line and the Dow Inc theory line have turned bearish, with the ANN line now around 38,860 yen, and the 25MA also at 38,870 in the same position.
I see the current situation as a rebound sell market so I am still waiting for the upper wick without entering a long position. However, NVIDIA's earnings will be announced early on the 21st, so I think it's a situation where it's uncertain which way it will bounce again.

Today on the 18th after the US market opens, we were cautious about the continued decline, but it turned around when it became japan time.
Coming above 38290 of the 200MA has brought a sense of relief.
Since breaking above and reclaiming the 200MA on 9/20, it has become support 7 times, and today is the 8th time.
If the 200MA falls below the closing price, a tough situation awaits.
And the first key level for a rebound is the 25MA.
The 25MA is at 38,900 levels, so it's uncertain whether it can return there. Either way, the key is whether it can return to the range of plus or minus 500 from 39,000.

Today will be a battle between the ANN trendline and the 25MA.
ANN turns positive at 39040, and will revive the triangle consolidation above 39100.
With the 25MA at 39000, reclaiming the 39000 level will lead to a short-term consolidation. However, considering the USD/JPY reaching 155.70, even with that, it is a situation where 39000 is just barely holding, so it might be advisable to be cautious about a potential decline if the USD strengthens again.

Today, the 13th is MACD Mk2... more like a battle of the 5MA cross in decline.
At 9:40 in the morning, the 5MA is at 39,370.
Although it started around morning, it dropped about 200 yen after the opening. If it stays at this level, the 5MA cross in decline will be confirmed.
The MACD Mk2 histogram has already turned blue and given a ceiling signal, so it will be a short-term short IN form with the 5MA cross in decline.
Just because it is still a long-term uptrend, the next support will be at 25MA 39,000.