10baggerbamm
:
這個籃子不包括Lowe's,主要面向住房施工,而住房施工與利率期貨下行趨勢有100%的相關性,目前如果您關注10年期國債,那麼您的30年抵押貸款利率也會與之相關。因此,在我們看到10年期出現逆轉時,這個籃子將會上漲,目前大概在470左右,我在過去幾個小時沒有看過它,如果10年期回落到4.20以下,這個可交易ETF將會像火箭船一樣起飛。 在這個投資組合裏的房地產建築商是全球最好的,他們有最出色的管理團隊,多次在過去30到40年的房地產週期中成功管理過。因此,這些不是初創公司,而是最頂尖的公司,但由於人們不願意放棄他們的3%的30年抵押貸款而搬到另一套房子時,他們面臨壓力,因爲他們新的貸款利率可能會是7%或更高。 這就是爲什麼您需要看到10年期利率下降,理想情況下降至3%左右再進行投資。 the home builders that are in this portfolio are the best in the world they have the greatest management they have managed through real estate cycles many a times in the past 30 40 years so these are not startup companies these are the best of the best but they are under pressure because people will not give up their 3% 30 year mortgage to move to another house when their new mortgage is going to be 7% or higher that's why you need to see that 10-year interest rate drop and ideally enter the threes
TWIMO (151403908)
:
I heard and read it wasn’t good back in november and wanted to buy Put options. However, I didn’t know how to execute on duration and how low it could go. Was imagining 10-15% drop but didn’t know if the premium was okay or whether to buy 30 or 60 days…. I would like to get better at this as I reckon there will be such opportunities in 2025… I would like to get better at this as I reckon there will be such opportunities in 2025…
10baggerbamm : 這個籃子不包括Lowe's,主要面向住房施工,而住房施工與利率期貨下行趨勢有100%的相關性,目前如果您關注10年期國債,那麼您的30年抵押貸款利率也會與之相關。因此,在我們看到10年期出現逆轉時,這個籃子將會上漲,目前大概在470左右,我在過去幾個小時沒有看過它,如果10年期回落到4.20以下,這個可交易ETF將會像火箭船一樣起飛。
在這個投資組合裏的房地產建築商是全球最好的,他們有最出色的管理團隊,多次在過去30到40年的房地產週期中成功管理過。因此,這些不是初創公司,而是最頂尖的公司,但由於人們不願意放棄他們的3%的30年抵押貸款而搬到另一套房子時,他們面臨壓力,因爲他們新的貸款利率可能會是7%或更高。
這就是爲什麼您需要看到10年期利率下降,理想情況下降至3%左右再進行投資。
the home builders that are in this portfolio are the best in the world they have the greatest management they have managed through real estate cycles many a times in the past 30 40 years so these are not startup companies these are the best of the best but they are under pressure because people will not give up their 3% 30 year mortgage to move to another house when their new mortgage is going to be 7% or higher
that's why you need to see that 10-year interest rate drop and ideally enter the threes
TWIMO (151403908) : I heard and read it wasn’t good back in november and wanted to buy Put options. However, I didn’t know how to execute on duration and how low it could go. Was imagining 10-15% drop but didn’t know if the premium was okay or whether to buy 30 or 60 days….
I would like to get better at this as I reckon there will be such opportunities in 2025…
I would like to get better at this as I reckon there will be such opportunities in 2025…