Zhitong Hong Kong Stock Short Selling Statistics | February 24.
Hong Kong stock short-selling Statistics | February 24
The 80 billion Market Cap has evaporated in two years, is Tsingtao Brewery unable to keep up?
A deeper reason is the shrinking consumer group.
【Brokerage Focus】BOCOM INTL 2025 Consumer Trend Analysis: Consumer structure further optimized and upgraded.
Jinwu Finance | BOCOM INTL released the 2025 Consumer Trend Analysis. From the beginning of 2025 to now, the consumer market has exhibited new trends different from previous years, with further optimization and upgrading of the consumption structure. 1) The popularity of Sports consumption is rising, especially noticeable in lower-tier markets. Consumers' focus on sports and health continues to increase, and this trend is particularly evident in lower-tier markets. Over 70% of stores located in lower-tier cities, such as 361 DEGREES, achieved double-digit year-on-year sales growth during the Spring Festival, indicating that Sports consumption is rapidly penetrating into lower-tier cities. 2) The combination of traditional culture and modern consumption presents an opportunity for Chinese IP to go Global. Traditional cultural elements...
[Brokerage Focus] CITIC SEC expects that this year's Beer raw material price fluctuations will be smaller than last year.
Jinguo Financial News | CITIC SEC forecasts that the price fluctuations of beer raw materials in 2025 will be smaller than in 2024. Some raw material prices, such as barley and Glass, still have room for decline, but Aluminum prices have shown a rising trend recently, which may offset the cost reduction from the decline in prices of raw materials like barley. Overall, the bank expects that the overall cost of beer will remain stable in 2025, potentially slightly enhancing the profitability of breweries. It is Bullish on breweries achieving stable growth in their performance in 2025, supported by continued stimulus from consumer policies and the recovery of dining scenarios.
Debon Securities: Policies emphasize boosting Consumer and focus on the subsequent demand recovery.
The bank recommends focusing on leading companies in sectors that have strong control over upstream and downstream supply chains, channels, and products amid fundamental changes, as well as sectors where year-round profits are likely to exceed expectations due to cost advantages.
CITIC SEC: It is expected that the raw material costs for Beer will remain relatively stable in 2025. Bullish on the performance of liquor companies stabilizing and growing.
It is expected that the overall cost of Beer will remain stable in 2025, with a slight increase in the profitability of brewing companies anticipated. Bullish about the continued stimulus from consumer policies and the recovery of Dining scenarios, the performance of brewing companies is expected to stabilize and grow in 2025.
Hong Kong stocks are moving differently | The liquor sector is collectively warming up with a strong overall consumer atmosphere during the Spring Festival. Baijiu is expected to recover, while Beer sales may improve.
The beverage Sector collectively rebounded; as of the time of writing, CHINA RES BEER (00291) rose by 5.94%, trading at 25.85 HKD; ZJLD (06979) increased by 4.21%, reaching 6.69 CNY; TSINGTAO BREW (00168) went up by 3.8%, priced at 51.9 HKD; BUD APAC (01876) climbed by 2.71%, valued at 7.58 HKD.
Tianfeng's beverage strategy for 2025: Endure until the clouds part and expectations lead the way.
The valuation/emotion of Baijiu(Chinese Liquor) has entered a historical relative bottom Range, Hold Positions of the Fund have hit bottom, it is recommended to focus on two major investment themes.
Bank of America Securities: Reiterates CHINA RES BEER (00291) "Buy" rating, Target Price adjusted to HKD 30.6.
Bank of America Securities predicts that the payout ratio of China Resources Beer will increase from 59% in 2023 to over 70% in the next three years.
Major bank rating | Bank of America: Downgrades CHINA RES BEER Target Price to HKD 30.6, still outperforms peers in a challenging market.
Bank of America Securities expects that CHINA RES BEER's revenue last year decreased by 1.4% (beer down 1.6%; Baijiu(Chinese Liquor) up 3%), and Net income fell by 7.5%. Excluding non-core government subsidies and disposal income, core earnings before tax may grow by 4%. The firm has lowered its earnings per share forecast for 2024/25 by 5%/4%, and reduced the Target Price by 7% to HKD 30.6. Nevertheless, Bank of America Securities still reiterates its 'Buy' rating, as it expects CHINA RES BEER to outperform the top three breweries in China in a challenging market, with the lowest sales decline of 3.1% in 2024, thanks to its proactive self-rescue measures.
Jefferies Adjusts China Resources Beer (Holdings)' Price Target to HK$34.40 From HK$37.38, Keeps at Buy
Individual Investors Own 29% of China Resources Beer (Holdings) Company Limited (HKG:291) Shares but Private Companies Control 52% of the Company
[Hong Kong Stock Connect] CHINA RES BEER (00291) rose nearly 3% as Institutions expect the company's beer sales growth to turn positive by 2025.
Jinwu Finance | CHINA RES BEER (00291) rose in the morning, breaking through the 20-day moving average. As of the time of publication, it is up 2.78%, priced at 24 Hong Kong dollars, with a transaction volume of 27.548 million Hong Kong dollars. Huaxing Securities previously mentioned in the Research Reports that consumer activities in the ready-to-drink channel are expected to recover by 2025, driving improvements in the product structure of the beer Industry. The firm also anticipates that China's Consumer Price Index (CPI) in 2025 will rise compared to 2024. Therefore, it predicts that the unit price growth of CHINA RES BEER in 2025 will accelerate from 2.0% in 2024 to 2.2%. Additionally, the firm expects the beer production of CHINA RES BEER.
[Brokerage Focus] Morgan Stanley: Demand expectations in China's Dining channel are relatively low before the Spring Festival, with differentiated performance across various categories.
Jinwu Financial News | Morgan Stanley recently conducted research on Dealers in northern, eastern, and southern China to understand sales trends before the Spring Festival and goals for 2025. It was found that there are significant differences in market performance across categories, with generally low demand expectations. In terms of Baijiu(Chinese Liquor), the start has been rather weak. Some Dealers of Moutai reported a decline in demand before the Spring Festival of 2025, and non-Flying Moutai series products are facing pricing pressure. However, Flying Moutai remains relatively strong, with differing goals among Dealers in various regions for 2025. For example, a Dealer in the north expects the target for Flying Moutai to remain flat, with double-digit growth for series products. Wuliangye Yibin's target for 2025 is 1.
Guojun's outlook for the food and beverage Industry in 2025: The industry is expected to see steady volume and price increases, with declining costs and rising profit margins.
It is expected that the Beer Industry sales will have a neutral outlook in 2025, the industry structure upgrade will continue, costs will keep declining, expenses will be stable, and the mid-term dividend rate is expected to increase.
GTJA: The Beer Industry is expected to stabilize in volume and price, with decreasing costs and improved profit margins.
Based on recent market research and calculations, the sales outlook for the Beer Industry in 2025 is neutral, the industry structure upgrade will continue, costs are expected to decline, expenditures will be stable, and mid-term dividend rates are likely to increase.
CICC: Maintain the rating of CHINA RES BEER (00291) as "outperform Industry" with a Target Price of 32.4 HKD.
CICC expects that CHINA RES BEER's revenue and profit will decline by a low single-digit year-on-year in 2024.
Getting In Cheap On China Resources Beer (Holdings) Company Limited (HKG:291) Is Unlikely
Hong Kong stocks in motion | Beer stocks collectively declined as the demand environment for 2024 is weak, impacting performance. The Beer Sector remains at a low valuation.
Beer stocks collectively declined; as of the time of writing, CHINA RES BEER (00291) dropped by 4.16%, priced at 23.05 HKD; BUD APAC (01876) fell by 2.77%, priced at 7.02 HKD; TSINGTAO BREW (00168) decreased by 1.02%, priced at 53.15 HKD.
Zhizhong Hong Kong Stock Short Selling Statistics | January 6th
Hong Kong Stock short selling Statistics | January 6.