[Brokerage Focus] Citic Sec expects the real estate industry in mainland China to continue to face multiple challenges in the short, medium and long term in the second half of the year.
Jingu Finance News | Citic Securities stated that the real estate industry is facing challenges and opportunities. It is expected that in the second half of 2024, the domestic real estate industry will continue to face multiple challenges in the short, medium, and long term. Prevention and resolution of risks in the real estate field are important contents of overall development and security. The bank believes that although forcing deleveraging without new capital may lead to sustained asset quality decline, excellent enterprises with financing channels will still reduce leverage to far lower levels in the medium and long term. There are fewer business opportunities in real estate development, but the requirement for precision farming in core cities is higher. This not only means that enterprises need
China Res Land has entered into a loan financing agreement with a bank for a fixed-term loan financing of up to 0.8 billion yuan.
China res land (01109) announced that on July 23, 2024, the company entered into a loan financing agreement with a bank for a maximum of 0.8 billion RMB as a borrower. The loan financing will be for a period of no more than three years from the date of the financing agreement.
China Res Land (01109.HK) received a loan of 0.8 billion yuan.
China Res Land (01109.HK) announced on July 23rd that on July 23rd, 2024, as a borrower, the company reached a loan financing agreement with a bank for a maximum of 0.8 billion RMB. The loan financing will be valid for no more than three years from the date of the financing agreement.
Express News | China Resources Land - Entered Into a Facility Agreement for a Term Loan Facility up to CNH800 Mln
Major bank ratings | Citigroup: It takes time for confidence in the mainland property market to recover, and a soft landing is taking shape. First choice for mainland real estate stocks are China Res Land and Ke Holdings.
According to a report by Citigroup, a survey of 3,000 households in mainland China's real estate market showed that 49% of sellers decided to retain cash or invest in stocks and bonds; only 19% gave up. 73% still prefer new buildings, but 60% require new housing units that have already been completed. 16% are looking for smaller areas; only 38% are more interested in buying after the recent policy announcements. 48% expect house prices to rise in the next two years; 38% budget an average of 0.158 million yuan for decoration. Citigroup believes that it will take time for confidence to recover in the mainland real estate market, and prefers stocks with cash flow and profitability under the trend of a soft landing, with a preference for Huawei as the first choice.
Sinolink Securities: Third Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee first proposed real estate. Second-hand housing prices in Beijing and Shanghai increased month-on-month.
The communique of the Third Plenary Session on the policy front first proposes to prevent and resolve real estate risks and point out the direction of future real estate development. It is expected that the previous policy of destocking will accelerate its implementation, restrictive policies will continue to be relaxed, and the new model of "indemnificatory apartments + commodity apartments" will accelerate its construction, speeding up the process of market stabilization.
Abnormal movement observation | Mainland real estate stocks fell during trading, with basic factors improving but residence prices continue to decline.
On July 19th, during trading hours, mainland real estate stocks were in decline. As of press time, China RES Land (01109.HK) fell 5.20% to HKD 25.5. Longfor Group (00960.HK) fell 4.75% to HKD 10.82. Seazen (01030.HK) fell 4.46% to HKD 1.5. According to news from Futubull, despite a decline in trading volume in several cities in July, the CRIC monitoring data shows that, thanks to favorable policies from central to local government since May, the market is still in a bullish trend.
Hong Kong Shares Fall, Tracking Wall Street's Losses -- Market Talk
[Brokerage Focus] ICBC International points out that the real estate market adjustment may be coming to an end.
Jingu finance news | CCB international said that according to statistics from the National Bureau of statistics, the Chinese real estate market showed significant improvement in June, mainly due to the promotion of the policies of "430" and "517". In June, the prices of new and second-hand houses in 70 major cities in China were declining both on a month-on-month and year-on-year basis, despite the more obvious seasonal impact in 2024, indicating that the downward trend in house prices was further intensified in June. The bank pointed out that, as previously reported, it is expected that the real estate market will gradually improve its fundamentals under the promotion of the "430" and "517" policies, although no major policies have been introduced in the past two months.
China Res Land's total contract sales in June were about 32 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 19%.
China res land (01109) announced that as of the end of June 2024, the company and its subsidiaries (group) achieved a total contract sales amount of about RMB 32 billion, and the total contract sales area was about 1.23 million square meters, increasing by 19.0% and decreasing by 8.1% annually. The accumulated contract sales amount for the first half of 2024 is about RMB 124.7 billion, and the total contract sales area is about 5.211 million square meters, decreasing by 26.7% and 25.7% annually. As of June 2024, the group's recurring business income was about RMB 4.16 billion.
Express News | China Resources Land - June Gross Contracted Sales RMB32.00 Bln
According to Zhongzhi Research Institute, the merger and acquisition activity in the real estate industry continued to increase in June.
According to Zhongzhi Research Institute monitoring, there were 17 merger and acquisition trades in the real estate industry in June 2024, an increase of 2 compared to the previous month.
Guosen Securities: Real estate stocks are at the bottom of the box shock and still have opportunities for speculation.
Zhongtong Finance APP learned that Guosen Securities released a research report, stating that in June, except for completion data, the month-on-month decline of other indicators such as real estate sales, investment and financing, and new construction has narrowed, but the base effect has a greater impact and the fundamentals have not shown a "real recovery" marked by "stable house prices", and even the "quasi-recovery" represented by the "narrowing decline" has a weakening trend. It is still impossible to determine when house prices will stop falling, making it difficult to give the true value of real estate assets. However, after a sharp correction in the real estate sector, it has squeezed out the previously overestimated expectations, and real estate stocks are at the bottom of the box shock, still with gaming opportunities. The individual stocks recommended are Hangzhou Binjiang Real Estate Group (00.
China Resources Land (HKG:1109) Shareholders Have Earned a 0.2% CAGR Over the Last Five Years
[Brokerage Focus] China's real estate sector may face downward pressure from July to August, according to CMB International.
Jin Wu News | CMB International stated that Guangzhou has further relaxed regulations allowing foreigners to purchase homes; The land auction market has become hot after canceling the price limit in high-energy-level cities, while low-energy-level cities are relatively weak, indicating that the market-oriented bidding mechanism will accelerate the balance of supply and demand. High-frequency data shows that the sales of new homes have fallen slightly since the peak in late June, while second-hand homes remain strong. From early July to now, the daily average transactions of new homes/second-hand homes have decreased by 21%/increased by 11% respectively compared to the daily averages in June. In terms of transaction observation in first-tier cities, the weekly transaction volume of new and second-hand homes in the 27th week has declined compared with the previous week. Compared with the weekly average transaction volume in the year, Shenzhen and Guangzhou have performed relatively stable.
GF Sec: Land Activation Fund Established, New Home Sales Turn Positive year-on-year in early July.
GF sec released research reports stating that the state-owned assets supervision and administration commission has set up a special fund for land consolidation with a total size of 30 billion yuan and requires central SOEs to report pilot projects to try to solve the problem of long-term high inventory in the real estate market. On the local policy side, this week still mainly focuses on relaxing housing provident fund policies and providing housing subsidies to boost demand, and various regions are still exploring new policies to stimulate demand.
[Brokerage Focus] Zhongyin International is optimistic about the real estate and property management sectors, pointing out that the stock prices in the sectors will maintain a repairing trend in the medium to long term.
Jingu Financial News | Zhongyin International said it is optimistic about the real estate and property management sectors. The bank sees Beijing lowering the down payment ratio by 10-15 percentage points and lowering the housing loan interest rate by 30-55 basis points. Consistent with the bank's previous expectations, the minimum down payment ratio and housing loan interest rate restrictions in Beijing have been lowered to the same level as Shanghai and Shenzhen. As for the purchase restriction policy, according to the bank's policy relaxation timetable, there is still some room for Beijing, Shenzhen and Shanghai. As of June 26th, looking at the average daily transaction area before and after the 517 new policy, the new house market in 30 cities and the second-hand house market in 17 cities have both increased by 25%, which may be stimulated by the new policy, and the concentration of the end of the half year on the internet.
htsc: The land market supply and demand continues to be weak, focusing on real estate companies with core urban resources.
The land market is still weakly running in the first half of 2024, and the trend of shrinking volume continues, while the previously maintained rising transaction average price also decreased year-on-year in the first half of the year.
Mainland real estate stocks fell across the board. Agile Group (03383) fell by 3.47%. From today on, personal mortgage loans for housing projects with a capped main structure will be strictly implemented.
Inside the mainland real estate sector, the decline continued. As of press time, Agile Group (03383) fell by 3.47%, CIFI Hold GP (00884) fell by 3.03%, China RES Land (01109) fell by 1.79%, Sunac (01918) and China Vanke (02202) followed suit. In terms of news, it has been reported that several commercial banks in Shenzhen have required that personal housing mortgage loans can only be lent after the main structure has been capped. In other words, banks will only issue personal housing mortgage loans for housing projects in which the main structure has already been topped off. The relevant regulations will be formally implemented from the 5th. Bank of China.
Major bank rating | CICC International Securities: High-quality state-owned real estate companies in mainland China resume growth in June, preferring China Overseas, Greentown China, and Poly Developments and Holdings Group.
According to a report by China International Capital Corporation, high-quality state-owned real estate developers in mainland China have resumed growth in June, with significant improvement in contract sales of major developers, averaging a 20% monthly increase. The improvement reflects seasonal factors and basic improvement. Poly Developments and Holdings Group, China Overseas Land & Investment, China Resources Land, China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings, Greentown China, Agile International Holdings, Yuexiu Property and China Fortune Land Development Co Ltd all ended their downward trend in the past twelve months, with China Overseas Land & Investment recording a 40% year-on-year increase in contract sales in June. The data shows that both the first-hand and second-hand markets have improved, and the adjustment of housing prices has supported market recovery. The reduction in land supply has enabled the market to balance, and it is believed that the medium-term recovery is supported by improvement
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