It's once again the annual mortgage repricing day, and Banks personnel candidly state that "revenue pressure is increasing." How to stabilize the interest margin under the expectation of interest rate cuts?
① With the arrival of the repricing cycle on January 1st, many industry professionals who spoke with reporters from the Financial Association stated that "revenue pressure is increasing." ② Looking ahead to 2025, many experts believe that the policy interest rates need to be further lowered during the year, and mortgage rates will continue to decline. ③ From the perspective of the Industry, controlling costs remains the primary measure each bank is taking to ease the downward pressure on interest margins.
Key cities in the real estate market showed a "tail-end" finish in December last year, with expectations for year-on-year growth still being positive in the first quarter.
In December, the real estate market concluded with a "tail-up" trend, and it is expected that there will still be positive year-on-year growth in the first quarter.
At the end of 2024, the top 100 real estate companies will see a rebound in sales, with the number of companies exceeding one billion reduced to 11.
By the end of 2024, the sales of the top 100 real estate companies will show a tail end market trend; the number of billion-yuan and hundred-million-yuan real estate companies continues to decrease, with the number of billion-yuan companies further reduced to 11 in 2024, returning to the level of 2016.
Hong Kong stocks are experiencing fluctuations | Most Mainland Real Estate stocks are down as the top 100 property companies continue to consolidate their sales in 2024, and the Industry landscape continues to differentiate.
Most Mainland Real Estate stocks fell. As of the time of writing, CH OVS G OCEANS (00081) dropped 3.39%, trading at 1.71 Hong Kong dollars; SEAZEN (01030) fell 3.3%, trading at 1.76 Hong Kong dollars; RONSHINECHINA (03301) decreased by 2.67%, trading at 0.365 Hong Kong dollars.
Kerry Real Estate: It takes time for the real estate market recovery to translate into investment. It is expected that corporate investment will continue to be cautious and differentiated next year.
In 2025, the core cities are expected to see localized investment hot spots, led by state-owned enterprises.
2024 Shenzhen real estate summary: A record has been broken.
The housing market is facing headwinds.
Year-end review | In 2024, the CNI Yangtze Index mortgage rates will experience a "three consecutive declines". The LPR in 2025 is expected to continue to decrease, and mortgage rates are likely to stabilize at a low level.
① This year, the LPR has experienced three significant reductions, with the one-year LPR down a total of 35 basis points and the five-year LPR down a total of 60 basis points, both annual declines reaching new highs since the LPR reform. ② After the re-pricing at the beginning of 2025, the interest rate for existing first-time home loans will decrease by a total of 110 basis points to 3.3%. From the perspective of Consumer, the reduction in interest rates on existing home loans significantly boosts Consumer spending.
Brokerage morning meeting highlights: It is expected that 2025 will be the first year when the Real Estate Industry truly achieves stability and long-term development.
At today's Brokerage morning meeting, CITIC SEC proposed that 2025 will be the year when the Real Estate Industry truly stabilizes and moves forward; Tianfeng stated that industry demand is expected to recover, and the Autos Sector may gradually become optimistic; China Securities Co.,Ltd. pointed out that the current valuation of the Baijiu(Chinese Liquor) Sector remains low overall, highlighting its long-term investment value.
The land market in core cities is partially heated in 2024, and a differentiated market trend may continue next year | Promoting the stabilization of the real estate market.
① In 2024, changes in the Real Estate Industry's land market will become an undeniable chapter. ② The support of special bonds for the acquisition of existing land and the adjustment of land auction policies in first-tier cities may have a significant impact on the future land market.
Hong Kong stock movement | Mainland Real Estate stocks fell broadly in the early session, with many stocks declining over 3%. Institutions stated that the Sector is under pressure, reflecting the market's ongoing doubts about the sustainability of transac
Mainland Real Estate stocks fell broadly in the morning session. As of the time of this report, SINO-OCEAN GP (03377) dropped 5.6% to HKD 0.236; SUNAC (01918) fell 3.8% to HKD 2.28; R&F PROPERTIES (02777) declined 3.57% to HKD 1.35; SEAZEN (01030) decreased 2.23% to HKD 1.75.
Kerry Real Estate Research: In 2024, the national land transaction scale will continue to shrink as inventory decreases, and the support from city investment will remain strong.
According to a report released by CRIC Real Estate Research, it is expected that by 2025, more high-quality and high-priced land parcels will be transacted, and in terms of trade scale, it is also expected to stabilize at a low level that matches the scale of Commodity transactions.
Why has the implementation of Real Estate 'acquisition' been slow?
① "Although some places have announced the situation of storage, overall, the acquisition of stock land and commercial housing in various regions faces multiple difficulties, making the related implementation work not easy." ② Whether it is repurchasing idle land or acquiring existing commercial housing, there is a certain time interval from raising funds to completing the storage; how to ensure that funds can be effectively circulated within a certain period and achieve expected returns is also a factor that various regions have to consider.
Kaisa Group Moves Forward With Debt Restructuring
Express News | Kaisa Group - Substantive Hearing of Petition Scheduled to Be Held on 21 March 2025
Express News | Kaisa Group - High Court Granted Order for Company and Rui Jing to Convene Meetings of Kaisa Scheme Creditors and Rui Jing Scheme Creditors
Express News | Kaisa Group - Further Information in Relation to Offshore Debt Restructuring
Market Chatter: Kaisa Gets Court Approval for Creditor Vote on Restructuring
Kaisa Group Secures Shareholder Approval for Key Resolutions
Express News | Kaisa Group - Passed Resolution to Approve, Confirm and Ratify Mcb Issue and Transactions Contemplated Thereunder
According to the Central Finger Research Institute: In November, the average transaction price of second-hand Residences in 100 cities fell by 0.57% month-on-month, while the Volume in Shenzhen doubled year-on-year.
Data monitoring shows that in November 2024, the average price of second-hand Residences in 100 cities is 14,278 yuan per square meter, a month-on-month decrease of 0.57%, narrowing the decline by 0.03 percentage points compared to October; a year-on-year decrease of 7.29%.