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[Brokerage Focus] SWHY expects the Real Estate Industry to bottom out and maintains a 'Bullish' rating on Real Estate and property management.
Gold Eagle Financial News | SWHY stated that over the past three years, China's Real Estate sector has undergone deep adjustments, and the effects of relaxed policies during this period have been limited. The bank believes that the core issue lies not in insufficient demand, but in the weakening of residents' balance sheets. The statements in September to 'stop the decline and stabilize' and in December to 'stabilize the Real Estate and stock markets' clarified the policy approach to repairing residents' balance sheets, demonstrating stronger policy effectiveness than before. The policy has entered a more targeted trajectory, and it is expected that more proactive and substantial policies will be introduced subsequently, with the Industry likely to reach a bottom. Considering that mid-term demand has support but short-term supply has constraints, the bank forecasts that the total will still be skewed next year.
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Mainland real estate stocks fell across the board, yuexiu property (00123) decreased by 3.33%, and the sales of the top 100 real estate companies fell compared to the previous month.
Jinwu Financial News | Mainland real estate stocks are all down, with Yuexiu property (00123) falling 3.33%, c&d intl group (01908) down 3.03%, longfor group (00960) down 2.89%, shimao group (00813) down 2.54%, and china overseas (00688) down 2.33%. According to the report from Zhongyou Securities, data from CRIC indicates that in November, the top 100 real estate companies achieved a sales amount of 363.35 billion yuan, a month-on-month decline of 16.6%, but still an increase of 44.3% compared to September; a year-on-year decrease of 6.9%, with the single-month performance drop being lower than in previous years.
Ping An Securities: Typical urban suburban areas have accumulated inventory and long turnover periods. It is expected that the bottoming out will lag behind the improvement of core areas and good products in the sector.
The path for the real estate industry to "stop falling and stabilize" will follow: "Good products — core areas in first-tier and second-tier cities — stabilization of the national economy — stabilization of the national housing market — stabilization of investment". Low-tier areas (suburbs of second-tier cities + third and fourth-tier cities) are hindered by high inventory levels, leading to a relatively delayed stabilization.
Guolian: The effects of the policy are becoming apparent, with marginal improvements in property/a-reit market sales in October.
According to the national statistics released in January-October 2024, the report on the basic situation of the national real estate market shows that the year-on-year decline in sales area, sales amount, and completed area has all narrowed.
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