The impact of Trump's tariffs: Institutions analyze the logic and strategy choices of Bond investment from five dimensions | Fixed Income Chief Market Commentary.
① Following the Trump administration's announcement of an additional 54% tariff on China, the Chinese bond market reacted sharply, highlighting the bonds' safe-haven attributes; ② The market quickly priced the bond market, and institutions expect the central bank to prioritize using structural tools to cut interest rates, with an increased probability of a reserve requirement ratio cut in May.
Cailian Press C50 Wind Direction Index Survey: In March, Crediting may be on par with the same period in 2024, government bonds maintain substantial issuance, driving social financing to increase year-on-year.
① New RMB loans in March may be around 3 trillion yuan, basically unchanged from the same period last year; ② The government's bond issuance remains at a high level in March, which may boost year-on-year growth in social financing; ③ The market anticipates that the year-on-year growth rate of the CPI in March is likely to rebound, while the decline in the PPI may remain stable compared to the previous month.
The risk of economic recession is accumulating, and Pimco is Bullish on Global Bonds bringing stable returns.
As the chances of a recession in the USA rise, Pacific Investment Management Company (Pimco) emphasizes the appeal of Global Bonds as a "source of stable returns."
Several signs indicate that liquidity is shifting towards easing.
Sinolink believes that recent circumstances are changing: the central bank released the quarterly meeting transcript on March 21, the earliest in recent years; on March 24, there was a net injection of 63 billion yuan in liquidity, marking the first net injection of 2024; recently, market funding rates have decreased, and the difference between DR007 and OMO rates has gradually narrowed. It is expected that the central bank may first use quantitative tools such as restarting government bond purchases, expanding the reverse repurchase agreements, or lowering the reserve requirement ratio to release liquidity.
Focusing on the high-quality development of the China debt market, the 2025 ICMA China Debt Capital Markets Annual Conference was held in Beijing.
On March 19, the 2025 ICMA China Debt Capital Markets Annual Conference, organized by the International Capital Markets Association (ICMA), was held in Beijing.
The central bank has been conducting hundred billion reverse repurchase operations for several consecutive days, signaling its support for the liquidity situation. What will be the trend moving forward?
① In the past three days, the central bank has continuously conducted reverse repurchase operations worth hundreds of billions, clearly signaling support for market liquidity. ② Market participants point out that the net injection scale is relatively limited and has not changed the upward trend of short-term interest rates. This may reflect policy objectives aimed at preventing funds from idling and curbing a rapid decline in long-term bond yields. ③ The possibility of the central bank stimulating a relaxation of market liquidity through large-scale liquidity injection is relatively low.
