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【Brokerage Focus】CITIC SEC expects fluctuations in the capital market in February, with the annual credit expansion pace possibly showing a "low at both ends and high in the middle".
Jinwu Finance | CITIC SEC stated that looking at the forward financial data, due to factors at the beginning of the year combined with a high base figure, the bank expects the increase in RMB loans in January to approach 5 trillion yuan, and the growth rate of social financing is expected to maintain around 8.0%. The favorable start to lending at the beginning of the year and the government's proactive fiscal measures, along with the multidimensional effects of precise regulation by monetary authorities, have resulted in a neutral to tight funding environment in January. Looking ahead, the sustainability of the favorable start to lending, the pace of government bond issuance, and the intensity of liquidity injections by the central bank may be core determining factors for the funding market and credit market in the next stage. The funding market in February is expected to have space for fluctuations, and the pace of credit expansion for the whole year may present.
Citigroup: It is expected that the Bank of Communications and CQRC BANK exceeded expectations with significant earnings growth last quarter.
Citigroup released a research report stating that based on the latest operational trends, the expected year-on-year changes in revenue/profit for banks in the interior are projected to be 0% and +2.1% respectively, compared to -1.2% and +1.4% in the first nine months. The main reasons include the impact of the 924 policy, expecting significant growth in retail loans in the fourth quarter; in the fourth quarter, due to the rise in the bond market, substantial trading profits are anticipated; and the low performance base of Q4 2023 provides a favorable comparison for growth. Among the banks covered by Citigroup, Bank Of Communications (03328) and CQRC BANK (03618) are expected to perform well in 2024.
CITIC SEC: The Banks Sector returns to the fundamental framework, focusing on absolute return opportunities.
The difference between the dividend yield and the risk-free yield has widened, which also implies an enhancement in the potential allocation strength of Banks stocks.
Ciwen Media Co.,Ltd. (002343.SZ): Obtained the commitment letter for the Share Buyback special loan from Financial Institutions.
On February 7, Gelonghui reported that Ciwen Media Co.,Ltd. (002343.SZ) announced it has received a "Share Buyback Shareholding Loan Commitment Letter" issued by the Jiangxi branch of the Bank Of Communications, which commits to providing the company with a loan of up to 18 million yuan, specifically for the purpose of repurchasing the company's shares.
The central bank: In January, the operations of the standing lending facility for Financial Institutions totaled 17.105 billion yuan.
In January 2025, the People's Bank conducted standing lending facility operations for Financial Institutions totaling 17.105 billion yuan, including 11.335 billion yuan for overnight, 1.77 billion yuan for 7-day, and 4 billion yuan for 1-month periods.
After the emergence of DeepSeek, multiple Banks have initiated in-depth research testing, and the implementation of large models in the Industry is still in open exploration.
Several Banks' fintech leaders have expressed to the Financial Associated Press that they are already paying attention to and beginning to study the impact of DeepSeek on bank fintech. As models like DeepSeek can greatly reduce training and usage costs, they will provide significant assistance for the future widespread application of large models in Banks. However, large models in the banking system are still in the phase of open exploration.
