2024 Shenzhen real estate summary: A record has been broken.
The housing market is facing headwinds.
Year-end review | In 2024, the CNI Yangtze Index mortgage rates will experience a "three consecutive declines". The LPR in 2025 is expected to continue to decrease, and mortgage rates are likely to stabilize at a low level.
① This year, the LPR has experienced three significant reductions, with the one-year LPR down a total of 35 basis points and the five-year LPR down a total of 60 basis points, both annual declines reaching new highs since the LPR reform. ② After the re-pricing at the beginning of 2025, the interest rate for existing first-time home loans will decrease by a total of 110 basis points to 3.3%. From the perspective of Consumer, the reduction in interest rates on existing home loans significantly boosts Consumer spending.
Brokerage morning meeting highlights: It is expected that 2025 will be the first year when the Real Estate Industry truly achieves stability and long-term development.
At today's Brokerage morning meeting, CITIC SEC proposed that 2025 will be the year when the Real Estate Industry truly stabilizes and moves forward; Tianfeng stated that industry demand is expected to recover, and the Autos Sector may gradually become optimistic; China Securities Co.,Ltd. pointed out that the current valuation of the Baijiu(Chinese Liquor) Sector remains low overall, highlighting its long-term investment value.
The land market in core cities is partially heated in 2024, and a differentiated market trend may continue next year | Promoting the stabilization of the real estate market.
① In 2024, changes in the Real Estate Industry's land market will become an undeniable chapter. ② The support of special bonds for the acquisition of existing land and the adjustment of land auction policies in first-tier cities may have a significant impact on the future land market.
Hong Kong stock movement | Mainland Real Estate stocks fell broadly in the early session, with many stocks declining over 3%. Institutions stated that the Sector is under pressure, reflecting the market's ongoing doubts about the sustainability of transac
Mainland Real Estate stocks fell broadly in the morning session. As of the time of this report, SINO-OCEAN GP (03377) dropped 5.6% to HKD 0.236; SUNAC (01918) fell 3.8% to HKD 2.28; R&F PROPERTIES (02777) declined 3.57% to HKD 1.35; SEAZEN (01030) decreased 2.23% to HKD 1.75.
China Resources Land Limited (HKG:1109) Stock Most Popular Amongst Private Companies Who Own 60%, While Individual Investors Hold 25%
CHINA RES LAND (01109): Dou Jian resigns as Non-Executive Director.
CHINA RES LAND (01109) announced that Dou Jian will resign due to Other work arrangements, effective from December 27, 2024...
Citi: Maintains CHINA RES LAND (01109) 'Buy' rating with a Target Price of HKD 32.7.
Citi expects that the sales revenue from CHINA RES LAND's top four self-developed projects will have a gross margin of 10%-15%.
Mainland Real Estate stocks weakened, LONGFOR GROUP (00960) fell by 2.89%. Institutions expect the national sales area of commercial housing to decline by 6.3% year-on-year next year.
Jinwu Finance | Mainland Real Estate stocks are weakening. As of the time of publication, SINO-OCEAN GP (03377) fell by 3.77%, RONSHINECHINA (03301) fell by 3.75%, LONGFOR GROUP (00960) fell by 2.89%, CHINA OVERSEAS (00688) fell by 2.24%, and CHINA RES LAND (01109) fell by 1.96%. In terms of news, the China Index Academy stated that new home sales in 2025 still face some challenges, such as: residents' income expectations have not fundamentally reversed, insufficient effective supply, and the 'substitution effect' from the second-hand housing market on new homes, etc. In a neutral scenario, it is expected that the nationwide Commodity housing market will...
Kerry Real Estate Research: In 2024, the national land transaction scale will continue to shrink as inventory decreases, and the support from city investment will remain strong.
According to a report released by CRIC Real Estate Research, it is expected that by 2025, more high-quality and high-priced land parcels will be transacted, and in terms of trade scale, it is also expected to stabilize at a low level that matches the scale of Commodity transactions.
Why has the implementation of Real Estate 'acquisition' been slow?
① "Although some places have announced the situation of storage, overall, the acquisition of stock land and commercial housing in various regions faces multiple difficulties, making the related implementation work not easy." ② Whether it is repurchasing idle land or acquiring existing commercial housing, there is a certain time interval from raising funds to completing the storage; how to ensure that funds can be effectively circulated within a certain period and achieve expected returns is also a factor that various regions have to consider.
China Resources Land Appoints New President Xu Rong
CHINA RES LAND (01109.HK): Xu Rong was appointed as president.
On December 23, 格隆汇 reported that CHINA RES LAND (01109.HK) announced that its Executive Director Xu Rong has been appointed as the Company's President and a member of the Corporate Social Responsibility Committee of the Company, effective December 23, 2024.
Express News | China Resources Land - Xu Rong Has Been Appointed as President
Mainland Real Estate stocks fell with the market, ZHONGLIANG HLDG (02772) decreased by 5.79%. Institutions expect that December transactions will continue to recover.
Jinwu Finance | Mainland Real Estate stocks decline with the market, ZHONGLIANG HLDG (02772) down 5.79%, CHINA VANKE (02202) down 4.2%, RADIANCE HLDGS (09993) down 3.32%, CHINA JINMAO (00817) down 2.97%, CHINA OVERSEAS (00688), LONGFOR GROUP (00960), CHINA RES LAND (01109) down over 1%. The Pacific Securities Research indicates that in November, the sales volume and sales area of commercial housing nationwide turned positive year-on-year, with buyers' confidence in purchasing homes recovering, showing signs of market improvement. Funding availability in Real Estate has improved, as December is generally a time for developers.
China Galaxy Securities: Monthly sales area in real estate turned positive year-on-year, and the effects of policies are gradually becoming apparent.
China Galaxy Securities released a research report stating that from January to November 2024, the cumulative sales area and sales amount both showed a narrower decline compared to the previous month, with a year-on-year positive growth in sales area for the month of November.
According to the Central Finger Research Institute: In November, the average transaction price of second-hand Residences in 100 cities fell by 0.57% month-on-month, while the Volume in Shenzhen doubled year-on-year.
Data monitoring shows that in November 2024, the average price of second-hand Residences in 100 cities is 14,278 yuan per square meter, a month-on-month decrease of 0.57%, narrowing the decline by 0.03 percentage points compared to October; a year-on-year decrease of 7.29%.
Keari Real Estate Research: In November, the Residence market transactions maintained a high level for the year.
In November, the supply scale grew month-on-month and year-on-year, with the supply volume in 100 typical cities at 15.07 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 26.3%, but a month-on-month increase of 43.4%.
[Brokerage Focus] SWHY expects the Real Estate Industry to bottom out and maintains a 'Bullish' rating on Real Estate and property management.
Gold Eagle Financial News | SWHY stated that over the past three years, China's Real Estate sector has undergone deep adjustments, and the effects of relaxed policies during this period have been limited. The bank believes that the core issue lies not in insufficient demand, but in the weakening of residents' balance sheets. The statements in September to 'stop the decline and stabilize' and in December to 'stabilize the Real Estate and stock markets' clarified the policy approach to repairing residents' balance sheets, demonstrating stronger policy effectiveness than before. The policy has entered a more targeted trajectory, and it is expected that more proactive and substantial policies will be introduced subsequently, with the Industry likely to reach a bottom. Considering that mid-term demand has support but short-term supply has constraints, the bank forecasts that the total will still be skewed next year.
【Brokerage Focus】 Citigroup: In China, the completed area of the Real Estate market is increasing, Real Estate Investment is declining, new construction is weak, and the price drop is decreasing.
Jinwu Finance News | Citibank pointed out in its latest research report that in November 2024, data from China's National Statistics Bureau indicates an increase in the completed area of the Real Estate market, but a decline in Real Estate Investment, with new construction remaining weak, while the rate of decline in housing prices has narrowed. Specifically, the completed area in November decreased by 39% year-on-year, the largest drop of the year, partly due to delays in completions caused by the pandemic at the end of 2023; the new construction area fell by 26.8% year-on-year; housing prices in both the primary and secondary markets across 70 cities have declined, but the decline has narrowed; sales increased by 1% year-on-year.